After its demoralizing defeat in November, the Democratic Party has undertaken an agonizing, months-long self-autopsy to determine how it lost some of its core voters and how to move past an entrenched, older generation of leaders. Zohran Mamdani, the presumptive winner of yesterday’s New York City mayoral primary, might provide some of the answers—to a point.
在11月沮丧的失败之后，民主党进行了痛苦的，长达数月的自我自助术，以确定其如何失去其一些核心选民，以及如何超越根深蒂固的老一辈领导人。Zohran Mamdani是昨天纽约市长初选的推定获胜者，可能会提供一些答案。
Mamdani, a 33-year-old, relatively unknown state assemblyman, ran an invigorated, modern campaign while embracing progressive—and in some cases, socialist—ideas to upset former Governor Andrew Cuomo. He is now on the precipice of leading the nation’s largest city. According to some Democrats, Mamdani—charismatic, tireless, optimistic, a master of social media—could be a new leader in a party that is desperate to move on from overly familiar faces.
曼达尼（Mamdani）是一位33岁的，相对未知的州议员，在拥抱进步的人（在某些情况下是社会主义者）的同时，进行了一场激动人心的现代运动，以使前州长安德鲁·库莫（Andrew Cuomo）感到不安。他现在正处于领导美国最大城市的悬崖上。根据一些民主党人的说法，曼达尼（特征性，孜孜不倦，乐观，社交媒体的大师）可能会成为一个渴望从过于熟悉的面孔继续前进的政党的新领导者。
Republicans hope they’re right. The GOP is eager to make Mamdani a national figure and hold up some of his ideas (city-run grocery stores! free buses!) as evidence that the Democrats are far to the left of the average voter.
共和党人希望他们是对的。共和党渴望使Mamdani成为民族人物，并提出他的一些想法（城市经营的杂货店！免费公共汽车！），证明民主党人在普通选民的左边很远。
Michael Powell: The magical realism of Zohran Mamdani
迈克尔·鲍威尔（Michael Powell）：佐兰·曼达尼（Zohran Mamdani）的魔术现实主义
There are, of course, risks to drawing national lessons from a local primary election, particularly one in a city where Democrats make up almost two-thirds of the electorate. Moreover, Cuomo had singular, deep flaws and ran a listless campaign. The incumbent mayor, Eric Adams, wasn’t on the ballot, relegated to an independent run after facing allegations of corruption and allying himself with President Donald Trump. But for Democrats desperate to make sense of why their party is so unpopular, Mamdani’s win could at least provide a burst of energy, and a few ideas about how to move forward.
当然，从当地的初选中汲取全国教训的风险，尤其是在民主党人构成选民近三分之二的城市中。此外，库莫（Cuomo）有一个奇异的深处缺陷，并进行了无列的运动。现任市长埃里克·亚当斯（Eric Adams）不在投票中，在面对腐败指控并与唐纳德·特朗普总统（Donald Trump）盟军之后，降级为独立奔跑。但是，对于迫切理解为什么他们的政党如此不受欢迎的民主党人来说，曼达尼的胜利至少可以提供一大堆能量，以及关于如何前进的一些想法。
Democrats have been consumed with questions about what went wrong a year ago. Why didn’t more in the party realize that President Joe Biden was too old to win again? How did Trump make inroads with young voters and with the Black and brown voters who have been Democrats’ bedrock for generations? How did Trump make gains in some of the nation’s biggest and traditionally bluest cities? Did the party move too far to the left, or not far enough? And why was a billionaire ex-president promising tax cuts for the rich seen as the better bet than his opponent to lower prices for working- and middle-class Americans? Since Trump’s return to Washington, Democrats have managed to rally around their opposition to Trump’s tariffs, DOGE cuts, and hard-line immigration policies. But they have struggled to put forth a coherent positive vision, and to find the right messenger.
民主党人对一年前出了什么问题的疑问。党内为什么没有更多地意识到总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）太老了，无法再次获胜？特朗普如何与年轻的选民以及世代相传的民主党基石的黑人和棕色选民陷入侵害？特朗普如何在美国一些最大，传统上最蓝的城市中取得收益？聚会向左移动太远还是不够远？为什么亿万富翁前总统有望减税，因为这是比对手更好的赌注，因为他的工人和中产阶级美国人的价格降低了价格？自从特朗普返回华盛顿以来，民主党人设法反对他们对特朗普的关税，削减马头和艰苦的移民政策的反对。但是他们一直在努力提出一个连贯的积极视野，并找到合适的使者。
Few looked to New York City for hope. The mayor’s race at first seemed destined to be defined by Adams’s scandals. When Cuomo made his entry into the race, many expected that his name recognition and his support from wealthy backers would give him an easy win over a series of well-meaning but uninspiring challengers. Cuomo positioned himself as someone who would stand up to Trump and urged voters to look past his own scandals—he resigned in 2021 after a series of sexual-harassment allegations, which he denied—and to recall instead his level-headed COVID briefings. Of all the candidates, he argued, only he had the management skills to revive a city that has just seemed off since the pandemic.
很少有人向纽约市寻求希望。首先，市长的比赛看来注定要由亚当斯的丑闻定义。当库莫（Cuomo）参加比赛时，许多人期望他的名字认可和富有的支持者的支持将使他轻松地赢得一系列善良但令人振奋的挑战者。库莫（Cuomo）将自己定位为一个会站起来的人，并敦促选民远离自己的丑闻 - 他在一系列的性骚扰指控之后于2021年辞职，他否认了这一指控，而是回想起他头脑上的共同简介。他认为，在所有候选人中，只有他拥有管理技能来恢复自大流行以来刚刚离开的城市。
But Cuomo ran a desultory campaign, limiting his exposure to reporters and, more important, to voters. His long-held ambivalence toward the city was evident, as were the rumors that he viewed Gracie Mansion merely as a stepping stone to higher office. He couldn’t shake his humiliating exit as governor. A late endorsement from former President Bill Clinton only reinforced the notion that Cuomo represented an aging, tarnished generation of Democrats. “Cuomo relied on older establishment endorsements that no longer hold weight in the city,” Christina Greer, an associate political-science professor at Fordham University, told me. “Cuomo also underestimated the extent to which New York voters are tired of disgraced politicians using public office as their contingency plan for life.” (Bill de Blasio, the former New York City mayor who has feuded with Cuomo for years, told me that he ran a “grim, fear-based campaign with no authentic big ideas.”)
但是，库莫（Cuomo）进行了一场胜任运动，限制了他对记者的接触，更重要的是对选民。他对这座城市的长期矛盾情绪很明显，而且谣言也将格雷西（Gracie Mansion）视为高级办公室的垫脚石。他无法摇晃羞辱的出口作为州长。前总统比尔·克林顿（Bill Clinton）的后期认可只加强了库莫代表衰老，失去光泽的民主党人的观念。福特汉姆大学的副政治科学教授克里斯蒂娜·格里尔（Christina Greer）告诉我：“库莫依靠不再承担重量的老年机构认可。”“库莫还低估了纽约选民厌倦了以公职作为其生活的偶然性计划而厌倦政治家的厌恶政治家。”（比尔·德·布拉西奥（Bill de Blasio）是纽约市的前市长，多年来一直与库莫（Cuomo）争执多年，他告诉我，他进行了一次“严峻的，基于恐惧的竞选活动，没有真正的大想法。”）
David A. Graham: How voters lost their aversion to scandal
大卫·格雷厄姆（David A. Graham）：选民如何失去对丑闻的厌恶
To categorize Mamdani at the beginning of the race as an afterthought would have been an insult to afterthoughts. He has served not even five years in the state assembly, and has little of the experience generally thought needed to manage a civic workforce of more than 280,000 people and a budget of $115 billion. (The New York Times’ editorial board deemed him unqualified for the job.) But Mamdani did have energy and charm, and no shortage of ideas that were quickly turned into easy-to-digest slogans such as “Free buses” and “Freeze the rent.” He relentlessly focused on affordability and economic issues, a welcome message in a city with an extraordinarily high cost of living and stark income stratification.
在比赛开始时将Mamdani归类为事后想法，这将是对事后想法的侮辱。他在州议会中任职甚至五年，几乎没有经验来管理拥有28万多人的公民劳动力，预算为1,150亿美元。（《纽约时报》的社论委员会认为他没有资格从事这份工作。）但是，曼达尼确实有精力和魅力，而且不乏很快变成易于消化的口号，例如“免费公共汽车”和“冻结租金”。他不懈地关注负担能力和经济问题，这是一个非常高的生活成本和鲜明收入分层的城市中的欢迎信息。
Mamdani revealed himself to be remarkably adept at communicating his message, mastering social-media memes and delivering powerful speeches that evoked far more of Barack Obama’s loft than Biden’s whisper. He said yes to seemingly every interview and every podcast, tossing aside the caution traditionally preached by the focus-group-wielding political-consultant class. He tapped into liberal New Yorkers’ anger over Gaza. He resonated with young people, including young men, who not only turned out for him but also volunteered for his campaign, creating an enthusiastic army of believers that created a noticeable contrast with Cuomo’s support from donors, unions, and establishment figures. In the race’s final days, a cheerful Mamdani walked the length of Manhattan, a metaphor for the tirelessness he brought to the race.
曼达尼（Mamdani）表明自己非常擅长传达自己的信息，掌握社交媒体模因并发表强有力的演讲，这比拜登的耳语更吸引了巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）的阁楼。他对每次采访和每次播客都说是的，抛弃了持续宗教团体的政治班级阶级传统上讲道的谨慎。他利用了自由派纽约人对加沙的愤怒。他引起了年轻人的共鸣，其中包括年轻人，他们不仅为他赢得了他的竞选活动，还为他的竞选活动而自愿，创造了一群热情的信徒军队，这与库莫（Cuomo）的捐助者，工会和建立人物的支持形成了鲜明的对比。在比赛的最后日子里，一个开朗的曼达尼（Mamdani）走了曼哈顿（Manhattan）的长度，曼哈顿（Manhattan）对他带来的不懈努力的隐喻。
“The Democrats nationally need to start doing what Zohran just did. When we metaphorically sit at the kitchen table and empathize and offer passionate solutions, we win,” de Blasio told me. “We didn’t do that in 2024, and that was a big reason we lost.”
“民主党人在全国范围内需要开始做佐兰刚刚做的事情。当我们隐喻地坐在厨房餐桌旁，同情并提供热情的解决方案时，我们赢了，”德布拉西奥告诉我。“我们在2024年没有这样做，这是我们迷路的重要原因。”
Mamdani did what so many Democrats failed to do last fall: He excited new voters, focused on economic issues, and communicated his story well. And most of all, he won, including in racially and economically diverse neighborhoods. As of this writing, it appears that there will be no need to rely on multiple rounds in New York City’s new ranked-choice voting system; although Mamdani did not crack the 50 percent threshold last night to win the nomination outright, he surpassed Cuomo by about eight points, and the former governor conceded.
曼达尼（Mamdani）去年秋天做了许多民主党人未能做的事情：他激动了新选民，专注于经济问题，并很好地传达了他的故事。最重要的是，他赢得了胜利，包括在种族和经济上多样化的社区中。截至撰写本文时，似乎在纽约市新排名选择的投票系统中无需依靠多个回合。尽管Mamdani昨晚没有破解50％的门槛以赢得提名，但他以库莫的比分超过了约8分，而前州长承认。
“Mamdani created a movement around his candidacy, and the big lesson for Democrats is that young voters are looking for a larger social-political movement and not just an anti-Trump party,” Basil Smikle, a New York–based political strategist who has worked for Cuomo and Hillary Clinton, told me. “His victory suggests there’s a needed reformation of the Democratic coalition, and repudiation of incrementalism but also a more wholesale shift from establishment politics.”
“曼达尼（Mamdani）在他的候选人资格中创造了一场运动，民主党人的最大教训是，年轻的选民正在寻找更大的社会政治运动，而不仅仅是一个反特朗普政党，”纽约政治战略家巴西勒·斯米克尔（Basil Smikle）曾在纽约和希拉里·克林顿（Cuomo）和希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）工作。“他的胜利表明，民主联盟需要改革，拒绝渐进主义，但也从建立政治中进行了更大的转变。”
But the reverberations from Mamdani’s candidacy aren’t all reassuring ones for Democrats. Republicans have mocked his socialist ideas by evoking the barren supermarkets of the Soviet Union. They’ve seized on his previous calls to “Defund the police” (Mamdani called for reducing the NYPD budget in 2020; he was the only candidate in the Democratic field this year to not pledge to hire more cops). A few Republicans have trotted out racist and Islamophobic stereotypes (Mamdani is of Ugandan Indian descent and is Muslim). Some Democrats, too, are leery of Mamdani’s call for new taxes on businesses and the rich, warning that such policies could lead to a wealth exodus from New York. Republicans have pointed to the sinking poll numbers of Chicago’s progressive mayor, Brandon Johnson, as evidence that liberals can’t govern. Last night, Vice President J. D. Vance posted on social media, “Congratulations to the new leader of the Democratic Party,” tagging Mamdani. Trump today went one step further, posting that Mamdani was a “100% Communist Lunatic.”
但是，曼达尼（Mamdani）候选人资格的回响并不是民主党人的放心。共和党人通过唤起苏联贫瘠的超市嘲笑他的社会主义思想。他们抓住了他以前的“退还警察”的呼吁（Mamdani呼吁在2020年降低NYPD预算；他是今年民主党领域唯一不承诺雇用更多警察的候选人）。一些共和党人已经摆脱了种族主义和伊斯兰恐惧症的刻板印象（Mamdani是乌干达印度的后裔，是穆斯林）。一些民主党人也是曼达尼（Mamdani）呼吁对企业征收新税的责任，并警告说，这种政策可能会导致纽约的财富外流。共和党人指出，芝加哥进步的市长布兰登·约翰逊（Brandon Johnson）的民意调查数量是自由主义者无法统治的证据。昨晚，副总统J. D. Vance在社交媒体上发布了“恭喜民主党的新领导人”，标记了Mamdani。特朗普今天又迈出了一步，他发布了曼达尼是“ 100％共产党的疯子”。
Mamdani’s depiction of Israel’s actions in Gaza as a genocide threatens to unnerve some members of the city’s large and politically active Jewish population. Within hours of Mamdani’s acceptance speech, Republican Representative Elise Stefanik of New York sent a fundraising appeal calling him a “Hamas Terrorist sympathizer.” Mamdani has defended the pro-Palestinian slogan “Globalize the intifada” but has denied accusations that he is anti-Semitic. He has said that he supports an Israel that provides equal rights to all of its citizens, but he has repeatedly dodged questions about whether Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state.
曼达尼（Mamdani）描述以色列在加沙的行动，因为种族灭绝是一种使该市大型且政治上活跃的犹太人人口的一些成员感到困扰。在曼达尼（Mamdani）接受演讲的几个小时内，纽约的共和党代表埃利斯·斯特凡尼克（Elise Stefanik）发出了筹款上诉，称他为“哈马斯恐怖分子同情者”。曼达尼（Mamdani）捍卫了亲巴勒斯坦的口号“全球化起义”，但否认指控他是反犹太的。他说，他支持以色列为所有公民提供平等权利的以色列，但他反复避开有关以色列是否有权作为犹太国家生存的问题。
Jonathan Chait: Why won’t Zohran Mamdani denounce a dangerous slogan?
乔纳森·查特（Jonathan Chait）：佐兰·曼达尼（Zohran Mamdani）为什么不谴责危险的口号？
“Mamdani is a gift to Republicans. They will link every Democrat to his far-left policy proposals,” Susan Del Percio, a Republican strategist who worked in Rudy Giuliani’s mayoral administration, told me. “As mayor of New York City, every single thing he does will be held under a microscope by Democrats and Republicans alike. And some of these things are really out there.”
在鲁迪·朱利安尼（Rudy Giuliani）的市长政府工作的共和党策略师苏珊·德尔·珀西奥（Susan Del Percio）告诉我：“曼达尼（Mamdani）是给共和党人的礼物。“作为纽约市市长，他所做的每一件事都将由民主党人和共和党人都在显微镜下举行。其中一些事情确实存在。”
When the mayoral race began, the conventional wisdom was that the Democratic primary would be the de facto general election. That is no longer quite the case. Before last night, Cuomo had previously signaled that if he lost the primary, he might run in November on another ballot line, believing that the glow around Mamdani might wear off with more time and scrutiny. (Those close to Cuomo think that an independent run, though possible, might now be less likely given the margin of his defeat this week.) And while the Republican nominee, the anti-crime activist and radio-show host Curtis Sliwa, seems to have little chance, Mamdani’s win might open the door again for Adams; in a remarkable plot twist, the mayor has told associates that he can now position himself as the steadier choice to keep the job. A person close to Trump told me that the president might enjoy wading into the race in his former hometown and would consider endorsing Adams, though he might opt against it out of concern that it would hurt Adams more than help him.
当市长竞选开始时，传统的观点是民主党初选将是事实上的大选。事实并非如此。昨晚之前，库莫（Cuomo）此前曾表示，如果他失去了初选，他可能会在11月在另一个投票线上跑步，他认为Mamdani周围的光芒可能会随着更多的时间和审查而磨损。（那些接近库莫的人认为，虽然可能有可能的独立奔跑，但由于他本周失败的余地，现在可能不太可能。）虽然共和党的提名人，反犯罪活动家和广播节目主持人柯蒂斯·斯利瓦（Curtis Sliwa）似乎几乎没有机会，但玛姆达尼（Mamdani）的胜利可能会再次为亚当斯（Adams）打开大门；市长在一个显着的情节转折中告诉同伙，他现在可以将自己定位为保持工作的稳定选择。一个接近特朗普的人告诉我，总统可能喜欢在他以前的家乡参加比赛，并考虑认可亚当斯（Adams），尽管他可能会因为担心这会伤害亚当斯（Adams）而不是帮助他而选择反对。
Still, the Democratic nominee will be considered the favorite. If Mamdani wins, there will be only so much that his fellow Democrats can learn from the specifics of the race, given New York’s liberal tilt. But maybe there will be some lessons that are less about ideology and more about tactics—having energy, communicating clearly and frequently, and focusing on personal economic issues. “I’ve already heard from some Democrats who worry that this guy is going to get us all labeled as socialists,” the Reverend Al Sharpton, the civil-rights leader and Democratic stalwart, told me. “But he hit on something; he connected with something. Mamdani kept showing up. Democrats need to keep showing up.”
尽管如此，民主党提名人仍将被视为最爱。如果Mamdani获胜，鉴于纽约的自由主义者倾向，他的民主党人只能从比赛的细节中学到很多东西。但是，也许会有一些关于意识形态的经验教训，而更多地涉及战术 - 拥有能量，清晰，频繁地进行交流，并专注于个人经济问题。“我已经听到了一些民主党人的消息，他们担心这个人会把所有人都标记为社会主义者，”民事权利领袖兼民主党坚强的阿尔·夏普顿牧师告诉我。“但是他打了一些东西；他与某事联系在一起。玛姆达尼不断出现。民主党人需要继续露面。”
