Recently, in Los Angeles, protesters waving Mexican flags amid burning vehicles and law enforcement in riot gear have resurrected memories of 1994, when similar scenes defined Latino political identity for a generation. During that year’s movement against California Proposition 187, which sought to bar undocumented immigrants from accessing education, health care, and social services, Latino citizens banded together with recent arrivals of varying legal status in solidarity. This was a catalyzing moment that spurred many Latinos not only in California, but across the country, to understand themselves as an aggrieved ethnic minority, and to vote as a bloc. Now, three decades later, something similar might be taking place.
最近，在洛杉矶，抗议者挥舞着墨西哥旗帜，在燃烧的车辆和防暴装备中的执法方面，已经复活了1994年的回忆，当时类似的场景为一代人定义了拉丁裔政治身份。在那一年对加利福尼亚州提议的运动187期间，该提议试图禁止无证移民获得教育，卫生保健和社会服务，拉丁裔公民与最近的团结法律地位不同。这是一个催化的时刻，不仅在加利福尼亚州，而且在全国各地都刺激了许多拉丁美洲人，将自己理解为受屈的少数族裔，并作为集团投票。现在，三十年后，可能会发生类似的事情。
The escalation of immigration raids around Los Angeles and Donald Trump’s deployment of military forces—over Governor Gavin Newsom’s objection—to quell anti-ICE protests have heightened fears among many Latinos that they are under systemic attack. The forcible removal of Senator Alex Padilla from Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s press conference after he tried to ask her about ICE raids has only added to the unease. Even though many social metrics suggest that Latinos are assimilating into the U.S. mainstream, the MAGA movement keeps reminding them that it does not consider them fully American. On Friday, Vice President J. D. Vance, who served in the Senate with Padilla, mocked him and called him “José Padilla.”
洛杉矶周围的移民突袭和唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的部署（在州长加文·纽瑟姆（Gavin Newsom）的反对意见）中升级了反对反对抗议的反对，这激起了许多拉丁美洲人受到系统性攻击的恐惧。在试图向她询问冰袭击的情况下，他从国土安全部长克里斯蒂·诺姆（Kristi Noem）的新闻发布会上被强行从国土安全部长克里斯蒂·诺姆（Kristi Noem）的新闻发布会上撤职，这只会增加了不安。尽管许多社会指标表明拉丁美洲人正在吸收美国主流，但Maga运动仍在提醒他们，它并不认为它们是完全美国的。周五，与帕迪拉（Padilla）在参议院任职的副总统J. D. Vance嘲笑他，并称他为“JoséPadilla”。
Out of dissatisfaction with the economy under Joe Biden, more Latinos voted for Trump in November than in his two previous bids. That historic showing was widely viewed as a turn away from ethnic politics. The reality is more nuanced: Latinos have always been primarily focused on economic issues, but they will coalesce as an ethnic voting bloc when they sense a serious threat to their community.
出于对乔·拜登（Joe Biden）领导下的经济不满的不满，拉丁美洲人在11月投票赞成特朗普，而不是他之前的两次出价。这种历史性的表演被广泛认为是远离种族政治的转变。现实更为细微：拉丁美洲人一直主要集中在经济问题上，但是当他们对社区构成严重威胁时，他们将成为一个族裔投票集团。
Mike Madrid: What Democrats don’t understand about Latino voters
迈克·马德里（Mike Madrid）：民主党人对拉丁裔选民不了解
American Latinos are a diverse group. Many see themselves as a mainstay of the country’s working class and as strivers eager to build a better life for their family. Latinos responded strongly to the Trumpist GOP’s economic populism. Last year, Latino voters told pollsters that issues such as inflation, jobs, and housing costs were their highest priorities; immigration was farther down the list. The overwhelming majority of Latino voters today were born in the United States; from 2002 to 2022, the proportion of newly registered Latino voters in Los Angeles County who were foreign-born dropped from 54 percent to less than 9 percent.
美国拉丁美洲人是一个多元化的群体。许多人将自己视为该国工人阶级的支柱，并渴望为家人建立更好的生活。拉丁美洲人对特朗普主义者共和党的经济民粹主义做出了强烈回应。去年，拉丁裔选民告诉民意测验者，通货膨胀，工作和住房成本等问题是其优先事项。移民距离榜单更远。今天的绝大多数拉丁裔选民出生在美国。从2002年到2022年，洛杉矶县新注册的拉丁裔选民比例从外国出生的人降至54％降至不到9％。
This helps explain why immigration issues resonated less among Latinos in November than at any other point in the past three decades. NBC News exit polls estimated that 46 percent of Latinos voted for Trump last year, up from 32 percent in 2020. Other researchers estimated that Trump improved his standing among Latino men by 35 points, narrowly winning the demographic.
这有助于解释为什么在11月，拉丁美洲人之间的移民问题比过去三十年的其他任何时候引起的共鸣。NBC新闻退出民意调查估计，去年有46％的拉丁美洲人投票支持特朗普，从2020年的32％投票给特朗普。其他研究人员估计，特朗普在拉丁裔男子中的地位提高了35分，赢得了人群的差异。
The rightward shift wasn’t an abandonment of Latino identity; it was an expression of these voters’ sense of what they, and people like them, want from their government. Aspiring Latino families, hit hard by inflation and housing costs, responded to promises of economic relief.
向右转移并不是拉丁裔身份的放弃。这是这些选民对他们和人们喜欢政府想要的东西的意识。有抱负的拉丁美洲家庭受到通货膨胀和住房成本的努力，对经济救济的承诺做出了回应。
Since Trump’s inauguration, his support among Latinos has dropped—a trend that was first detectable after the president’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements sapped consumer confidence and cast global financial markets into chaos. In a mid-April poll of Latino voters, 60 percent said that Trump and congressional Republicans were not focusing on bringing down the cost of everyday goods, and 66 percent thought that tariffs would raise prices and hurt their economic security.
自从特朗普就职典礼以来，他在拉丁美洲人的支持下降了，这一趋势在总统的“解放日”关税公告后首先可检测到，消费者的信心削弱了消费者的信心，并将全球金融市场置于混乱中。在4月中旬对拉丁裔选民的民意调查中，有60％的人表示，特朗普和国会共和党人并不专注于降低日常商品的成本，而66％的人认为关税会提高价格并损害其经济安全。
Read: Why did Latinos vote for Trump?
阅读：拉丁美洲人为什么投票给特朗普？
Now Trump’s immigration crackdown in California and elsewhere is undoubtedly adding to his declining position among Latinos. According to a poll last month, Latino respondents agreed by a 66–29 margin that Trump’s “actions are going too far and targeting the types of immigrants who strengthen our nation.” When immigration enforcement is perceived as targeting entire communities rather than focusing narrowly on dangerous criminals, it activates deeper questions about belonging and acceptance in American society.
现在，特朗普在加利福尼亚和其他地方的移民镇压无疑增加了他在拉丁美洲人的地位下降。根据上个月的一项民意调查，拉丁裔受访者达成了66-29的优势，特朗普的行动“行动太远，目标是针对加强我们国家的移民的类型”。当将移民执法视为针对整个社区而不是专注于危险罪犯时，它会激活有关美国社会归属和接受的更深入的问题。
When that happens, the effects can be long-lasting. In 1994, Proposition 187’s anti-immigrant provisions generated massive Latino turnout against Republicans, fundamentally reshaping the state’s political landscape to Democrats’ advantage. In the midterms of 2018, Trump’s immigration rhetoric and family-separation policies drove another wave of Latino political mobilization, contributing to Democratic gains across the country. That year, in the midst of ICE raids in communities, Latino voters increased voter turnout to its highest level in midterm history; they cast ballots against Republicans by an equally historic margin.
发生这种情况时，效果可能是持久的。1994年，提案187的反移民条款对共和党人产生了大规模的拉丁裔投票，从根本上讲，该州的政治格局对民主党的优势重塑了。在2018年中期，特朗普的移民言论和家庭分离政策驱动了另一波拉丁裔政治动员，促成了全国民主的成就。那一年，在社区中的冰上突袭中，拉丁裔选民将选民投票率提高到了中期历史上的最高水平。他们以同样具有历史意义的利润对共和党人投票。
The recent L.A. protests represent a potential third such moment. The rough treatment of Padilla, a California native of Mexican ancestry, at Noem’s press conference exemplified how Trump’s moves against immigrants could bring harm to U.S.-born Latinos as well. In a fiery Senate speech days after Homeland Security agents pushed him to the floor and handcuffed him, Padilla focused mostly on the Trump administration’s extreme and un-American use of executive power. Yet he was implicitly making another point: Not even an MIT graduate who is a U.S. senator for his home state has a secure seat at the American table. Padilla is separated by a generation from the immigrant experience, but he was still forced out of an event in a government building.
最近的洛杉矶抗议活动代表了这一潜在的第三阶段。诺伊姆（Noem）的新闻发布会上，对加利福尼亚州人帕迪拉（Padilla）的粗略待遇说明了特朗普对移民的行动如何也会对美国出生的拉丁裔造成伤害。在国土安全人员将他推到地板上并戴上手铐的几天之后，参议院的演讲中，帕迪拉主要专注于特朗普政府对行政权力的极端和非美国人使用。然而，他暗中提出了另一个观点：即使是美国本州参议员的麻省理工学院毕业生，他在美国餐桌上都有安全的席位。帕迪拉（Padilla）与移民经历相距一代，但他仍然被迫退出政府大楼的活动。
Read: There’s no playbook for what Alex Padilla is trying to do
阅读：没有亚历克斯·帕迪拉（Alex Padilla）试图做的事情的剧本
Recent events are resonating with Latinos outside California—even in South Florida, where Cuban Americans are a core Republican constituency. In October, Florida International University’s poll of likely Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County reported that 68 percent intended to vote for Trump, by far the largest level of support for him on record. Yet Trump’s recent immigration actions—including his decision to end the humanitarian parole program for Cubans, revoking temporary legal status for thousands of immigrants—are testing these loyalties. “This is not what we voted for,” State Senator Ileana Garcia, a co-founder of Latinas for Trump, declared on X earlier this month.
最近的事件引起了加利福尼亚以外的拉丁美洲人的共鸣，即使在南佛罗里达州，古巴美国人是共和党的核心选区。10月，佛罗里达国际大学对迈阿密戴德县可能古巴美国选民的民意调查报告说，有68％的人打算投票支持特朗普，这是迄今为止对他的最大支持。然而，特朗普最近采取的移民行动（包括结束对古巴人的人道主义假释计划的决定，撤销成千上万移民的临时法律地位）正在测试这些忠诚。“这不是我们投票的，”拉丁裔特朗普的联合创始人Ileana Garcia本月初宣布。
Across the country, Latino votes are very much in play. Fully one-third of all Latino voters today were not even alive when Proposition 187 was on the ballot. As images of federal agents confronting Latino protesters spread across social media and prompt kitchen-table conversations, the question isn’t whether Latinos will remain politically engaged; it’s which party will better understand the full dimensions of Latino political identity. Democrats cannot assume Latino support based solely on opposition to harsh immigration policies, and Republicans cannot maintain Latino voters through economic appeals alone if those same voters feel that their communities are under siege.
在全国范围内，拉丁裔投票在起作用。当第187号提案参加选票时，今天所有拉丁裔选民中有三分之一还没有活着。当联邦特工面对拉丁裔抗议者的图像散布在社交媒体上，并迅速进行厨房表对话，问题不是拉丁美洲人是否会在政治上参与。这是哪个政党更好地了解拉丁裔政治身份的整个方面。民主党人不能仅仅基于反对严厉的移民政策的支持，而共和党人不能仅仅通过经济上诉来维持拉丁裔选民，如果这些选民认为自己的社区受到围困。
