Some dreams do come true.
一些梦想成真。
At night, I dream of the rising screech of sirens across Jerusalem, of running to a bomb shelter, of thinking wildly about my grown children elsewhere in Israel dashing through dark streets for safety as missiles whoosh overhead. I dream of distant booms that I hope are interceptions and not direct hits on apartment buildings.
到了晚上，我梦想着耶路撒冷各地的警笛声不断上升，跑到炸弹庇护所，疯狂地思考着我在以色列其他地方的成年子女在黑暗的街道上冲刺，以确保将导弹wheosh头顶上方的导弹who。我梦想着遥远的繁荣，我希望这是拦截，而不是在公寓楼上直接命中。
I wake to a chorus of sirens and to the harsh clack of the army’s Home Front Command app on my phone, announcing how many minutes we have to seek cover. Outside, running to the shelter, I see the red flash of rocket engines overhead and their long white trails, and I hear far-off explosions. After the all clear, I get texts from my children: “Safe.” News flashes appear of buildings hit in other cities by Iranian missiles that evaded interception, and of the search for the wounded and dead.
我在手机上醒来时，醒来时，宣布我们必须寻求封面几分钟。在外面，跑到庇护所，我看到了头顶上的火箭发动机及其长长的白色小径，我听到了遥远的爆炸。全部清晰后，我收到了孩子的短信：“安全。”新闻闪光灯出现在伊朗导弹袭击的其他城市中的建筑物，这些导弹逃避了拦截，并寻找受伤和死亡的人。
I do not sleep again. Until dawn, I ask questions about why this is happening: Are the reasons we have been given for war true; can we possibly trust the people who gave those reasons; how in the world will this end?
我不再睡觉。在黎明之前，我问有关为什么会发生这种情况的问题：我们为战争真实的原因是真实的；我们可以信任给出这些原因的人吗？这个世界将如何结束？
Life is a warped jigsaw puzzle: The pieces of the normal and the abnormal do not fit together. The small grocery on the next street seems fully stocked; the air-conditioning works in my apartment; faucets give water. The streets have not been this quiet since the pandemic lockdowns. I take morning runs through my untouched neighborhood, with my map app set to show public bomb shelters. Sometimes a workout ends with a sprint for cover. A news site shows pictures of an apartment building in another town: The “before” image looks like my building, a 1950s housing project; “after” shows savaged concrete and the gaping squares of what were people’s homes.
生活是一个扭曲的拼图拼图：正常和异常的碎片不适合。下一条街上的小杂货店似乎储备了。空调在我的公寓里起作用；水龙头给水。自从大流行以来，街道并没有那么安静。我在未触及的社区中进行早晨奔跑，并设置了地图应用程序以显示公共炸弹庇护所。有时，锻炼以掩护的冲刺结束。一个新闻网站显示了另一个城镇一栋公寓楼的图片：“前”图像看起来像我的建筑物，1950年代的住房项目；“之后”表明，人们的房屋是人们的房屋。
Everyone I know is sleepless because of the nighttime attacks. People who do not have bomb shelters or the reinforced rooms required by regulation in newer buildings camp out with friends or family members, if they can. Leaving Israel is virtually impossible, because all flights out have been canceled. In WhatsApp groups, friends trade long lists of suggestions for dealing with stress: dance and laugh with your family, breathe slowly, don’t scarf sweets, stop doomscrolling war news an hour before bedtime (who are you kidding?). I receive a text message purporting to be from the Israeli military warning that terrorists will target bomb shelters, so people should stay away from them. A news item cautions citizens to ignore such digital warfare. As a journalist, I get repeated emails from the military censor, reminding me that the location of direct hits cannot be published, lest it help the enemy aim better.
我认识的每个人都因为夜间攻击而失眠。如果可以的话，没有炸弹庇护所或新建筑物营地所需的加固房间（如果可以的话）。离开以色列几乎是不可能的，因为所有飞行都已取消。在WhatsApp团体中，朋友们在应对压力的情况下进行了一长串建议：与家人跳舞和笑，慢慢呼吸，不要围巾甜点，停止在睡前一个小时前一小时（您在开玩笑？）。我收到一条短信，据称是从以色列军事警告中，恐怖分子将针对炸弹庇护所，因此人们应该远离他们。新闻项目警告公民忽略此类数字战。作为一名记者，我收到了军事审查员的重复电子邮件，提醒我，直接命中的位置无法发表，以免它帮助敌人更好地瞄准。
Some people work from home; some are not working. Many are serving in the reserves, as they have, off and mostly on, since the other war started more than 600 days ago. The Israelis killed by missiles get less coverage, my daughter points out, than if they’d been killed in terror bombings during the Second Intifada. The dead in Tehran are only a number. The dead in Gaza—our soldiers, many more Palestinian civilians—have mostly been relegated to back pages. Mass protests demanding that Israel’s government reach a deal with Hamas for the release of our hostages and the end of the war have stopped, because a missile could hit a crowd. Iran is the news.
有些人在家工作；有些不起作用。自从600多天以来，许多战争开始了，许多人都在储备中服役。我的女儿指出，被导弹杀死的以色列人的承保范围要少于第二次起义中在恐怖爆炸中被杀的情况。德黑兰的死者只是一个数字。加沙的死者 - 我们的士兵，更多的巴勒斯坦平民 - 大多被降级为后页。大规模抗议活动要求以色列政府与哈马斯达成协议，以释放我们的人质，而战争的结束已经停止，因为导弹可能袭击了人群。伊朗是新闻。
That the unfinished war in Gaza has now barely become background is, itself, a reason to begin asking questions.
现在，加沙未完成的战争现在几乎没有成为背景，这本身就是开始提出问题的原因。
On June 12, media reports said a nighttime meeting of senior ministers would be held to discuss hostage-deal negotiations. Afterward, it emerged that the announced topic was a ruse, a diversion aimed at Iran. In reality, the ministers moved from the normal meeting room to a bunker, where they approved the attack.
媒体报道称，6月12日，将举行高级部长的夜间会议，讨论人质交易谈判。之后，出现了宣布的话题是一种诡计，这是针对伊朗的转移。实际上，部长们从普通的会议室搬到了一个掩体，他们批准了袭击。
Or, I ask: Is this new conflict itself a diversion from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war in Gaza, where he has promised but cannot deliver “absolute victory”?
或者，我问：这场新的冲突本身是否从总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡在加沙的战争中转移了，他已承诺，但不能带来“绝对的胜利”？
Read: Netanyahu takes desperate measures
阅读：内塔尼亚胡采取绝望的措施
At 3 a.m. on June 13, sirens woke everyone in Israel. The Houthis again, I assumed. Just another single missile from Yemen that would be intercepted within 10 minutes, as has happened often over the past months. My wife and I ran for shelter, where we learned from news bulletins that Israel was bombing Iran. And yet, no missiles had been fired at Israel. The messages on the Home Front Command app, we realized once we had caught our breaths, warned only that we must be ready for Home Front Command instructions in case of an attack.
6月13日，凌晨3点，警报器在以色列醒来。我假设又是胡塞斯。正是也门的另一枚导弹，它将在10分钟内被拦截，就像过去几个月中经常发生的那样。我和我的妻子跑去庇护所，我们从新闻公告中学到了以色列正在轰炸伊朗。然而，以色列没有发射过导弹。Home Front Command应用程序上的消息，我们意识到一旦我们屏住呼吸，只警告说，我们必须准备好在发生攻击时进行主场命令指示。
This was strange, as people around me noticed. Sirens normally sound only when missiles are on their way, when danger is immediate. At a press conference that first day, the army spokesperson explained that the aim was that citizens would “be alert and attentive” to instructions. This may be the full explanation. But trust in this government has been so strained that I consider other possibilities. I find myself wondering whether the oddly timed alert had a political origin, meant to create the sudden solidarity and support for fighting that sweeps a country when war begins.
正如我周围的人们注意到的那样，这很奇怪。警笛通常只有在立即危险时才在途中出现警报声。在第一天的新闻发布会上，陆军发言人解释说，目的是公民对指示“保持警惕和专心”。这可能是完整的解释。但是对这个政府的信任是如此紧张，以至于我考虑了其他可能性。我发现自己想知道，奇怪的时机警报是否具有政治渊源，是为了使战争开始时突然团结和支持席卷这个国家。
At the outset of the Iran campaign, that support appeared to materialize. A survey conducted from the third to the fifth day found that 70 percent of Israelis favored the offensive. Prominent commentators repeated and expanded on Netanyahu’s explanation: that “within a short amount of time” Iran could build nuclear weapons. “The knife is at [our] throat,” one columnist wrote. “Israeli intelligence has uncovered the fact that Iran has begun the process of the ‘breakthrough’” to creating a bomb.
在伊朗竞选活动开始时，支持似乎实现了。从第三天到第五天进行的一项调查发现，70％的以色列人赞成进攻。著名的评论员重复并扩大了内塔尼亚胡的解释：伊朗“在短时间内”可以建造核武器。一位专栏作家写道：“刀在[我们的]喉咙。”“以色列情报局已经揭示了伊朗已经开始'突破性'的过程的事实”。
I cannot dismiss this evaluation. If it’s true, it’s nightmarish. What if one of those warheads that hit Tel Aviv were nuclear?
我不能驳回这项评估。如果是真的，那是噩梦。如果击中特拉维夫的弹头之一是核的，该怎么办？
But, lacking our own sources of data, we journalists cannot verify or challenge this claim. Governments publish or leak intelligence for political purposes, which may not require that what is made public offers a complete or true picture of what secretive agencies have uncovered. And even when an intelligence community is convinced of its conclusions, it can be mistaken. Americans need only recall the lead-up to the Iraq War in 2003. Israeli espionage obviously penetrated Iran to an extraordinary extent, as shown by the ability to locate Iranian generals. But this doesn’t mean its evaluations of Iranian intent are accurate. The U.S. assessment that Iran was not on the verge of building a bomb is at least as questionable.
但是，由于缺乏我们自己的数据来源，我们的记者无法核实或挑战这一主张。政府出于政治目的出版或泄漏情报，这可能不要求公共场所提供完整或真实的秘密机构所发现的东西。即使在情报界确信其结论时，它也可能会误解。美国人只需要回忆2003年伊拉克战争的领导。以色列的间谍活动显然在很大程度上渗透了伊朗，如定位伊朗将军的能力所示。但这并不意味着其对伊朗意图的评估是准确的。美国认为伊朗不在建造炸弹的边缘的评估至少是值得怀疑的。
Regardless, the attack on Iran is under way. How long can Israel, already exhausted by the Gaza war, keep fighting on a new front? Would Netanyahu, who rejected Barack Obama’s diplomatic agreement to stop Iran’s nuclear effort, accept a new one? Without an accord, how long would it take Iran to rebuild, and create a nuclear weapon? Iran’s air defenses have failed. Its stock of ballistic missiles did not deter Israel. For Tehran, a nuclear deterrent may have just grown all the more attractive. This danger did not end with the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, including the deep-underground Fordo facility. Arms-control experts have warned that Iran already had a significant supply of highly enriched uranium, and Tehran has now threatened to withdraw openly from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
无论如何，对伊朗的攻击正在进行中。加沙战争已经筋疲力尽的以色列可以在新的战线上战斗多长时间？拒绝巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）制止伊朗核努力的外交协议的内塔尼亚胡（Netanyahu）接受新的努力？没有协议，伊朗需要多长时间重建并创建核武器？伊朗的防空失败。它的弹道导弹库存并没有阻止以色列。对于德黑兰来说，核威慑力量可能刚刚变得更具吸引力。这种危险并没有随着美国轰炸伊朗核场地的轰炸而结束，其中包括深入的福多设施。武器控制专家警告说，伊朗已经有大量富集的铀供应，而德黑兰现在威胁要公开退出非扩散条约。
Read: Israel plunges into darkness
阅读：以色列陷入黑暗
I am turning over these questions not just because they are the unanswerable anxieties of war but because we Israelis have so many reasons to distrust the man who has led us here. Perhaps no one said it better than Benjamin Netanyahu himself, back in 2008. At that time, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was under police investigation even as he was exploring peace talks with Syria. Netanyahu challenged Olmert’s motives in a television interview: “We’re talking about a prime minister who is up to his neck in investigations, and who doesn’t have a public and moral mandate to decide such fateful matters for the state of Israel. There’s a real concern … that he will make decisions on the basis of his personal interest in political survival and not the national interest.”
我之所以要解决这些问题，不仅是因为它们是无法回答的战争焦虑，而且因为我们以色列人有很多理由不信任带领我们这里的人。也许没有人说的比本杰明·内塔尼亚胡本人更好，早在2008年。当时，总理埃胡德·奥尔默特（Ehud Olmert）正在警方调查，即使他正在与叙利亚进行和平谈判。内塔尼亚胡（Netanyahu）在电视采访中挑战了奥尔默特（Olmert）的动机：“我们谈论的是一名总理，他在调查中掌握了自己的脖子，并且没有公开和道德的任务来决定以色列国的命运事务。有一个真正的担忧……他将基于他对政治生存和国家利益的个人兴趣做出决定。”
The same is now true of Netanyahu, who has refused to leave office despite being indicted in three corruption cases in 2019. His trial has dragged on for five years, and the prosecution finally began cross-examining him early this month. Because of the war with Iran, though, courts are holding only urgent hearings and the trial is on hold. Since the Hamas attack of October 7, Netanyahu has resisted public pressure for a judicial inquiry into the catastrophe. Last week, his government just barely survived a coalition crisis. These conditions hardly inspire confidence in his decision to drag the country into a potentially calamitous war.
内塔尼亚胡（Netanyahu）现在也是如此。内塔尼亚胡（Netanyahu）在2019年因三起腐败案件被起诉，但他拒绝离开职务。他的审判持续了五年，检方终于开始在本月初对他进行盘问。但是，由于与伊朗的战争，法院只举行紧急听证会，审判被搁置。自10月7日的哈马斯袭击以来，内塔尼亚胡（Netanyahu）抵制了公众对灾难进行司法调查的压力。上周，他的政府几乎无法幸免于联盟危机。这些条件几乎不会激发他对他决定将该国拖入一场潜在灾难性战争的信心。
These questions yield few answers so early in this war. But even without sirens wailing in dark hours, they would be enough to keep me awake.
在这场战争的早期，这些问题很少有答案。但是，即使没有警笛在黑暗的时间哭泣，它们也足以让我保持清醒。
