President Donald Trump has done what he swore he would not do: involve the United States in a war in the Middle East. His supporters will tie themselves in knots (as Vice President J. D. Vance did last week) trying to jam the square peg of Trump’s promises into the round hole of his actions. And many of them may avoid calling this “war” at all, even though that’s what Trump himself called it tonight. They will want to see it as a quick win against an obstinate regime that will eventually declare bygones and come to the table. But whether bombing Iran was a good idea or a bad idea—and it could turn out to be either, or both—it is war by any definition of the term, and something Trump had vowed he would avoid.
唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统做了他发誓自己不会做的事情：让美国参加中东的一场战争。他的支持者将陷入困境（正如副总统J. D. Vance上周所做的那样）试图将特朗普的承诺的方形钉在他的行动的圆孔中。他们中的许多人可能根本避免将这场“战争”称为“战争”，尽管那是特朗普本人今晚所说的。他们将希望将其视为对顽固政权的快速胜利，该政权最终将宣布过去并来到餐桌上。但是，无论爆炸伊朗是一个好主意还是一个坏主意，而这可能是或两者兼而有之 - 从任何定义上来说，这都是战争，而特朗普发誓他会避免的事情。
So what’s next? Before considering the range of possibilities, it’s important to recognize how much we cannot know at this moment. The president’s statement tonight was a farrago of contradictions: He said, for example, that the main Iranian nuclear sites were “completely and totally obliterated”—but it will take time to assess the damage, and he has no way of knowing this. He claimed that the Iranian program has been destroyed—but added that there are still “many targets” left. He said that Iran could suffer even more in the coming days—but the White House has reportedly assured Iran through back channels that these strikes were, basically, a one-and-done, and that no further U.S. action is forthcoming.
那接下来是什么？在考虑可能性范围之前，重要的是要认识到我们目前无法知道多少。总统今晚的声明是矛盾的一项法拉哥：例如，他说，伊朗主要的核场所“完全而完全消除”，但要评估损害的时间需要花费一些时间，而且他没有办法知道这一点。他声称伊朗计划已被摧毁，但补充说仍然剩下“许多目标”。他说，伊朗在未来几天可能会遭受更大的痛苦 - 但据报道，白宫通过后频道向伊朗保证，这些罢工基本上是一又一击，而且没有进一步的美国行动即将发生。
(In a strange moment, Trump added: “I want to just say, we love you, God, and we love our great military.” Presidents regularly ask God to bless the American nation and its military forces—as Trump did in his next utterance—but it was a bit unnerving to see a commander in chief order a major military action and then declare how much “we” love the Creator.)
（在一个奇怪的时刻，特朗普补充说：“我只想说，我们爱你，上帝，我们爱我们的伟大军事。”总统经常要求上帝祝福美国国家及其军事力量 - 特朗普在他的下一句话中所做的那样，但要在主要的军事行动中看到一名大型军事行动，然后宣布有多大的“我们”爱创造者，这是有些令人不安的。
Only one outcome is certain: Hypocrisy in the region and around the world will reach galactic levels as nations wring their hands and silently pray that the B-2s carrying the bunker-buster bombs did their job.
只有一个结果是可以肯定的：该地区和世界各地的虚伪将达到银河水平，因为各国worning绕着他们的手并默默地祈祷，携带Bunker-Buster Bombs的B-2s携带了他们的工作。
Beyond that, the most optimistic view is that the introduction of American muscle into this war will produce a humiliating end to Iran’s long-standing nuclear ambitions, enable more political disorder in Iran, and finally create the conditions for the fall of the mullahs. This may have been the Israeli plan from the start: Despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s warnings about the imminence of an Iranian nuclear-weapons capability and the need to engage in preemption, this was a preventive war. The Israelis could not destroy sites such as Fordow without the Americans. Israeli military actions suggest that Netanyahu was trying to increase the chances of regime change in Tehran while making a side bet on dragging Trump into the fray and outsourcing the tougher nuclear targets to the United States.
除此之外，最乐观的观点是，将美国的肌肉引入这场战争将对伊朗长期存在的核野心产生羞辱的结局，使伊朗更多的政治疾病，最后为毛拉人的堕落带来了条件。从一开始，这可能就是以色列的计划：尽管以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡关于迫在眉睫的伊朗核武器能力的警告以及有必要进行先发制人的需要，但这是一场预防性战争。没有美国人，以色列人将无法摧毁诸如福多之类的遗址。以色列的军事行动表明，内塔尼亚胡（Netanyahu）试图增加德黑兰政权变化的机会，同时押注将特朗普拖入战斗中，并将更艰难的核目标外包给美国。
The very worst outcome is the polar opposite of the optimistic case. In this bleak alternative, the Air Force either didn’t find, or couldn’t destroy, all of the key parts of the Iranian program; the Iranians then try to sprint across the finish line to a bomb. In the meantime, Tehran lashes out against U.S. targets in the region and closes the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian opposition fades in importance as angry Iranian citizens take their government’s part.
最糟糕的结果是与乐观情况相反。在这种荒凉的替代方案中，空军要么找不到或无法摧毁伊朗计划的所有关键部分。然后，伊朗人试图在终点线上冲刺到炸弹。同时，德黑兰猛烈抨击该地区的美国目标，并关闭了Hormuz海峡。随着愤怒的伊朗公民扮演政府的角色，伊朗反对派的重要性消失了。
One dangerous possibility in this pessimistic scenario is that the Iranians do real damage to American assets or kill a number of U.S. servicepeople, and Trump, confused and enraged, tries to widen his war against a country more than twice the size of Iraq.
在这种悲观的情况下，一种危险的可能性是，伊朗人对美国资产造成了真正的损害或杀死许多美国服务人员，而特朗普（Trump）感到困惑和激怒，试图扩大他与伊拉克规模的两倍以上的战争。
Perhaps the most likely outcome, however, is more mixed. The Iranian program may not be completely destroyed, but if the intelligence was accurate and the bombers hit their targets, Tehran’s nuclear clock has likely been set back years. (This in itself is a good thing; whether it is worth the risks Trump has taken is another question.) The Iranian people will likely rally around the flag and the regime, but the real question is whether that effect will last.
但是，最可能的结果可能更混杂。伊朗计划可能不会被彻底摧毁，但是如果情报是准确的，轰炸机达到了目标，那么德黑兰的核时钟很可能已经被恢复了多年。（这本身就是一件好事；特朗普承担的风险是否值得。
The Iranian regime will be wounded but will likely survive; the nuclear program will be delayed but will likely continue; the region will become more unstable but is unlikely to erupt into a full-blown war involving the United States.
伊朗政权将受伤，但可能会生存；核计划将被推迟，但可能会继续下去；该地区将变得更加不稳定，但不太可能爆发涉及美国的全面战争。
But plenty of wild cards are in the deck.
但是大量的通配符在甲板上。
First, as strategists and military planners always warn, the “enemy gets a vote.” The Iranians may respond in ways the U.S. does not expect. The classic war-gaming mistake is to assume that your opponent will respond in ways that fit nicely with your own plans and capabilities. But the Iranians have had a long time to think about this eventuality; they may have schemes ready that the U.S. has not foreseen. (Why not spread around radiological debris, for example, and then blame the Americans for a near-disaster?) Trump has issued a warning to Iran not to react, but what might count as “reacting”?
首先，正如战略家和军事规划人员总是警告时，“敌人得到了投票”。伊朗人可能会以美国没有预期的方式做出回应。经典的战争错误是假设您的对手会以适合您自己的计划和能力的方式做出反应。但是伊朗人有很长的时间思考这种情况。他们可能已经准备好了美国尚未预料的计划。（例如，为什么不围绕放射学碎片散布，然后责怪美国人的近乎污水师呢？）特朗普向伊朗发出了警告，不要做出反应，但是什么可能算是“反应”呢？
Second, we cannot know the subsequent effects of an American attack. For now, other Middle Eastern regimes may be relieved to see Iran’s nuclear clock turned back. But if the Iranian regime survives and continues even a limited nuclear program, those same nations may sour on what they will see as an unsuccessful plan hatched in Jerusalem and carried out by Washington.
其次，我们不知道随后的美国袭击的影响。目前，其他中东政权看到伊朗的核时钟可能会放心。但是，如果伊朗政权得以生存并继续进行有限的核计划，那些相同的国家可能会使他们认为这是在耶路撒冷孵化并由华盛顿执行的一个不成功的计划。
Diplomacy elsewhere will likely suffer. The Russians have been pounding Ukraine with even greater viciousness than usual all week and now may wave away the last of Trump’s feckless attempts to end the war. Other nations might see American planes flying over Iran and think that the North Koreans had the right idea all along: assemble a few crude nuclear weapons as fast as you can to deter further attempts to end your regime.
其他地方的外交可能会受到影响。俄罗斯人在整周都比平时更大的恶性袭击乌克兰，现在可能会挥舞着特朗普的最后一场无力结束战争的尝试。其他国家可能会看到美国飞机飞越伊朗，并认为朝鲜人一直都有正确的想法：尽可能快地组装一些原油核武器，以阻止进一步的尝试以结束您的政权。
Finally, the chances for misperception and accidents are now higher than they were yesterday. In 1965, the United States widened the war in Southeast Asia after two purported attacks from North Vietnam; the Americans were not sure at the time whether both of these attacks had actually happened, and as it turns out, one of them probably had not. The Middle East, moreover, is full of opportunities for screwups and mistakes: If Trump continues action against Iran, he will need excellent intelligence and tight organization at the Pentagon.
最后，误解和事故的机会现在比昨天更高。1965年，在两次声称北越的袭击事件之后，美国扩大了东南亚的战争。当时，美国人不确定这两次攻击是否确实发生了，事实证明，其中一个可能没有。此外，中东充满了搞砸和错误的机会：如果特朗普继续对伊朗采取行动，他将需要五角大楼出色的情报和紧张的组织。
And this is where the American strikes were really a gamble: They were undertaken by a White House national-security team staffed by unqualified appointees, some of whom—including the director of national intelligence and the secretary of defense himself—Trump has reportedly frozen out of his inner circle. (Given that those positions are held by Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth, respectively, it is both terrifying and a relief to know that they may have little real influence.) The American defense and intelligence communities are excellent, but they can function for only so long without competent leadership.
这就是美国罢工真正是一场赌博的地方：他们是由白宫国家安全团队由不合格的任命人员组成的，其中一些人 - 包括国家情报部长和国防部长本人 - 据报道，特朗普已经冻结了他的内心圈子。（鉴于这些职位分别由塔尔西·加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard）和皮特·赫格斯（Pete Hegseth）担任，因此知道它们可能没有真正的影响力，这既令人恐惧又令人欣慰。）美国国防和情报社区的出色表现非常出色，但是他们只能在没有能力的领导的情况下才能运作这么长时间。
Trump has had preternatural luck as president: He has survived scandals, major policy failures, and even impeachment, events that would have ended other administrations.The American planes dropped their payloads and returned home safely. So he might skate past this war, even if it will be hard to explain to the MAGA faithful who believed him, as they always do, when he told them that he was the peace candidate. But perhaps the biggest and most unpredictable gamble Trump took in bombing Iran was sending American forces into harm’s way in the Middle East with a team that was never supposed to be in charge of an actual war.
特朗普作为总统的运气是超自然的运气：他在丑闻，重大的政策失败甚至弹each中幸存下来，这些事件将结束其他政府。因此，他可能会滑过这场战争，即使很难向玛格（Maga）忠实解释，他像往常一样相信他，当他告诉他们他是和平候选人时。但是，特朗普在轰炸伊朗轰炸的最大，最不可预测的赌博也许是将美军在中东造成伤害，而一支从来没有负责实际战争的球队。
