America’s Saturday-night attacks on Iran have amplified an ever more open debate in Tehran over the future of the country and whether Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should remain in power.
美国对伊朗的周六晚上的袭击已经扩大了在德黑兰对该国未来的越来越公开的辩论，以及最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊是否应该继续执政。
In the days leading up to the American intervention, a group of Iranian businessmen, political and military figures, and relatives of high-ranking clerics, two sources involved in the discussions told me, had begun hatching a plan for running Iran without Khamenei—whether in the event of the 86-year-old leader’s death or of his being pushed aside. Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 clerics, would need to vote to dismiss Khamenei from his position, but organizing such a vote under current circumstances is unlikely. The leader could also be more informally sidelined, say, by insiders who pressure or persuade him to pass real power to a temporary replacement. The plotters have agreed that a leadership committee consisting of a few high-ranking officials would take over running the country and negotiate a deal with the United States to stop the Israeli attacks.
在美国干预之前的日子里，一群伊朗商人，政治和军事人物以及高级牧师的亲戚，参与讨论的两个消息来源已经开始制定一项计划，为没有Khamenei而跑步的伊朗计划，无论是86岁的领导人的死亡还是他被推开。从宪法上讲，专家大会是一个由88个牧师组成的机构，需要投票决定将哈梅内伊从他的立场中解雇，但是在当前情况下组织这样的投票是不可能的。例如，领导者也可能会因内部人士而非正式地被置于非正式的局面，这些内部人士向他施加压力或说服他将真正的权力传递给临时替代者。策划者已经同意，由一些高级官员组成的领导委员会将接管该国并与美国达成协议，以制止以色列袭击。
The sources were fearful of being discovered but said that they were telling me of their conversations in the hope that the exposure could help them gauge regional and international response. Among the details they shared with me are that former President Hassan Rouhani, who is not involved in the discussions, is being considered for a key role on the leadership committee, and that some of the military officials involved have been in regular contact with their counterparts from a major Gulf country, seeking buy-in for changing Iran’s trajectory and the composition of its leadership.
消息人士害怕被发现，但说他们告诉我他们的对话，希望这种曝光能够帮助他们衡量区域和国际反应。他们与我分享的细节之一是，未参与讨论的前总统哈桑·鲁哈尼（Hassan Rouhani）被视为领导委员会的关键作用，并且一些参与的军事官员一直在与墨西哥湾地区主要国家的同行进行定期联系，以寻求购买伊朗的轨迹和领导层组成的买入。
Read: The collapse of the Khamenei doctrine
阅读：Khamenei学说的崩溃
“Ours is just one idea,” one person involved in conversations told me. “Tehran is now full of such plots. They are also talking to Europeans about the future of Iran. Everybody knows Khamenei’s days are numbered. Even if he stays in office, he won’t have actual power.”
“我们的只是一个主意，”参与对话的人告诉我。“德黑兰现在充满了这样的情节。他们也在与欧洲人谈论伊朗的未来。每个人都知道哈梅内伊的日子已经被编号了。即使他留在办公室，他也不会拥有实际的权力。”
This was before the U.S. bombardment. I reached out to this person just after the explosions in Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan, and he said, “I think the chances of us succeeding to somehow sideline Khamenei have now increased. But we are all worried and not sure. It could also go exactly the opposite way.”
这是在美国轰炸之前。在纳塔兹（Natanz），福尔多（Fordo）和伊斯法汉（Isfahan）爆炸后，我与这个人接触，他说：“我认为我们成功地以某种方式获得了以某种方式增加了哈梅内伊（Khamenei）的机会。但是我们都担心并且不确定。这也可以完全相同。”
The other person I spoke with who was involved in the conversations told me that he was less optimistic now about the group’s plan securing peace with the U.S. and Israel. “But even if Iran ends up choosing a belligerent position against the United States, Khamenei might have to be pushed aside,” he said.
我与参与对话的另一个人交谈告诉我，他现在对该组织与美国和以色列的和平的计划不太乐观。他说：“但是，即使伊朗最终选择了对美国的好战立场，也可能必须将哈梅内伊推到一边。”
The extent of last night’s damage is currently subject to a war of narratives between Washington and Tehran. The U.S. has averred that its bombing was a spectacular success—President Donald Trump claims to have “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program—while Iran has sought to downplay the destruction, claiming that it had already moved its nuclear materiel and that the strikes had not penetrated fortified sites. Either way, the mood in Iranian circles close to the regime has bifurcated, I’m told. Some insiders, including the plotters I spoke with, want to sue for a deal with Trump, even if that means ditching Khamenei. Others believe that Iran must fight back, because otherwise it will invite further aggression.
目前，昨晚的破坏程度受到华盛顿和德黑兰之间的叙事战争。美国平均认为，炸弹爆炸是一项巨大的成功 - 总统唐纳德·特朗普声称已“毁灭了”伊朗的核计划 - 伊朗试图淡化毁灭性的销售，声称它已经移动了其核物资，并且罢工并未渗透过强化的遗址。我被告知，无论哪种方式，接近该政权的伊朗圈子的心情已经分叉。一些内部人士，包括我与之交谈的策划者，想起诉与特朗普达成协议，即使这意味着抛弃哈梅内伊。其他人则认为伊朗必须反击，因为否则它将引起进一步的侵略。
Read: The only Iran hawk is Trump
阅读：唯一的伊朗鹰是特朗普
“Iran will respond and the war will expand, even if only for the time being,” Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based expert close to the Iranian security establishment, told me shortly after the attacks.
“伊朗将做出回应，即使只是暂时进行的战争也将扩大。”袭击事件发生后不久，基于伊朗安全机构的德黑兰专家莫斯塔法·纳贾菲（Mostafa Najafi）告诉我。
I’d spoken with Najafi a day earlier. At that time, he told me that Iran had already readied itself for American intervention and several months of war. Despite a week of harsh Israeli assaults, Iran’s missile and drone capacities were still considerable, he’d said, adding that Iran’s long experience in asymmetric warfare left it well situated for a prolonged battle with the United States and Israel. Iran had so far sought to avoid dragging America into the war with Israel, Najafi said—Tehran had not unleashed its regional militia allies on American interests in the region—but a U.S. direct hit could change that calculus.
我一天前与Najafi进行了交谈。当时，他告诉我，伊朗已经为美国干预和几个月的战争做好了准备。他说，尽管以色列进行了一周的严厉袭击，但伊朗的导弹和无人机能力仍然相当大，并补充说，伊朗在不对称战争中的长期经验使与美国和以色列的长期战斗保持了良好的态度。纳贾菲说，到目前为止，伊朗一直试图避免将美国拖入与以色列的战争。
Iran’s options would be limited in this regard, however. Lebanon’s Hezbollah is a shadow of its former self and has shown little interest in joining Iran’s fight with Israel and the United States. Iraq is in the midst of a national electoral campaign, making its pro-Tehran militias unlikely to want to be seen as dragging the country into a new conflict.
但是，在这方面，伊朗的选择将受到限制。黎巴嫩的真主党是其以前的自我的阴影，对加入伊朗与以色列和美国的战斗几乎没有兴趣。伊拉克正处于全国选举竞选活动之中，这使得其亲德兰民兵不太可能被视为将该国拖入新的冲突。
Some in the Iranian ruling establishment have suggested that the country will now leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty and openly pursue nuclear weaponization. This fits the belligerent tone emanating even from some centrist elements. For example, before the U.S. attack, Ali Larijani, a former speaker of Parliament, personally threatened Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, saying that Iran would “come after” him after the war.
伊朗裁决机构中的一些人建议该国现在将留下不扩散条约并公开追求核武器。即使是一些中间派元素，这也适合交战的语气。例如，在美国袭击之前，前议会议长阿里·拉里亚尼（Ali Larijani）亲自威胁国际原子能局负责人拉斐尔·格罗西（Rafael Grossi），称伊朗在战后“追随”他。
But events may be moving too fast for Khamenei to carry out long-term plans. In the days ahead, Iran may well respond with a symbolic attack, likely on U.S. bases in Iraq, Mojtaba Dehghani, a Europe-based expert with intimate knowledge of Iran’s leadership, told me. But Dehghani speculated that such a move would probably expand the war and end in Khamenei’s downfall, as a rival faction would then be motivated to seize the reins and seek peace with the United States.
但是，事件可能要迅速，无法执行长期计划。在接下来的日子里，伊朗可能会以象征性的攻击做出回应，这可能是在伊拉克基地的穆里塔巴·德哈尼（Mojtaba Dehghani）的欧洲专家Mojtaba Dehghani告诉我。但是德哈尼（Dehghani）推测，这样的举动可能会扩大战争，并在哈梅内伊（Khamenei）的倒台中结束，因为敌对派系将受到激励抓住re绳并寻求与美国的和平。
For years, Khamenei has led his country in chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” while avoiding fighting either on Iran’s home turf. Now Iranian territory is under fire from both. The country faces a stark choice: Either it expands the war and risks additionally antagonizing the Gulf countries that host American bases, or it seeks a historic compromise with the U.S. that would mean giving up its decades-long hostility. Khamenei’s stance is at once recalcitrant and cautious to the point of cowardice. Elites around him are wondering whether he will have to be tossed aside in pursuit of either course.
多年来，哈梅内伊（Khamenei）一直以“死亡对美国”和“死亡给以色列”的颂歌领导自己的国家，同时避免在伊朗的家园上战斗。现在，伊朗领土都受到了两者的抨击。该国面临着一个鲜明的选择：它要么扩大战争，而且风险又与托管美国基地的海湾国家抗衡，要么寻求与美国的历史妥协，这意味着要放弃其数十年的敌意。Khamenei的立场立刻是顽固的，并且谨慎到怯ward。他周围的精英们想知道是否必须抛弃他，以追求两种课程。
