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The current debate over bombing Iran is surreal. To begin with, bombardment is unlikely to lead to a satisfactory outcome. If history has shown one thing, it is that achieving a lasting resolution by bombing alone is almost impossible. There was a reason the United States sent ground forces into Iraq in 2003, and it was not to plant democracy. It was that American officials believed they could not solve the problem of Saddam Hussein’s weapons programs simply by bombing. They had tried that. The Clinton administration bombed Iraq for four days in 1998. At the end, they had no idea what they had destroyed and what they hadn’t. They certainly knew they had not put a permanent end to the program. In 2003, if George W. Bush thought he could have permanently ended Saddam’s weapons programs by bombing alone, he would have taken that option.
目前关于轰炸伊朗的辩论是超现实的。首先，轰炸不太可能导致令人满意的结果。如果历史表现出一件事，那就是几乎不可能通过轰炸实现持久的决议。2003年，美国将地面部队派往伊拉克是有原因的，这不是建立民主的原因。正是美国官员认为，他们不能仅仅通过轰炸而解决萨达姆·侯赛因的武器计划的问题。他们尝试了。克林顿政府在1998年轰炸了伊拉克四天。最后，他们不知道自己已经摧毁了什么，没有什么。他们当然知道自己没有永久地结束该计划。2003年，如果乔治·W·布什（George W. Bush）认为他本可以独自轰炸萨达姆（Saddam）的武器计划，那么他将采取这种选择。
Iran today poses the same dilemma. America’s weapons may be better than they were in 2003, its intelligence capabilities greater, and Iran may be weaker than it was even a year ago, but the problem remains. Bombing alone will not achieve a verifiable and lasting end to Iran’s nuclear program. It can buy time, and Israel’s strikes have done that. American strikes could extend that period, but a determined Iranian regime will likely try again. A permanent solution would require a far more intrusive international verification regime, which in turn would require a ground presence for protection.
今天的伊朗构成了同样的困境。美国的武器可能比2003年更好，其智能能力更大，而且伊朗可能比一年前弱，但问题仍然存在。仅轰炸将无法实现伊朗核计划的可验证且持久的终结。它可以花时间，以色列的罢工也做到了。美国的罢工可能会延长这一时期，但坚定的伊朗政权可能会再次尝试。永久解决方案将需要更加侵入性的国际验证制度，而国际验证制度反过来又需要在地面上进行保护。
However, that is not the main reason I oppose bombing Iran. Nor is it the reason I find the discussion of all of this so bizarre. You would never know, as The New York Times churns out its usual policy-option thumb-suckers, that the United States is well down the road to dictatorship at home.
但是，这不是我反对轰炸伊朗的主要原因。我也没有发现所有这些如此奇怪的讨论的原因。您永远不会知道，正如《纽约时报》（New York Times）搅动其通常的政策选项拇指般的人一样，美国正是在国内独裁统治的道路。
That is the context in which a war with Iran will occur. Donald Trump has assumed dictatorial control over the nation’s law enforcement. The Justice Department, the police, ICE agents, and the National Guard apparently answer to him, not to the people or the Constitution. He has neutered Congress by effectively taking control of the power of the purse. And, most relevant in Iran’s case, he is actively and openly turning the U.S. military into his personal army, for use as he sees fit, including as a tool of domestic oppression. Whatever action he does or doesn’t take in Iran will likely be in furtherance of these goals. When he celebrates the bombing of Iran, he will be celebrating himself and his rule. The president ordered a military parade to honor his birthday. Imagine what he will do when he proclaims military success in Iran. The president is working to instill in our nation’s soldiers a devotion to him and him alone. Imagine how that relationship will blossom if he orders what he will portray as a successful military mission.
这就是与伊朗发生战争的背景。唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）对国家执法部门采取了独裁的控制。司法部，警察，冰原特工和国民警卫队显然对他而不是对人民或宪法回答。他通过有效控制钱包的力量，使国会绝育了。而且，在伊朗的情况下，最重要的是，他积极，公开地将美国军方变成了他的个人军队，因为他认为合适，包括作为家庭压迫的工具。他在伊朗采取的任何行动或不采取任何行动都可能促进这些目标。当他庆祝对伊朗的轰炸时，他将庆祝自己和统治。总统下令进行军事游行，以纪念他的生日。想象一下，当他在伊朗宣布军事成功时，他将做什么。总统正在努力向我们国家的士兵灌输对他和他的奉献精神。想象一下，如果他命令他将其描绘成成功的军事任务，这种关系将如何开花。
Read: The three dramatic consequences of Israel’s attack on Iran
阅读：以色列袭击伊朗的三个戏剧性后果
Indeed, I can think of nothing more perilous to American democracy right now than going to war. Think of how Trump can use a state of war to strengthen his dictatorial control at home. Trump declared a state of national emergency in response to a nonexistent “invasion” by Venezuelan gangs. Imagine what he will do when the United States is actually at war with a real country, one that many Americans fear. Will he tolerate dissent in wartime? Woodrow Wilson locked up peace activists, including Eugene V. Debs. You think Trump won’t? He has been locking people up on flimsier excuses in peacetime. Even presidents not bent on dictatorship have taken measures in wartime that would otherwise be unthinkable.
的确，我现在对美国民主的看法比参加战争更危险了。想想特朗普如何利用战争状态来加强他在家的独裁控制。特朗普宣布委内瑞拉帮派不存在“入侵”的国家紧急状态。想象一下，当美国实际上与一个真实国家（许多美国人害怕的一个国家）交战时，他会做什么。他会在战时容忍异议吗？伍德罗·威尔逊（Woodrow Wilson）锁定了包括尤金·德布斯（Eugene V. Debs）在内的和平活动家。你认为特朗普不会吗？他一直在和平时期将人们锁定在脆弱的借口上。即使是不对独裁统治的总统也采取了战时措施，否则这是不可想象的。
Then there is the matter of terrorism. What if Iran is able to pull off a terrorist attack on U.S. soil in retaliation for an American strike? Or even just tries and fails? The courts will permit a president almost anything in the aftermath of an attack: Any restraints they’ve put on Trump will vanish. The administration may claim that anti-terrorism laws permit it to violate the rights of American citizens in the same way that it is currently violating the rights of the noncitizens being scooped off the streets by masked men. The attorney general has already threatened to use terrorism statutes to prosecute people who throw stones at Tesla dealerships. Imagine what she will do to anti-war protesters with the justification of a real terrorist threat.
然后是恐怖主义问题。如果伊朗能够对美国罢工进行报复对美国土壤的恐怖袭击，该怎么办？甚至只是尝试和失败？法院将在袭击发生后几乎允许总统任何事情：他们对特朗普的任何限制都会消失。政府可以声称，反恐法律允许其侵犯美国公民的权利，就像目前侵犯了被蒙面男人在街上sc起的非公民权利一样。总检察长已经威胁要使用恐怖主义法规来起诉那些向特斯拉经销店扔石头的人。想象一下，她将对反战抗议者采取什么措施，理由是真正的恐怖威胁。
Finally, there are the global implications. The United States is currently ruled by anti-liberal forces trying to overturn the Founders’ universalist liberal ideals and replace them with a white, Christian ethnoreligious national identity. American officials are actively supporting similar anti-liberal forces all around the world, including the current anti-liberal ethnoreligious government of Israel. Any success Trump claims in Iran, whatever its other consequences, will be a victory for the anti-liberal alliance and will further the interests of anti-liberalism across the globe. This is true even though the current regime in Iran is itself anti-liberal. Should the mullahs fall, Trump and Israel are likely to support a military strongman against any democratic forces that might emerge there. That has been Israel’s policy throughout the region, and even presidents who did not share Trump’s proclivity for dictators, such as Barack Obama, have acquiesced to Israel’s preferences. I’m not interested in using American military power to make the world safer for dictatorship.
最后，存在全球影响。美国目前由反自由主义力量统治，试图推翻创始人的普遍主义自由主义理想，并用白人，基督教民族宗教的民族身份代替他们。美国官员正在积极支持世界各地类似的反自由主义力量，包括现任的反自由民族宗教政府以色列。特朗普在伊朗的任何成功都将是反自由联盟的胜利，并将促进全球反自由主义的利益。即使伊朗的当前政权本身是反自由主义的，这也是如此。如果毛拉人跌倒，特朗普和以色列可能会支持军事强人反对任何可能出现的民主力量。那是整个地区的以色列政策，甚至没有分享特朗普对独裁者（例如巴拉克·奥巴马）的倾向的总统也默认了以色列的偏好。我对利用美国军事力量使世界更安全的独裁统治不感兴趣。
Read: Isn’t Trump supposed to be anti-war?
阅读：特朗普不应该是反战吗？
I might feel differently if Iran posed a direct threat to the United States. It doesn’t. The U.S. policy of containing Iran was always part of a larger strategy to defend a liberal world system with a liberal America at its center. Americans need to start thinking differently about our foreign policy in light of what is happening in our country. We can no longer trust that any Trump foreign-policy decision will not further illiberal goals abroad or be used for illiberal ends at home.
如果伊朗对美国构成直接威胁，我可能会有所不同。不是。美国遏制伊朗的政策始终是捍卫自由主义者制度的更大战略的一部分。根据我国正在发生的事情，美国人需要开始对我们的外交政策进行不同的思考。我们不能再相信任何特朗普的外交政策决定都不会进一步进一步的国外非法目标，也不会在家中用于自由目的。
Today, the United States itself is at risk of being turned into a military dictatorship. Its liberal-democratic institutions have all but crumbled. The Founders’ experiment may be coming to an end. War with Iran is likely to hasten its demise. Not that it matters, but count me out.
如今，美国本身有被变成军事独裁统治的风险。它的自由主义机构几乎都崩溃了。创始人的实验可能即将结束。与伊朗的战争可能会加速其灭亡。这并不重要，而是将我算出来。
