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The rulers of Iran bet their regime on the “Trump always chickens out” trade. They refused diplomacy. They got war. They chose their fate. They deserve everything that has happened to them. Only the world’s most committed America-haters will muster sympathy for the self-destructive decision making of a brutal regime.
伊朗的统治者将自己的政权押在“特朗普总是鸡”贸易上。他们拒绝外交。他们有战争。他们选择了命运。他们应该得到发生在他们身上的一切。只有世界上最敬业的美国狂欢者才能同情残酷政权的自我毁灭性决策。
Striking Iran at this time and under these circumstances was the right decision by an administration and president that usually make the wrong one. An American president who does not believe in democracy at home has delivered an overwhelming blow in defense of a threatened democracy overseas. If a single night’s action successfully terminates Donald Trump’s Iran war, and permanently ends the Iran nuclear-bomb program, then Trump will have retroactively earned the birthday parade he gave himself on June 14. If not, this unilateral war under a president with dictatorial ambitions may lead the United States to some dark and repressive places.
目前和在这种情况下,罢工伊朗是政府和总统通常会犯错误的正确决定。一位不相信国内民主的美国总统为捍卫威胁到海外的民主国家带来了压倒性的打击。如果一个晚上的行动成功终止了唐纳德·特朗普的伊朗战争,并永久终止了伊朗核炸弹计划,那么特朗普将追溯地赢得了他在6月14日举行的生日游行。
Trump did the right thing, but he did that right thing in the wrongest possible way: without Congress, without competent leadership in place to defend the United States against terrorism, and while waging a culture war at home against half the nation. Trump has not put U.S. boots on the ground to fight Iran, but he has put U.S. troops on the ground for an uninvited military occupation of California.
特朗普做了正确的事情,但他以最优于的方式做了正确的事情:没有国会,没有能力的领导才能捍卫美国免受恐怖主义的侵害,而在国内对一半国家进行文化战争时。特朗普没有将美国靴子放在地面上与伊朗作斗争,但他已经将美军置于非自来的军事占领的地面上。
Iran started this war. In August 2002, courageous Iranian dissidents revealed to the world an Iranian nuclear enrichment plant in Natanz. Suddenly, all those chanted slogans about destroying Israel moved from the realm of noise and slogans to the realm of intent and plan. Over the next 23 years, Iran invested an enormous amount of wealth and know-how in advancing its project to annihilate the state of Israel. Iran deterred Israel from attacking the nuclear project by deploying missiles and supporting terror groups.
伊朗开始了这场战争。2002年8月,勇敢的伊朗持不同政见者向纳坦兹的伊朗核富集厂揭示了世界。突然,所有这些关于摧毁以色列从噪音和口号转移到意图和计划领域的诵经的口号。在接下来的23年中,伊朗投入了大量的财富和专业知识,以推进其歼灭以色列国的项目。伊朗通过部署导弹和支持恐怖组织来阻止以色列攻击核项目。
After the October 7 terror attacks on Israel, Iran gradually lost its deterrence. Israel defeated Hamas and Hezbollah militarily, and the Iranian-allied regime in Syria collapsed. But Iran did not change its strategy. It was Iran that initiated the direct nation-to-nation air war with Israel. After Israel struck an Iranian compound in Syria in April 2024, Iran fired 300 ballistic missiles into Israel, a warning of what to expect once Iran completed its nuclear program. If the war launched by the rulers of Iran has brought only defeat and humiliation to their country, that does not make those rulers victims of anybody else’s aggression. A failed aggressor is still the aggressor.
10月7日恐怖袭击以色列后,伊朗逐渐失去了威慑。以色列在军事上击败了哈马斯和真主党,叙利亚的伊朗与伊朗的政权崩溃了。但是伊朗没有改变其战略。正是伊朗与以色列进行了直接的国家空战。在2024年4月,以色列在叙利亚袭击了伊朗大院后,伊朗向以色列发射了300枚弹道导弹,这是一旦伊朗完成其核计划的预期。如果伊朗统治者发动的战争只会给国家带来失败和屈辱,那并不会使那些统治者受害者的受害者的受害者的受害者。失败的侵略者仍然是侵略者。
Now Americans face the consequences of Trump’s intervention to thwart Iran’s aggression.
现在,美国人面临特朗普干预阻碍伊朗侵略的后果。
Some of those consequences may be welcome.
可能欢迎其中一些后果。
The attack on Iran is perhaps the first time that President Trump has ever done anything Vladimir Putin did not want him to do. That’s one of the reasons I personally doubted he would act strongly against Iran. Maybe Trump can now make a habit of defying Putin—and at last provide the help and support that Ukraine’s embattled democracy needs to win its war of self-defense against Russian aggression.
对伊朗的袭击也许是特朗普总统第一次做任何弗拉基米尔·普京不希望他做的事情。这就是我个人怀疑他会对伊朗采取强烈行动的原因之一。也许特朗普现在可以养成反抗普京的习惯,最后提供了乌克兰四面楚歌的民主需要的帮助和支持,以赢得对俄罗斯侵略的自卫战争。
The strike on Iran was opposed by the reactionary faction within the Trump administration—and in MAGA media—that backs America’s enemies against America’s allies. It’s very wrong to call this faction “anti-war.” They want a war against Mexico. They have pushed the United States on the first steps to that war by flying drones over Mexican territory without Mexican permission. This faction is defined not by what it rejects, but by what it admires (Putin’s Russia above all) and by whom it blames for America’s troubles (those it euphemistically condemns as “globalists”). That reactionary faction lost this round of decision making. Perhaps now it will lose more rounds.
伊朗对伊朗的罢工反对特朗普政府内部的反动派别,以及在玛格玛媒体中,支持美国反对美国盟国的敌人。称这个派系为“反战”是非常错误的。他们想要与墨西哥进行战争。他们通过未经墨西哥许可将无人驾驶飞机飞越墨西哥领土,将美国推向了战争的第一步。这个派系不是由它拒绝的东西来定义的,而是由它钦佩的(普京的俄罗斯最重要的)和它归咎于美国的麻烦(那些委婉地谴责为“全球主义者”)的定义。那个反动派别失去了这一一轮决策。也许现在它将失去更多的回合。
But if some of the domestic consequences of this strike are welcome, others are very dangerous.
但是,如果欢迎这次罢工的某些国内后果,其他人则非常危险。
Presidents have some unilateral war-making power. Barack Obama did not ask Congress to authorize his air campaign in Libya in 2011. The exact limits of that power are blurry, defined by politics, not law. But Trump’s strike on Iran has pushed that line further than it has been pushed since the end of the Vietnam War—and the pushing will become even more radical if Iranian retaliation provokes more U.S. strikes after the first wave.
总统具有一些单方面的战争力量。巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)没有要求国会于2011年在利比亚授权他的空中运动。这种权力的确切限制是模糊的,是由政治而不是法律定义的。但是,特朗普对伊朗的罢工比自越南战争结束以来所推动的命中率更大,如果伊朗报复在第一波浪潮之后引起更多的美国罢工,推动将变得更加激进。
Trump has abused the president’s power to impose emergency tariffs, and created a permanent system of revenue-collection without Congress. He asserts that he can ignore rights of due process in immigration cases. He has defied judicial orders to repatriate persons wrongfully sent to a foreign prison paid for by U.S. taxpayer funds. He is ignoring ethics and conflict-of-interest laws to enrich himself and his family on a post-Soviet scale—much of that money flowing from undisclosed foreign sources. He has intimidated and punished news organizations for coverage he did not like by abusing regulatory powers over their corporate parents. He has deployed military units to police California over the objections of the elected authorities in that state.
特朗普滥用了总统征收紧急关税的权力,并在没有国会的情况下建立了永久性的税收收集体系。他断言,他可以忽略移民案件中正当程序的权利。他违反了司法命令,以遣返美国纳税人资金支付的外国监狱。他无视道德和利益冲突法来以后苏联的规模丰富自己和家人,这是从未公开的外国资源中流出的那笔钱。他吓倒并惩罚了新闻机构的报道,因为他不喜欢滥用公司父母的监管权。他已经对该州当选当局的异议部署了军事部门向加利福尼亚州警察。
This is a president who wants and wields arbitrary power the way no U.S. president has ever done in peacetime. And now it’s wartime.
这是一位总统,他想要并挥舞着任意权力,就像美国总统从未在和平时期所做的那样。现在是战时。
Americans have a right and proper instinct to rally around their presidents in time of war. But in the past, that rallying has been met by the equal instincts of presidents to rise above party and faction when the whole nation must be defended. Trump’s decision to brief Republican leaders of Congress before the Iran strike, but not their Democratic counterparts, was not merely a petty discourtesy—it confirmed his divisive and authoritarian methods of leadership and warned of worse to come.
在战争时期,美国人有一个正确和适当的本能在其总统周围集会。但是过去,当必须捍卫整个国家时,总统的平等本能越过政党和派系,就已经达到了集会。特朗普决定在伊朗罢工之前向共和党领导人简要介绍国会,而不是民主党同行,这不仅是一个小小的欺骗,而且还证实了他的分裂和专制的领导方式,并警告了以后的情况。
It is not confidence-inspiring that Pete Hegseth leads the Pentagon. Or that Kash Patel, Dan Bongino, and Kristi Noem are in charge of protecting Americans from Iranian retaliatory terrorism. Or that Tulsi Gabbard is coordinating national intelligence. Or that enemy-of-Ukraine J. D. Vance is poised to inherit all.
皮特·赫格斯(Pete Hegseth)领导五角大楼并不具有信心。或者那是Kash Patel,Dan Bongino和Kristi Noem负责保护美国人免受伊朗报复恐怖主义的侵害。或者塔尔西·加巴德(Tulsi Gabbard)正在协调国家情报。或乌克兰的敌人J. D. Vance有望继承一切。
Trump exercises national power, but he cannot and will not act as a national leader. He sees himself—and has always acted as—the leader of one part of a nation against the rest: the wartime leader of red America in its culture war against blue America, as my former Atlantic colleague Ron Brownstein has written. Now this president of half of America has commanded all of America into a global military conflict. With luck, that conflict will be decisive and brief. Let’s hope so.
特朗普行使了民族权力,但他不能也不会担任国家领导人。他认为自己 - 并一直担任国家的领导人,是一个国家的一部分反对其他国家的领导者:像我的前大西洋同事罗恩·布朗斯坦(Ron Brownstein)所写的那样,红色美国战时领导人在其对蓝色美国的文化战争中。现在,这位美国一半的总统已命令整个美国陷入全球军事冲突。幸运的是,这场冲突将是决定性和简短的。希望如此。