Understanding how wildfires influence our planet’s climate is a daunting challenge. Although fire occurs nearly everywhere on Earth and has always been present, it is still one of the least understood components of the Earth system. Recently, unprecedented fire activity has been observed in boreal (northern) and Arctic regions, which has drawn the scientific community’s attention to areas whose role in the future of our planet remains a mystery. Climate change likely has a major role in this alarming trend. However, high-latitude wildfires are not just a symptom of climate change; they are an accelerating force that could shape the future of our climate in ways that we are currently incapable of predicting.
了解野火如何影响我们星球的气候是一个艰巨的挑战。尽管大火几乎在地球上发生，并且一直存在，但它仍然是地球系统中最了解的组成部分之一。最近，在北极（北部）和北极地区观察到了前所未有的火灾活动，这引起了科学界的关注，其关注其在我们地球未来的领域仍然是一个谜。气候变化可能在这一令人震惊的趋势中起着重要作用。但是，高纬度野火不仅是气候变化的症状。它们是一种加速力量，可以以我们目前无法预测的方式来影响我们气候的未来。
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The rising threat of northern fires
北火的威胁不断上升
As global temperatures rise, wildfires are advancing further north and reaching into the Arctic. Canada, Alaska, Siberia, Scandinavia and even Greenland, all in northern high-latitude regions, have recently experienced some of the most intense and prolonged wildfire seasons on record. With climate change occurring more rapidly in these areas, the future of northern fires appears even grimmer.
随着全球温度的升高，野火正向北前进并伸向北极。加拿大，阿拉斯加，西伯利亚，斯堪的纳维亚半岛甚至格陵兰岛都位于北部高纬度地区，最近经历了有记录以来一些最激烈，最长时间的野火季节。随着气候变化在这些地区的迅速发生，北部火灾的未来似乎甚至变得更加严峻。
Apart from typical forest fires that consume surface vegetation, many high-latitude fires burn through peat, the dense, carbon-rich layers of partially decayed organic material. Despite covering only 3% of the terrestrial surface, peatlands are one of the world’s most important carbon storage environments, containing around 25% of the carbon existing in the Earth’s soils.
除了典型的森林火灾消耗表面植被外，许多高纬度火被泥炭燃烧，泥炭是部分腐烂的有机材料的密集，富含碳的层。尽管仅覆盖了陆地表面的3％，但泥炭地是世界上最重要的碳存储环境之一，其中约有25％的土壤中存在的碳。
Climate warming, which is even faster at high northern latitudes due to polar amplification – the phenomenon of greater climate change near the poles compared to the rest of the hemisphere or globe – is increasing the vulnerability of these ecosystems to fire, with potentially severe implications for the global climate. When peatlands ignite, they release massive amounts of “fossil carbon” that have been locked away for centuries or even millennia. The largest and most persistent fires on Earth, peat fires can smoulder for extended periods, are difficult to extinguish and can continue burning underground throughout the winter, only to reignite on the surface in spring. They have recently been described as “zombie” fires.
气候变暖在极地放大引起的北纬度地区甚至更快 - 与半球或地球的其余部分相比，杆子附近的气候变化更大的现象正在增加这些生态系统对火灾的脆弱性，并具有对全球气候的潜在严重影响。当泥炭地点燃时，它们释放了大量的“化石碳”，这些“化石碳”已被锁定了几个世纪甚至几千年。泥炭大火是地球上最大，最持续的火势，可以长时间闷烧，难以熄灭，并且可以在整个冬季继续在地下燃烧，只能在春季终止地面。他们最近被描述为“僵尸”大火。
Warmer and drier conditions driven by climate change, apart from making boreal forests more flammable, are expected to intensify and increase the frequency of peat fires, potentially transforming peatlands from carbon sinks into net sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Such a shift could trigger a feedback loop, meaning that a warming climate will cause more carbon emissions, which in turn will accelerate climate change.
由于气候变化驱动的温暖和干燥的条件，除了使北方森林更易燃外，还有望加剧和增加泥炭火的频率，可能会将泥炭地从碳水槽转化为温室气体排放的净来源。这种转变可能会触发反馈回路，这意味着温暖的气候将导致更多的碳排放，从而加速气候变化。
Air pollution and weather patterns
空气污染和天气模式
Wildfires release large quantities of smoke particles (aerosols) into the atmosphere, contributing significantly to both local and widespread air quality degradation. These particles are harmful to human health and can cause serious respiratory and cardiovascular problems, while prolonged exposure may lead to smoke-induced stress, hospitalizations and increased mortality. Wildfires can also cause mental health strains associated with evacuations, loss of homes, livelihoods and lives.
野火将大量的烟雾颗粒（气溶胶）释放到大气中，这对局部和广泛的空气质量降解产生了重大贡献。这些颗粒对人类健康有害，可能导致严重的呼吸道和心血管问题，而长时间暴露可能会导致烟雾引起的压力，住院和死亡率增加。野火还可能导致与疏散，房屋丧失，生计和生活有关的心理健康菌株。
Read more: Wildfire smoke can harm your brain, not just your lungs
阅读更多：野火烟可能会伤害您的大脑，而不仅仅是肺部
Beyond their long-term effects on climate, wildfire emissions can also influence weather patterns in more short-term ways via their impacts on atmospheric pollution levels. Smoke particles interact with sunlight and cloud formation processes, subsequently affecting temperatures, wind patterns and rainfall.
除了对气候的长期影响外，野火排放还可以通过对大气污染水平的影响以更短期的方式影响天气模式。烟雾颗粒与阳光和云形成过程相互作用，随后影响温度，风模式和降雨。
For example, our recent study on the large-scale atmospheric impacts of the 2023 Canadian wildfires, which we presented at the European Geosciences Union general assembly this spring, demonstrated that wildfire aerosols led to a surface air temperature decrease that expanded to the entire northern hemisphere. The cooling was particularly pronounced over Canada (up to -5.5°C in August), where the emissions were located, but was also significant over remote areas such as Eastern Europe and even Siberia (up to around -2.5°C in July). The average hemispheric temperature anomaly we calculated (close to -1°C) highlights the potential for large regional emissions from wildfires to perturb weather conditions for weeks across a whole hemisphere, with profound implications for forecasting. Unreliable weather forecasts can disrupt daily activities and pose risks to public safety, especially during extreme events such as heatwaves or storms. They also have serious consequences for industries such as farming, fishing and transport, where planning depends heavily on accurate, timely predictions.
例如，我们最近在今年春季在欧洲地球科学联盟大会上提出的2023次加拿大野火的大规模大气影响的研究表明，野火气溶胶导致表面空气温度降低，从而扩展到整个北半球。在加拿大（八月的八月至-5.5°C）上，冷却尤其明显，但在偏远地区（例如东欧甚至西伯利亚）（7月在7月的-2.5°C左右）也很重要。我们计算得出的平均半球温度异常（接近-1°C）突出了整个半球几周内从野火到扰动天气条件的大型区域排放的潜力，对预测产生了深远的影响。不可靠的天气预报会破坏日常活动，并为公共安全带来风险，尤其是在热浪或风暴等极端事件中。它们还对诸如农业，钓鱼和运输等行业产生了严重的后果，在这些行业中，计划在很大程度上取决于准确，及时的预测。
Peat fires and the climate puzzle
泥炭火和气候难题
While incorporating peatland fire feedbacks into Earth System Models (ESMs) is essential for accurate climate projections, most existing models lack a representation of peat fires. Understanding the smouldering behaviour of organic soils when they burn, their ignition probability, and how these processes can be represented at a global scale is of utmost importance. Recent research efforts are focusing on bridging this knowledge gap. For example, at the Technical University of Crete, we are collaborating with the Hazelab research group at Imperial College London and the Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society to perform field research and cutting-edge experiments) on peat smouldering, with the aim of shedding light on the complex mechanisms of peat fires.
尽管将泥炭地火反馈纳入地球系统模型（ESM）对于准确的气候预测至关重要，但大多数现有模型都缺乏泥炭火的代表。了解有机土壤燃烧时的闷烧行为，其点火概率以及如何在全球范围内代表这些过程至关重要。最近的研究工作着重于弥合这一知识差距。例如，在克里特岛技术大学，我们正在与伦敦帝国学院的Hazelab研究小组和Leverhulme野火中心，环境和社会中心进行泥炭闷烧的实地研究和尖端实验），目的是揭示有关泥炭大火的复杂机制的启示。
Integrating these lab results into ESMs will enable game-changing fire emission modelling, which holds potential for groundbreaking outcomes when it comes to our skill level for predicting the future of the Earth’s climate. By quantifying how the present-day atmosphere is influenced by fire emissions from boreal forests and peatlands, we can enhance the quality of projections of global temperature rise. This integration will also sharpen forecasts of regional climate impacts driven by fire-related aerosols, such as changes in rainfall patterns or accelerated Arctic ice melt.
将这些实验室结果整合到ESM中将实现改变游戏规则的火灾排放建模，这在预测地球气候的未来方面具有突破性结果的潜力。通过量化当今大气如何受到北方森林和泥炭地的火灾排放的影响，我们可以提高全球温度升高的质量。这种整合还将加强对与火灾相关的气溶胶驱动的区域气候影响的预测，例如降雨模式的变化或加速的北极冰融化。
Tackling the challenge of northern fires
应对北部火灾的挑战
Undoubtedly, we have entered an era of more frequent megafires – wildfires of extreme size, intensity, duration or impacts – with catastrophic consequences. Recent megafire events at boreal and Arctic regions unveil the dramatic change in wildfire patterns in northern high latitudes, which is a matter that demands urgent attention and action.
毫无疑问，我们进入了一个更频繁的巨型速度（极端大小，强度，持续时间或影响的野火）的时代，并带来了灾难性的后果。北极和北极地区最近发生的大型事件揭示了北部高纬度地区野火模式的急剧变化，这是需要紧急关注和行动的问题。
As the planet continues to warm, high-latitude fires are expected to help shape the future of our planet. Massive wildfire events, such as those in Canada in 2023, not only burned millions of hectares but also forced hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate their homes. Unprecedented amounts of smoke blanketed parts of North America in hazardous air, prompting school closures and health warnings, and obliging citizens to remain indoors for days. Events like this reflect a growing trend. They underscore why advancing research to better understand and predict the dynamics of northern peat and forest fires, and to mitigate their climate impacts, is not only a scientific imperative but also a moral responsibility.
随着星球继续温暖，预计高纬度的火有助于塑造我们星球的未来。大规模的野火事件，例如2023年在加拿大的活动，不仅烧毁了数百万公顷的事件，而且还迫使成千上万的人撤离房屋。北美空气中空气中淹没的烟雾部分，促使学校关闭和卫生警告，并使公民在室内持续数天。这样的事件反映了增长的趋势。他们强调了为什么进步的研究更好地理解和预测北泥炭和森林火灾的动态，并减轻其气候影响，这不仅是科学的当务之急，而且是道德责任。
Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the Axa Research Fund has supported nearly 700 projects around the world conducted by researchers in 38 countries. To learn more, visit the website of the Axa Research Fund or follow @AXAResearchFund on X.
AXA研究基金会创建于2007年，旨在帮助加速和分享有关关键社会问题的科学知识，支持了38个国家研究人员在全球范围内近700个项目。要了解更多信息，请访问AXA研究基金的网站或关注X上的@AxaresearchFund。
