特朗普的两周外交窗口只是烟幕弹

Trump’s Two-Week Window for Diplomacy Was a Smoke Screen
作者:Michael Scherer, Missy Ryan, Isaac Stanley-Becker, Shane Harris, Jonathan Lemire    发布时间:2025-07-04 15:10:41    浏览次数:0
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注册特朗普的归来,这是一份新闻通讯,其中包括第二任特朗普总统职位的报道。

Well, he did it. He actually did it.
好吧,他做到了。他实际上做到了。

President Donald Trump had insisted for months that he wanted the ultimate deal with Iran, one that would put a definitive end to the country’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon. As late as Thursday, he’d suggested that Iran’s leaders would have up to two more weeks to negotiate. But at that point, he had already made up his mind: The United States was going to bomb Iran.
唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统坚持要几个月,他希望与伊朗达成最终协议,这将使该国生产核武器的能力确定性。直到星期四,他建议伊朗的领导人最多需要两个星期的谈判。但是那时,他已经下定决心:美国将轰炸伊朗。

The president had privately communicated his decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites after a meeting with national security advisers on Wednesday, two people familiar with his decision told us. His statement on Thursday, suggesting a two-week window and “a substantial chance of negotiation” with Iran, was a feint meant to keep the Iranians off guard, four people familiar with the planning told us. (The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Saturday night.)
总统周三与国家安全顾问会面后,私下传达了他轰炸伊朗核场所的决定,两名熟悉他的决定的人告诉我们。他在星期四的声明暗示了为期两周的窗口和“与伊朗进行谈判的很大机会”,这是一种旨在使伊朗人措手不及的伪装,四个熟悉计划的人告诉我们。(白宫没有回应周六晚上的评论请求。)

Trump declared from the White House on Saturday that the strikes hours earlier had left Iran’s nuclear facilities “completely and totally obliterated,” and demanded that Iran abandon any remaining nuclear capability. The assault was the culmination of a nearly two-decade effort to contain or end Iran’s nuclear program. It thrusts the United States more deeply into a high-stakes confrontation with a country where members of Parliament chant, “Death to America,” and quite possibly increases the potential for counterattacks and economic disruption.
特朗普周六从白宫宣布,几个小时前的罢工使伊朗的核设施“完全而完全消失”,并要求伊朗放弃任何剩余的核能。袭击是遏制或结束伊朗核计划的近两个十年的努力的高潮。它更深入地将美国与一个国会议员“对美国的死亡”的国家进行高风险对抗,并很可能增加了反击和经济破坏的潜力。

“There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran,” Trump said, standing with Vice President J. D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
特朗普与国务卿马可·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)和国防部长皮特·黑格斯(Pete Hegseth)站在一起说:“伊朗会有和平,或者将为伊朗发生悲剧。”

The suggestion of a two-week reprieve Trump announced on Thursday came as the U.S. government prepared for a range of scenarios, flying U.S. citizens out of Israel, moving personnel out of American embassies in the Middle East, and dispersing ships and aircraft from bases in the region to prevent damage in any Iranian attack.
特朗普周四宣布的为期两周的缓刑的建议是在美国政府为各种情况准备的,将美国公民赶出以色列,将人员从中东的美国大使馆中移出,并将船只和飞机从该地区的基地驱散以防止任何伊朗袭击中的损害。

The administration must now brace for the possibility of Iranian retaliation, which current and former officials told us would most likely be aimed at U.S. bases, personnel, or facilities in the Gulf, Iraq, or elsewhere in the region. The attacks could also have commercial repercussions if Tehran moves to attack or block shipping in the waterways off Iran.
现在,政府必须为伊朗报复的可能性做好准备,现任和前任官员告诉我们,这很可能是针对海湾,伊拉克或该地区其他地方的美国基地,人员或设施。如果德黑兰移动或阻止伊朗水道上的运输,袭击也可能会产生商业影响。

The operation was closely coordinated with Israel, now a week into its own highly effective bombing campaign on Iranian nuclear and military sites, a person familiar with the planning told us. After the U.S. strikes concluded, Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long pushed the United States to act.
一位熟悉计划的人告诉我们,这项行动与以色列进行了密切协调,现在已经开始了自己在伊朗核和军事遗址上进行高效的轰炸活动一周。在美国罢工结束后,特朗普与以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)进行了交谈,后者长期以来一直在推动美国采取行动。

Trump chose to initiate his air assault after he was impressed by the success of Israel’s offensive, which has further eroded Iran’s air-defense capability, and came to believe that “a little push from us would make it incredibly successful,” an ally of the president who spoke with him about the decision told us.
特朗普在以色列进攻的成功给他留下了深刻的印象之后,选择发起空袭,这进一步侵蚀了伊朗的防空能力,并相信“我们的一点点推动会使我们取得难以置信的成功”,总统与他交谈的总统盟友就这一决定告诉了我们。

U.S. officials told us that Trump had genuinely wanted to strike a nuclear deal with Iran—seven years after he’d ripped up the agreement reached by former President Barack Obama—but had come to an impasse with the Iranians over the issue of the enrichment of uranium. Washington had demanded that Tehran give up enrichment entirely or else submit to strict American and international supervision; Iran had refused those conditions. Some officials held out hope that U.S. bombing will change Iran’s calculus and force its leaders to negotiate on the full dismantlement of the nuclear program. In the short term, however, they predicted that Iran will resort to asymmetric warfare, deploying cyberattacks and other operations that could potentially draw the United States further into the conflict.
美国官员告诉我们,特朗普确实想与伊朗达成核协议 - 在他撕毁了前总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)达成的协议七年后,但他在铀丰富的问题​​上与伊朗人陷入了僵局。华盛顿要求德黑兰完全放弃丰富,或者接受严格的美国和国际监督;伊朗拒绝了这些条件。一些官员认为,美国轰炸将改变伊朗的演算,并迫使其领导人就核计划的全面拆除进行谈判。但是,在短期内,他们预测伊朗将诉诸于非对称战争,部署网络攻击和其他行动,这些行动可能会进一步吸引美国陷入冲突。

Retired General Joseph Votel, who served as the commander of U.S. Central Command during the Obama and first Trump administrations, told us that the United States will now employ aerial surveillance, mapping, and signals intelligence to assess the damage to Iranian nuclear sites.
在奥巴马和第一特朗普政府期间担任美国中央指挥官的指挥官的退休将军约瑟夫·多尔德尔(Joseph Fotel)告诉我们,美国现在将采用空中监视,映射和信号情报来评估对伊朗核场地的损害。

“It’s not as great as putting your own eyeballs on it,” Votel said, “but it’s pretty good.”
菲洛尔说:“这并不像把自己的眼球放在上面那样好。

Trump’s announcement of U.S. strikes on Saturday evening came about 90 minutes after the White House told reporters following the president that there would be no more news for the night and that they could go home. European leaders were meeting with an Iranian delegation as recently as Friday, in an effort to further negotiations. It was not clear whether the United States had told even its closest allies that, all the while, Trump had already made up his mind to strike.
特朗普在周六晚上宣布美国罢工的消息是在白宫告诉记者之后大约90分钟,总统说,当晚将不再有新闻,他们可以回家。欧洲领导人最近在星期五与伊朗代表团会面,以进一步谈判。目前尚不清楚美国是否已经告诉其最接近的盟友,特朗普一直都下定决心要罢工。

Precisely what convinced Trump that Iran was close to making a weapon remains mysterious. For years, including when Trump was last in office, the U.S. intelligence community has publicly stated that Iran is not trying to build a nuclear weapon. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard reiterated that bottom-line conclusion during congressional testimony in March.
确切地说,特朗普认为伊朗几乎要制造武器仍然是神秘的。多年来,包括特朗普最后任职的时候,美国情报界公开表示伊朗并没有试图建立核武器。国家情报局局长塔尔西·加巴德(Tulsi Gabbard)重申了三月份国会证词期间的底线结论。

But Trump dismissed her statement and the information behind it. “She’s wrong,” Trump told reporters on Friday, days after he had already made the decision to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran had gathered “a tremendous amount of material,” he continued, apparently referring to the enriched uranium necessary to create a bomb. Earlier in the week, Trump had said that he thought Iran was “very close to having” weapons.
但是特朗普驳回了她的陈述及其背后的信息。“她错了,”特朗普在决定轰炸伊朗核设施的几天后对记者说。他继续说,伊朗收集了“大量材料”,显然是指制造炸弹所需的浓缩铀。特朗普在本周早些时候说,他认为伊朗“非常接近”武器。

The U.S. intelligence community had also said that Iran was enriching uranium that could potentially be used in a weapon, and was stockpiling highly enriched uranium far in excess of what would be needed for a civilian energy program.
美国情报界还说,伊朗正在丰富可能用于武器中的铀,并储存高度富集的铀远远超出了平民能源计划所需的东西。

But crucially, U.S. intelligence agencies had long ago determined that Iran’s supreme leader had suspended the weapons program in 2003. Enriching nuclear material is just one component of a weapon. A nuclear warhead has to be fitted onto a ballistic missile capable of surviving reentry into Earth’s atmosphere and landing on its target—not a trivial feat of engineering.
但至关重要的是,美国情报机构很久以前就确定伊朗最高领导人于2003年暂停了武器计划。丰富核材料只是武器的一部分。必须将核弹头安装在能够在地球大气中幸存下来并降落在其目标上的弹道导弹上,而不是工程的琐碎壮举。

In an apparent attempt to make U.S. intelligence analysis adhere more closely to Trump’s own judgments, Gabbard said on Friday that her comments before Congress that Iran was not trying to build a weapon had been deliberately misinterpreted by “dishonest media.”
加巴德(Gabbard)周五表示,为了使美国情报分析显然与特朗普自己的判断更加紧密地遵守,她在国会面前的评论说,伊朗没有试图建造武器,这被“不诚实的媒体”故意误解了。

“America has intelligence that Iran is at the point that it can produce a nuclear weapon within weeks to months, if they decide to finalize the assembly,” she said in a post on X. She offered no additional information to explain that conclusion.
她在X上的一篇文章中说:“美国的情报是,如果伊朗决定在几周到几个月内生产核武器,”她在X上的一篇文章中说。

In a statement after the U.S. strikes, Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, argued that Trump had made his decision “without regard to the consistent conclusions of the intelligence community.”
参议院情报委员会最高民主党人弗吉尼亚州参议员马克·华纳(Mark Warner)在美国罢工后的一份声明中辩称,特朗普“不考虑情报界的一致结论”做出了决定。

Trump had fervently hoped for a negotiated deal but had also been convinced that Iran had never been weaker and would not be able to retaliate in a meaningful way, two people familiar with the matter told us.
特朗普热切希望达成协议,但也确信伊朗从来没有弱,也无法以有意义的方式进行报复,两个熟悉此事的人告诉我们。

“Iran was in trouble,” one said, “and now was the moment to pounce.”
一个人说:“伊朗陷入困境,现在是打击的时刻。”

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