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The latest round of the Israel-Iran war is over, and the immediate outcome appears decisive. In just 12 days, Israel eliminated the leadership of Iran’s military, air force, and intelligence agency; bombed the country’s nuclear sites; and took out dozens of missiles and launchers on the ground before they could be used. Iran, by contrast, was unable to take down a single Israeli jet, and was reduced to firing decreasing volleys of ballistic missiles at Israel’s population centers, killing 27 civilians and one 18-year-old soldier at home with his family. All active-duty military deaths were on the Iranian side.
以色列 - 伊朗战争的最新一轮已经结束,直接的结果似乎是果断的。在短短的12天内,以色列消除了伊朗军事,空军和情报机构的领导。轰炸了该国的核遗址;并在使用它们之前,在地面上拿出了数十枚导弹和发射器。相比之下,伊朗无法拆除一架以色列喷气式飞机,并在以色列的人口中心射击了减少弹道导弹的炮弹,杀死了27名平民,一名与家人一起在家里的18岁士兵。所有现役的军事死亡都在伊朗方面。
Israel’s achievements were made possible by their stunning intelligence penetration of the Iranian regime’s highest ranks. In the first hours of the conflict, Mossad agents reportedly launched drones from inside Iranian territory to neutralize air defenses, and lured much of Iran’s top brass to a supposedly secret bunker that was then pummeled by Israeli forces. These early coups enabled Israel to achieve air dominance over Iran, a country some 1,500 miles away. To understand how the regime’s leaders could have failed so utterly to suss out Israeli spooks, one needs to understand another time when Israel was alleged to have taken control of Tehran’s skies.
以色列的成就是通过对伊朗政权最高排名的惊人情报渗透而实现的。据报道,在冲突的最初几个小时里,莫萨德特工从伊朗领土内部发射了无人机,以中和防空,并吸引了伊朗的大部分顶级黄铜,据说是一个被据称的秘密掩体,然后被以色列部队殴打。这些早期的政变使以色列能够对伊朗的空中统治地位,伊朗大约1,500英里。要了解该政权的领导人如何完全失败以使以色列怪异的战绩,人们需要了解另一个时间,据称以色列控制了德黑兰的天空。
In the summer of 2018, Iran was experiencing a drought. This is not an uncommon occurrence in the Middle East and would not have made international news if not for the response of a regime functionary, who blamed the weather on Israel. “The changing climate in Iran is suspect,” Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali said at a press conference. “Israel and another country in the region have joint teams which work to ensure clouds entering Iranian skies are unable to release rain.” He went on to accuse the Jewish state of “cloud and snow theft.”
2018年夏天,伊朗正在经历干旱。这在中东并不罕见,如果不是因为政权工作人员的回应,他将不会成为国际新闻,后者将天气归咎于以色列。格拉姆·雷扎·贾拉利(Gholam Reza Jalali)准将在新闻发布会上说:“伊朗的气候变化令人怀疑。”“以色列和该地区的另一个国家拥有联合团队,以确保进入伊朗天空的云无法释放降雨。”他继续指责犹太国家“云和雪盗”。
This story seems like a silly bit of trivia until one realizes that Jalali was also the head of Iran’s Civil Defense Organization, tasked with combating sabotage. In other words, a key person in charge of thwarting Israeli spies in Iran was an incompetent conspiracy theorist obsessed with Jewish climate control. About a week after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Jalali celebrated the massacre and boasted in state-run media that Israel’s “military and intelligence dominance has collapsed and will not be repaired anymore.” Unsurprisingly, it was on his watch that Israel executed an escalating campaign of physical and cybersabotage against Iran’s nuclear program, culminating in the war this month.
这个故事似乎是一个愚蠢的琐事,直到人们意识到贾拉利(Jalali)也是伊朗民防组织的负责人,他的任务是打击破坏者。换句话说,负责在伊朗挫败以色列间谍的关键人物是痴迷于犹太气候控制的无能的阴谋理论家。哈马斯袭击于2023年10月7日袭击大约一周后,贾拉利庆祝了大屠杀,并在国营的媒体中吹嘘以色列的“军事和情报上的优势已经崩溃,不会再维修”。毫不奇怪,以色列在他的手表上进行了一场不断升级的对伊朗核计划的运动和网络代表的运动,最终在本月的战争中达到了最终。
Jalali is but one of many high-level Iranian functionaries who seemingly believe their own propaganda about their enemies. Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani once told Fox News that Israel supported the Islamic State, despite ISIS executing attacks against Israelis. His predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, suggested at the United Nations that 9/11 was an inside job perpetrated by the U.S. government.
贾拉利(Jalali)只是众多高级伊朗工作人员之一,他们似乎相信自己对敌人的宣传。伊朗前总统哈桑·鲁哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)曾对福克斯新闻(Fox News)表示,尽管ISIS执行对以色列人的袭击,但以色列支持伊斯兰国。他的前任艾哈迈迪尼贾德(Mahmoud Ahmadinejad)在联合国建议9/11是美国政府实施的内部工作。
It would be easy to dismiss Iran’s wartime failures as unique to the country’s dysfunctional authoritarian system. But that would be a mistake. Jalali and other top Iranian officials were unable to defeat Israel not just because their own intelligence capabilities didn’t match up, but because their adherence to regime-sanctioned fantasies made grasping Israel’s actual abilities impossible for them. As a result, once Israel decided, after October 7, that it could no longer tolerate the risks of constant aggression from Iran and its proxies, the regime’s defenses quickly folded. In this way, Iran’s predicament is a cautionary tale about what happens when loyalty to a ruling ideology—rather than capability—determines who runs a society, and when conspiracies, rather than reality, shape decision making.
很容易将伊朗的战时失败视为该国功能失调的专制制度所独有的。但这将是一个错误。贾拉利(Jalali)和其他伊朗顶级官员无法击败以色列,这不仅是因为他们自己的情报能力与政权批准的幻想的遵守使以色列的实际能力对他们来说是不可能的。结果,一旦以色列在10月7日之后就决定不再容忍伊朗及其代理人不断侵略的风险,该政权的防御迅速就折叠了。这样,伊朗的困境就是一个警告性的故事,讲述了忠于统治意识形态的忠诚(而不是能力),那些经营社会,阴谋而不是现实时,会发生什么。
Although the Iranian theocracy presents an acute case of this phenomenon, the early symptoms are beginning to manifest in democratic societies, including our own. Consider: Today, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is run by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a man who has cast doubt on decades of scientific research on the effectiveness of vaccines. He recently fired the entire membership of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and appointed several vaccine skeptics to the panel, which is now planning to review childhood vaccination standards. Kennedy attained his position as a reward for endorsing Donald Trump during the 2024 campaign.
尽管伊朗神权政治呈现出这种现象的急剧案例,但早期症状开始在包括我们自己的民主社会中体现出来。考虑:今天,美国卫生和公共服务部由小罗伯特·肯尼迪(Robert F. Kennedy Jr.他最近解雇了疾病预防控制中心免疫实践咨询委员会的全部成员,并将几种疫苗怀疑论者任命为小组,该疫苗现在正计划审查儿童疫苗接种标准。肯尼迪(Kennedy)在2024年的竞选期间获得了认可唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的奖励。
Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, has suggested that the former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad did not use chemical weapons against his own people in 2017 and 2018, despite extensive documentation of the attacks, including by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the previous Trump administration. A former Democrat, she also attained her position after endorsing Trump. Thomas Fugate, a 22-year-old recent college graduate who worked on Trump’s 2024 campaign, is now the interim director of the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships at the Department of Homeland Security, despite having no apparent experience in counterterrorism. And that’s to say nothing of Congress, where people such as Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a conspiracy theorist who once speculated that the Rothschild banking dynasty was setting wildfires with a space laser, now sit on the powerful House Oversight Committee.
国家情报部主任塔尔西·加巴德(Tulsi Gabbard)建议,尽管大量证明了袭击事件,包括袭击,包括禁止化学武器的禁令和前任特朗普政府,但前叙利亚独裁者巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)在2017年和2018年没有对自己的人民使用化学武器。她是前民主党人,在认可特朗普后也达到了自己的立场。托马斯·富格(Thomas Fugate)是一名22岁的大学毕业生,从事特朗普(Trump)2024年的竞选活动,现在是国土安全部预防计划和伙伴关系中心的临时主任,尽管在反恐方面没有明显的经验。这就是国会的说法,佐治亚州的代表玛乔丽·泰勒·格林(Marjorie Taylor Greene)等人是阴谋理论家,他曾经猜测罗斯柴尔德银行王朝正在用太空激光设置野火,现在坐在强大的房屋监督委员会上。
Politicians have long rewarded their allies with plum positions. But when allegiance replaces proficiency as the primary qualification for advancement, and conspiracism replaces competency, disaster looms. Flunkies guided by regime ideology lack the capacity to understand and solve national crises. Just look at Iran.
长期以来,政客们以李子姿势奖励了盟友。但是,当效忠取代熟练程度作为促进的主要资格,而阴谋替代了能力,灾难迫在眉睫。由政权意识形态引导的垃圾缺乏理解和解决国家危机的能力。只是看伊朗。
When Jalali blamed his country’s drought on Israel, Iran’s chief forecaster pushed back, but tentatively, seemingly afraid to upset those in charge. The general “probably has documents of which I am not aware,” Ahad Vazifeh, the director of forecasting at Iran’s Meteorological Organization, said. “But on the basis of meteorological knowledge, it is not possible for a country to steal snow or clouds.” He then offered a warning that is as applicable to America today as it was then to Iran: “Raising such questions not only does not solve any of our problems, but will deter us from finding the right solutions.”
当贾拉利(Jalali)将自己的国家的干旱归咎于以色列时,伊朗的首席预报员被推迟了,但暂时,似乎害怕不高兴那些负责人。伊朗气象组织预测主任阿哈德·瓦齐夫(Ahad Vazifeh)说,将军“可能有我不知道的文件”。“但是根据气象知识,一个国家不可能偷雪或云。”然后,他提出了一个警告,该警告今天适用于当时的美国:“提出此类问题不仅不能解决我们的任何问题,而且会阻止我们找到正确的解决方案。”
Related:
有关的:
Here are three new stories from The Atlantic:
这是来自大西洋的三个新故事:
Today’s News
今天的新闻
President Donald Trump said that U.S. and Iranian officials will speak next week, but Iran has not confirmed whether such talks are scheduled. Zohran Mamdani is the presumptive Democratic candidate for the New York City mayoral race; Andrew Cuomo conceded last night. Members of the CDC’s vaccine-advisory panel, who were recently appointed by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., appeared inclined to overhaul longstanding vaccine recommendations during a meeting today.
唐纳德·特朗普总统说,美国和伊朗官员下周将发表讲话,但伊朗尚未确认是否计划进行此类谈判。Zohran Mamdani是纽约市市长竞选的推定民主党候选人。安德鲁·库莫(Andrew Cuomo)昨晚承认。CDC的疫苗顾问小组成员最近由卫生部长罗伯特·肯尼迪(Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)任命,他们在今天的一次会议上似乎倾向于对长期疫苗的建议进行大修。
More From The Atlantic
来自大西洋的更多
Evening Read
晚上阅读
Illustration by The Atlantic. Sources: Paul Morigi / Getty; Floortje / Getty.
大西洋的插图。资料来源:Paul Morigi / Getty;floortje / getty。
Brace Yourself for Watery Mayo and Spiky Ice Cream
为水蛋黄酱和尖刺的冰淇淋做好准备
By Yasmin Tayag
拜敏
In the kitchen, an ingredient’s taste is sometimes less important than its function. Cornstarch has rescued many a watery gravy; gelatin turns juice to Jell-O. Yet the substances that make bread fluffy, hold mayonnaise together, and keep the cream in ice cream have, according to the new stance of the United States government, “no culinary use.” These natural and synthetic substances, called emulsifiers, are added to processed foods to give them the textures that Americans have come to love. They’ve also become targets in Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s push to remove many food additives from the American diet.
在厨房里,成分的味道有时不如其功能重要。玉米淀粉已营救了许多水肉汁。明胶将果汁变成果冻。然而,根据美国政府的新态度,使面包蓬松,将蛋黄酱放在冰淇淋中并保存冰淇淋的物质“不用烹饪”。这些天然和合成的物质(称为乳化剂)被添加到加工食品中,以使它们赋予美国人所爱的质地。他们还成为卫生部长罗伯特·肯尼迪(Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Read the full article.
阅读全文。
Culture Break
文化中断
Illustration by Ben Kothe / The Atlantic
本·科特(Ben Kothe) /大西洋的插图
Watch. Our film critic David Sims has a summertime assignment for you: watching these movies.
手表。我们的电影评论家大卫·西姆斯(David Sims)为您提供了夏季作业:看这些电影。
Read. At night, Toni Morrison worked on her novels. By day, as an editor at Random House, she championed a new generation of writers, Clint Smith writes.
读。到了晚上,托尼·莫里森(Toni Morrison)拍摄了她的小说。克林特·史密斯(Clint Smith)写道,白天,她作为兰登书屋(Random House)的编辑,倡导了新一代作家。
Play our daily crossword.
播放我们的每日填字游戏。
Stephanie Bai contributed to this newsletter.
斯蒂芬妮·拜(Stephanie Bai)为该新闻通讯做出了贡献。
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当您使用此新闻通讯中的链接购买书籍时,我们会收到佣金。感谢您支持大西洋。