The end of Nicolás Maduro’s vicious dictatorship, many people can agree, would be a good thing. Millions of Venezuelans certainly want it; various members of the Trump administration have said they want it, too. The European Parliament passed a resolution urging world leaders to support Venezuela’s opposition to Maduro as a “moral duty.” And yet, leaders of that opposition have felt the need to come up with a more persuasive message: Helping Venezuela’s democratic cause is not just about doing the right thing, they imply. It’s also a chance to make bank.
尼古拉斯·马杜罗（NicolásMaduro）的恶性独裁统治的尽头，许多人可以同意，这是一件好事。数以百万计的委内瑞拉人当然想要。特朗普政府的各个成员也表示想要。欧洲议会通过了一项决议，敦促世界领导人支持委内瑞拉对马杜罗的反对作为“道德义务”。然而，这种反对派的领导人感到有必要提出一个更具说服力的信息：帮助委内瑞拉的民主事业不仅仅是做正确的事，他们暗示。这也是建立银行的机会。
Last Thursday, members of the press were invited to a Gilded Age mansion in Manhattan for a presentation titled “A Trillion-Dollar Opportunity: The Global Upside of a Democratic Venezuela.” At the center of the event was María Corina Machado, the woman who campaigned for president of Venezuela last year and would very likely have won, had Maduro’s regime not banned her from running and then declared victory over her substitute in what a Washington, D.C.–based think tank called “the mother of all electoral frauds.” (The Organization of American States agrees that “electoral fraud” took place.)
上周四，媒体的成员被邀请在曼哈顿担任镀金时代的豪宅，以题为“万亿美元的机会：民主党委内瑞拉的全球上升空间”的演讲。活动的中心是玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多（MaríaCorinaMachado），他去年曾为委内瑞拉竞选的女士竞选，如果马杜罗（Maduro）的政权没有禁止她奔跑，然后宣布胜利，然后宣布赢得她的替补，然后在华盛顿特区的智囊团中宣布胜利，这是所有选举欺诈的母亲。”（美国国家组织同意发生了“选举欺诈”。）
On a videochat from her hiding place in Caracas, Machado told the audience, in English, “Today, Venezuela stands on the brink of a historic transformation.” She was referring to a democratic transition, which she expressed confidence would soon happen—and to “the immense wealth-generation potential” that this transition would unleash. “This opportunity extends beyond our borders,” she said. International investors would “benefit from unparalleled conditions starting on day one.”
马查多（Machado）在她在加拉加斯（Caracas）的藏身之处的一个录像带上用英语告诉观众，“今天，委内瑞拉站在历史性转变的边缘。”她指的是民主过渡，她表示这种信心很快就会发生，并且“巨大的财富潜力”将释放这种过渡。她说：“这个机会超越了我们的边界。”国际投资者“从第一天开始就可以从无与伦比的条件中受益”。
What followed was not so much a press conference as a pitch to Wall Street. Sary Levy-Carciente, an economist on Machado’s team, took the microphone. Should the opposition come to power, “we are talking about 10 percent per year growth,” Levy-Carciente said, as aides handed out flyers listing sectors that would blossom under a hypothetical Machado-led government. These included tourism, where Venezuela is a “sleeping giant”; real estate, where “huge, huge profits” await; and, of course, fossil fuels, given that “Venezuela boasts the world’s largest oil reserves and the eighth-largest natural-gas reserves.” In 15 years, the money to be made from a democratic Venezuela—based on “conservative assumptions,” investors could rest assured—amounted to $1.7 trillion.
随之而来的不是新闻发布会，而是去华尔街的球场。马查多团队的经济学家Sary Levy-Carciente占据了麦克风。利维 - 卡尔科恩特说：“如果反对派上台，我们正在谈论每年增长10％的增长，”助手分发了在假设的马查多领导的政府下开花的传单上市部门。其中包括旅游业，委内瑞拉是一个“沉睡的巨人”；房地产，“巨额利润”等待着；当然，化石燃料，鉴于“委内瑞拉拥有世界上最大的石油储量和第八大天然气储量”。在15年的时间里，这笔钱是由民主党委内瑞拉（以“保守假设”为基础的，投资者可以放心）的资金，达到了1.7万亿美元。
Machado’s team did not explicitly address the precondition for unlocking this bonanza: the end of a 26-year dictatorship whose leader doesn’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. In the past year, Maduro has ramped up repression, disappeared prominent activists, and imprisoned even low-profile protesters. An atmosphere of fear has swept Venezuela. The presentation called for investment in a democratic Venezuela that doesn’t yet exist, without providing any guidance as to how exactly it was going to come into being. If Machado’s team had anyone in mind to facilitate this transition—say, someone in the Trump administration—no one said so.
马查多（Machado）的团队并未明确地解决解锁这一骗局的前提：一个26年独裁统治的终结，其领导者似乎并没有很快就会去任何地方。在过去的一年中，马杜罗（Maduro）加剧了压抑，消失了著名的激进主义者，甚至囚禁了低调的抗议者。恐惧的气氛席卷了委内瑞拉。该演讲要求对尚不存在的民主委内瑞拉进行投资，而没有提供有关其将要确切的指导。如果马查多（Machado）的团队有任何人想到这一过渡（例如，特朗普政府中的某人），就不会这样说。
Still, given that American financiers can do very little on their own to usher in the end of dictatorships in South America, Trump officials, if not Donald Trump himself, seemed to be the ultimate audience for the Machado team’s new message—suggesting a new perception, among Venezuelan opposition leaders, of what will move the Trump administration to help their cause.
尽管如此，鉴于美国金融家几乎无法自行迎接南美的独裁统治的结束，特朗普官员，即使不是唐纳德·特朗普本人，也似乎是马查多团队的新信息的最终听众 - 在委内瑞拉人反对领袖中，在委内瑞拉反对派领导人中有什么来帮助他们的事业。
During the first Trump administration, the notion that Washington might deliver Venezuela from Maduro didn’t seem all that far-fetched (and didn’t seem to require a profit motive). Trump often condemned Venezuela’s dictatorship. In front of an excited crowd of Venezuelans in Miami in 2019, the president proclaimed that Maduro’s days were numbered. He recognized Juan Guaidó, an opposition leader, as the interim president of Venezuela until the country could have free and fair elections. Dozens of nations around the world followed suit. The excitement fizzled out when it became clear that Maduro had no intention of relinquishing power, and Trump wasn’t willing or able to make him.
在第一个特朗普政府期间，华盛顿可能从马杜罗（Maduro）交付委内瑞拉的观念似乎并没有那么牵强（似乎不需要利润动机）。特朗普经常谴责委内瑞拉的独裁统治。总统在2019年在迈阿密的一群委内瑞拉人面前宣布，马杜罗的日子已经被编号。他承认反对派领导人胡安·瓜佐（JuanGuaidó）是委内瑞拉的临时总统，直到该国可以自由选举。世界各地数十个国家也效仿。当明显马杜罗无意放弃权力时，兴奋就消失了，特朗普不愿意或能够使他成为他。
Since that time, the Venezuelan opposition has gotten stronger. Machado is much more popular than Guaidó, who emerged seemingly out of nowhere. Guaidó won Washington’s backing because he happened to fill a certain role—he was the majority leader of the legislature—at a moment when that put him in line for the presidency. But Machado has a face that every Venezuelan recognizes because she has dedicated more than 20 years to fighting the country’s dictatorship. She can rally crowds in the most remote parts of Venezuela. Even so, the second Trump administration appears to be more interested in deporting Venezuelans from America than in supporting a politician who could make Venezuela more livable. Gone are the days when Trump vowed to apply “maximum pressure” on Maduro.
从那时起，委内瑞拉反对派变得越来越强。马查多（Machado）比瓜佐伊（Guaidó）更受欢迎，后者似乎无处不在。瓜佐赢得了华盛顿的支持，因为他碰巧扮演了某个角色（他是立法机关的多数党领袖），那一刻使他担任总统职位。但是马查多（Machado）的面孔是每个委内瑞拉人都认可的面孔，因为她已经致力20多年来与该国的独裁统治作斗争。她可以在委内瑞拉最偏远地区集会。即便如此，第二届特朗普政府似乎对驱逐美国的委内瑞拉人比支持一个可以使委内瑞拉更加宜居的政治家更感兴趣。特朗普发誓要对马杜罗施加“最大压力”的日子已经一去不复返了。
Read: Venezuela passed the torch, even if Maduro didn’t
阅读：委内瑞拉通过了火炬，即使马杜罗没有
I had a chance to ask Machado, just a couple weeks after Inauguration Day this year, what she expected from the new Trump administration. She said that she thought Trump would understand helping the Venezuelan opposition as a matter of “national security and hemispheric security,” given the regional threats posed by the Venezuelan government. Maduro, after all, was the reason for the migrant outflows; he has also tolerated the rise of Tren de Aragua, the criminal gang Trump so frequently references. She didn’t mention anything about economic interests.
我有机会问马查多（Machado），就在今年就职日几周后，她对新特朗普政府的期望。她说，鉴于委内瑞拉政府构成的区域威胁，她认为特朗普会理解以“国家安全和半球安全”的帮助，帮助委内瑞拉反对派。毕竟，马杜罗是移民流出的原因。他还容忍了特朗普犯罪团伙特朗格·阿拉古亚（Tren de Aragua）的崛起，如此频繁地参考。她没有提及经济利益。
Machado had worked out a theory for how regime change could come about in Venezuela. If other countries exerted sufficient pressure on Maduro’s government, she suggested, the “cost of preserving the status quo” would go up. Top officials would eventually figure that their interests were better served by negotiating an exit deal with the opposition. That’s why she supported American sanctions on Venezuela, regardless of what American think tanks and academics had to say about the pain they inflicted on Venezuelans. “Sanctions to those who violate human rights harm the Venezuelan people?” Machado scoffed. “What really harms the people is a criminal government that intentionally brought down our productive apparatus.”
马查多（Machado）提出了一个理论，说明委内瑞拉如何改变政权的变化。她建议，如果其他国家对马杜罗政府施加了足够的压力，那么“维护现状的成本”将会增加。高级官员最终会认为，通过与反对派达成退出协议，更好地为他们的利益服务。这就是为什么她支持对委内瑞拉制裁的制裁的原因，无论美国智囊团和学者对他们对委内瑞拉人的痛苦有何评论。“对侵犯人权的人的制裁损害了委内瑞拉人民吗？”马查多嘲笑。“真正损害人民的是一个故意降低我们生产性机构的犯罪政府。”
Machado does have one ally in the Trump administration: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who recently praised her as “the personification of resilience, tenacity, and patriotism.” In November 2022, President Joe Biden issued a license to allow the oil company Chevron to evade sanctions in order to extract oil in Venezuela. Rubio has called this a “pro-Maduro” gift and pushed to let it expire. Unfortunately, for Machado at least, Rubio is not the only person in Washington trying to set policy on Venezuela. Trump’s presidential envoy, Richard Grenell, appears to think that America stands to benefit from having a transactional relationship with Maduro. Shortly after the inauguration, Grenell traveled to Caracas to urge Maduro to accept deportation flights, and Maduro agreed to free six Americans detained in Venezuela. Grenell and Maduro shook hands and smiled for the camera—not exactly the “maximum pressure” Trump once promised to put on Maduro.
马查多在特朗普政府中确实有一个盟友：国务卿马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio），最近称她为“韧性，坚韧和爱国主义的人格化”。2022年11月，乔·拜登（Joe Biden）总统颁发了允许石油公司雪佛龙公司（Chevron）逃避制裁以在委内瑞拉提取石油的许可。卢比奥将其称为“亲马杜罗”礼物，并推动让它到期。不幸的是，至少对于马查多而言，卢比奥并不是华盛顿唯一试图制定委内瑞拉政策的人。特朗普的总统特使理查德·格雷内尔（Richard Grenell）似乎认为美国将从与马杜罗（Maduro）建立交易关系中受益。就职典礼后不久，格雷内尔前往加拉加斯敦促马杜罗接受驱逐出境的航班，而马杜罗同意释放六名美国人被拘留在委内瑞拉。格林内尔和马杜罗握手，为相机微笑，而不是特朗普曾经承诺要放在马杜罗的“最大压力”。
Late last month, as the Chevron license’s expiration date approached, Rubio and Grenell duked it out online. Grenell met with Maduro officials in the Caribbean, then went on a podcast to announce that the license would be extended–only for Rubio to contradict him the next day on X, where the secretary of state announced that the license would expire as scheduled. Eventually, the Trump administration settled on a compromise, extending the license but making it more restrictive. Observers have since talked about Rubio and Grenell as leaders of two competing factions within the Trump administration: the principled Venezuela hawks versus the pragmatists willing to make deals with Maduro.
上个月下半年，随着雪佛龙许可证的到期日期的临近，卢比奥和格雷内尔在网上进行了豪华。格林内尔在加勒比海的马杜罗官员会面，然后进行播客，宣布该许可将被延长 - 仅是卢比奥在第二天在X上与他矛盾，国务卿宣布该许可证将按计划到期。最终，特朗普政府解决了妥协，扩大了许可证，但使其更加限制。此后，观察家谈到了卢比奥（Rubio）和格雷内尔（Grenell）是特朗普政府中两个相互竞争的派系的领导人：原则上是委内瑞拉·霍克斯（Venezuela Hawks）与愿意与马杜罗（Maduro）达成协议的实用主义者。
Read: The price of humiliating Nicolás Maduro
阅读：羞辱尼古拉斯·马杜罗的价格
Now Machado appears to be trying to reconcile both sides. And she has a message for the pragmatists: Working with us will bring more financial benefits than dealing with Maduro.
现在，Machado似乎正在尝试调和双方。她对实用主义者有一条信息：与我们合作将带来比与马杜罗打交道更多的经济利益。
The stance has required an awkward bit of pragmatism from Machado herself. Her team has publicly urged the Trump administration not to revoke the protected status the Biden administration extended to Venezuelan immigrants. But Machado has also spoken in favor of deporting Venezuelan gang members to El Salvador, without questioning the Trump administration’s allegations that the Venezuelans it deported were, in fact, gang members. When I asked a question about this at the press conference, a moderator demurred, saying that such “political questions” would be answered at the end and asking if there were any more questions regarding the economic plan proposed.
这种立场需要从马查多自己身上尴尬的实用主义。她的团队已公开敦促特朗普政府不要撤销拜登政府扩展到委内瑞拉移民的受保护地位。但是马查多（Machado）也发表讲话，支持将委内瑞拉帮派成员驱逐到萨尔瓦多（El Salvador），而没有质疑特朗普政府指控其被驱逐出境的委内瑞拉人实际上是帮派成员。当我在新闻发布会上问一个问题时，主持人表示反对，说最终将回答这样的“政治问题”，并询问有关提出的经济计划是否还有更多问题。
In a profile for The Spectator last July, the writer Paola Romero described Machado as mixing “the crowd-pulling allure of Evita Peron with the politics of Margaret Thatcher.” Those are indeed the two Machados: one who tours her country to bring consoling messages of hope to Venezuela’s poorest, and another who wears a pantsuit and jewels and praises the merits of free markets and privatization. Last year, Machado’s presidential campaign was mostly Evita. The press conference was all Thatcher.
在去年7月的观众个人资料中，作家保罗·罗梅罗（Paola Romero）将马查多（Machado）描述为“埃维塔·佩隆（Evita Peron）的人群诱人与玛格丽特·撒切尔（Margaret Thatcher）的政治相结合。”这些确实是两个马查多斯（Machados）：一个游览她的国家，向委内瑞拉最贫穷的希望带来希望的信息，另一个穿着裤子和珠宝，并赞扬自由市场和私有化的优点。去年，马查多（Machado）的总统竞选主要是埃维塔（Evita）。新闻发布会就是撒切尔。
In her closing remarks, Machado said that the interests of “the people of Venezuela, democratic governments in the Western Hemisphere, and certainly investors” were all aligned. “This is a win-win situation.”
马查多在闭幕词中说，“委内瑞拉人民，西半球的民主政府以及肯定的投资者的利益都符合。“这是双赢的情况。”
