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Conventional housing wisdom dictates that if you can’t afford Los Angeles or New York City, try Austin or Atlanta. For years, astronomical prices, labyrinthine zoning laws, and dwindling square footage have driven renters and homeowners out of big coastal cities in droves. Their search for more affordable zip codes has frequently landed them in the Sun Belt, a region that stretches across America’s Southeast and Southwest.
传统的住房智慧表明，如果您负担不起洛杉矶或纽约市，请尝试奥斯汀或亚特兰大。多年来，天文价格，迷宫分区法律和平方英尺的衰落使租房者和房主脱离了大沿海城市。他们寻找更负担得起的邮政编码经常将它们降落在太阳带上，该地区遍布美国东南部和西南部。
But where some people struck housing gold, others are now seeing diminishing returns. In a recent story titled “The Whole Country Is Starting to Look Like California,” my colleague Rogé Karma reported that “over the past decade, the median home price has increased by 134 percent in Phoenix, 133 percent in Miami, 129 percent in Atlanta, and 99 percent in Dallas”—and these rates outpace New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Maybe Sun Belt cities aren’t as different from their coastal counterparts as we once thought. I spoke with Rogé to figure out what that might mean for the rest of the country.
但是，有些人击中了住房，而另一些人现在看到回报率降低。我的同事罗格·卡玛（RogéKarma）在最近的一个标题为“整个国家开始看起来像加利福尼亚”的故事中报道说：“在过去的十年中，凤凰城的中位房价上升了134％，迈阿密的133％，亚特兰大的129％，达拉斯的99％，在达拉斯（99％），在达拉斯（99％），在纽约州和纽约州，纽约州和洛斯·弗里斯·安吉利斯（Los Angeles）和这些比率。也许太阳腰带的城市与我们曾经想象的沿海同行没有什么不同。我与Rogé进行了交谈，以弄清楚这对全国其他地区意味着什么。
Stephanie Bai: You point to research suggesting that housing development in Sun Belt cities right now is at a similar point to big coastal cities 20 years ago. How does this trend challenge what experts thought they knew about those regions?
斯蒂芬妮·拜（Stephanie Bai）：您指出的是研究表明，目前在太阳腰带城市的住房发展与20年前的大沿海城市相似。这种趋势如何挑战专家对这些地区的了解？
Rogé Karma: The way that experts think about the U.S. housing market is really a tale of two housing markets. The commonly held opinion, and it’s been borne out by the data, is that it is really hard to build housing on the coasts, where anti-growth liberals impose excessive land-use regulations and zoning laws. Then you have the second housing market, which is the Sun Belt. This includes cities such as Miami and Phoenix and Dallas and Austin, which are building a seemingly endless supply of cheap housing under what appear to be looser regulations.
RogéKarma：专家考虑美国住房市场的方式确实是两个住房市场的故事。普遍认为的意见是由数据证明的，它确实很难在海岸上建造住房，在那里，反成长的自由主义者施加了过度的土地利用法规和分区法。然后，您将拥有第二个住房市场，即太阳带。其中包括迈阿密，凤凰城，达拉斯和奥斯汀等城市，这些城市正在建立似乎无尽的廉价住房供应，这似乎是宽松的法规。
But lately, you’re seeing prices spike in the same areas that used to be a refuge from spiking prices. Over the past 25 years, the rate of housing production in some major Sun Belt cities has fallen by half or more. Our housing market used to work in a very specific way: A problem on the coast was being solved by this pressure-release valve in the Sun Belt. But now that pressure-release valve is getting cut off.
但是最近，您看到的价格在以前是避难所的同一地区的价格上涨。在过去的25年中，一些主要的太阳带城市的住房产量降低了一半或更高。我们的住房市场过去曾以非常特殊的方式工作：海岸上的一个问题是由太阳带上的压力释放阀解决的。但是现在，压力释放阀已被切断。
Stephanie: How can the Sun Belt avoid looking like the next California?
斯蒂芬妮（Stephanie）：太阳腰带如何避免看起来像下一个加利福尼亚？
Rogé: One thing that became really clear to me was that these places that seem so different are actually suffering from the same affliction. I was surprised to find that the zoning regulations in some Sun Belt cities weren’t actually that much better than those in the coastal cities—that a lot of laws on the books were very similar and very restrictive. The way that Sun Belt cities were able to get around it was just by sprawling, and now that they’re starting to hit the limits of their sprawl, those same laws are a lot more binding.
罗格：对我来说真的很清楚的一件事是，这些似乎如此不同的地方实际上遭受了同样的痛苦。我很惊讶地发现，一些太阳带城市中的分区法规实际上并不比沿海城市的分区法规好得多，这些法律上的许多法律非常相似，而且非常限制。太阳带城市能够四处走动的方式只是通过蔓延，现在他们开始遇到蔓延的范围，这些法律具有更大的约束力。
Stephanie: Another big factor you cite for why development has slowed in the Sun Belt is NIMBYism. You described it as “the seemingly universal human tendency to put down roots and then oppose new development.” That psychology is fascinating to me—why do you think that impulse is so universal?
斯蒂芬妮（Stephanie）：您引用的另一个重要因素是为什么在太阳带上放缓的发展是敏捷。您将其描述为“看似普遍的人类倾向于扎根，然后反对新的发展”。那种心理学对我很着迷 - 您为什么认为冲动是如此普遍？
Rogé: One explanation is pure and simple economics. In America, people’s fortunes are largely bound up in their homes. If you allow a lot of development around you, the value of your home could fall.
Rogé：一种解释是纯粹而简单的经济学。在美国，人们的命运在很大程度上被束缚在他们的家中。如果您允许周围的大量发展，您的房屋价值可能会下降。
A second dynamic, and I’ve been influenced here by a paper by David Broockman and others, is an aesthetic one. Their research found that homeowners in cities are less opposed to new development than renters outside of cities are. Their explanation is that a lot of your position on new development comes down to your aesthetic preferences. I live in a neighborhood in D.C. that has high-rises everywhere. I moved there because I like density, and I like what it brings—diversity, good restaurants—whereas someone who moves to a suburb of Dallas might have moved there because they want more space, because they like white-picket-fence homes. Then all of a sudden, when a high-rise is proposed near them, they’re worried about that aesthetic changing. I think it’s a combination of materialism and aesthetic preference, and then a darker side: a reflexive opposition to newcomers, especially when those newcomers are different from you.
第二个动态，我受到了大卫·布鲁克曼（David Broockman）和其他人的论文的影响，这是一种美学。他们的研究发现，城市的房主对新发展的反对不如城市以外的房客。他们的解释是，您在新开发方面的许多立场都取决于您的美学偏好。我住在华盛顿特区的一个社区，到处都有高层建筑。我搬到那里是因为我喜欢密度，而且我喜欢它带来的东西 - 多样性，好餐馆 - 搬到达拉斯郊区的人可能会搬到那里，因为他们想要更多的空间，因为他们喜欢白色票房的房屋。然后突然之间，当他们附近提出了高层建筑时，他们担心这种美学的变化。我认为这是唯物主义和审美偏好的结合，然后是更黑暗的一面：对新移民的反思性反对，尤其是当这些新移民与您不同时。
Stephanie: If that mindset is so entrenched, can policy alone help overcome that impulse?
斯蒂芬妮：如果这种心态是如此根深蒂固，那么政策是否可以帮助克服这种冲动？
Rogé: Policy isn’t going to change people’s psychology, but here’s what it can do: It can change laws that allow people who have this NIMBYism tendency to have outsize influence. If a state decides that they don’t want to have as much development, that’s one thing. If one or two homeowners get to decide to block development, that’s another thing. We can at least make it so that a small group of people aren’t able to block development that would help hundreds, maybe even thousands, of people.
Rogé：政策不会改变人们的心理学，但这是它可以做的：它可以改变具有这种敏捷倾向的人具有巨大影响力的法律。如果一个国家决定他们不想有太多发展，那是一回事。如果一个或两个房主可以决定阻止发展，那是另一回事。我们至少可以做到这一点，以便一小部分人无法阻止发展，这将帮助数百人甚至数千人。
Stephanie: Speaking of big policy shifts, California recently rolled back a monumental environmental law that had been used to delay housing development in the state. How do you take that news? Will California start to look less like the paragon of the housing crisis in America?
斯蒂芬妮（Stephanie）：谈到加利福尼亚州的重大政策变化，最近又回滚了一项巨大的环境法，该法被用来延迟该州的住房发展。您如何获取这个消息？加利福尼亚州会开始看起来不像美国住房危机的典范吗？
Rogé: The California Environmental Quality Act is well known by housing activists everywhere. And you’re right, it’s a law that was originally created to protect the environment but has been weaponized to block not only dense housing but also solar farms and transit and other things that would actually reduce emissions. I’m very happy to see it reformed—that’s a step in the right direction.
Rogé：《加利福尼亚环境质量法》在各地的住房活动家众所周知。而且您是对的，这是一项最初是为了保护环境而制定的法律，但已被武器化，不仅可以阻止茂密的住房，还可以阻止太阳能农场和过境以及其他可以减少排放的东西。我很高兴看到它进行了改革 - 这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。
But California’s housing crisis has been metastasizing for decades; I don’t know if one change is going to have a big impact right away. I have much more hope for the Sun Belt states. One reason I focus on them in my story is that a lot of those cities aren’t that far gone. Raleigh, North Carolina, recently responded to the demand for housing with a slate of new reforms that made it much easier to build apartments and dense housing in more places, especially near transit.
但是加利福尼亚的住房危机数十年来一直在转移。我不知道一个更改是否会立即产生重大影响。我对太阳带状态有更多希望。我在故事中专注于它们的原因之一是，许多城市都没有那么遥远。北卡罗来纳州的罗利（Raleigh）最近通过一系列新的改革对住房的需求做出了回应，这使得在更多地方（尤其是在过境店附近）建造公寓和茂密的住房变得更加容易。
Stephanie: Maybe that’s the answer to my earlier question. The Sun Belt states can avoid becoming the next California if they take action on housing and zoning policies now.
斯蒂芬妮：也许这是我之前问题的答案。如果太阳皮带国家现在采取住房和分区政策采取行动，可以避免成为下一个加利福尼亚。
Rogé: Exactly. They can look at California and see their future.
Rogé：到底。他们可以看着加利福尼亚，看看他们的未来。
Related:
有关的：
Here are three new stories from The Atlantic:
这是来自大西洋的三个新故事：
Today’s News
今天的新闻
The House is reviewing the Senate’s revisions to President Donald Trump’s domestic-policy and tax bill. Ukraine’s defense ministry said that Ukraine was not notified that the Trump administration was suspending some munitions deliveries to the country. Bryan Kohberger accepted a plea deal and pleaded guilty to four counts of first-degree murder and burglary for the 2022 fatal stabbings of four University of Idaho students.
众议院正在审查参议院对唐纳德·特朗普总统的家庭政策和税收法案的修订。乌克兰国防部表示，乌克兰没有被告知特朗普政府正在暂停一些弹药的交付。布莱恩·科伯格（Bryan Kohberger）接受了一项认罪协议，并对四名爱达荷大学学生的2022年致命刺伤罪名成立了四项一级谋杀和入室盗窃罪。
Dispatches
派遣
The Weekly Planet: Hurricane science was great while it lasted, Zoë Schlanger writes. The U.S. is hacking away at support for state-of-the-art forecasting.
ZoëSchlanger写道，每周的星球：飓风科学很棒。美国正在支持最先进的预测。
Explore all of our newsletters here.
在这里探索我们所有的新闻通讯。
Evening Read
晚上阅读
Illustration by Chantal Jahchan. Source: GL Archive / Alamy.
Chantal Jahchan的插图。资料来源：GL档案 / Alamy。
The Making of Kurt Vonnegut’s Cat’s Cradle
库尔特·冯内古特（Kurt Vonnegut）的猫摇篮的制作
By Noah Hawley
诺亚·霍利（Noah Hawley）
When he arrived in Dresden, Vonnegut and his fellow POWs were put to work in a malted-syrup factory, making food for Germans that the POWs were not themselves allowed to eat. The guards were cruel, the work exhausting. Vonnegut was singled out and badly beaten. One night, as air-raid sirens roared, Vonnegut and the other POWs were herded into the basement of a slaughterhouse, huddling among the sides of beef as the city above them was bombed … Vonnegut described it this way in a letter to his family: “On about February 14th the Americans came over, followed by the R.A.F.” The combined forces “destroyed all of Dresden—possibly the world’s most beautiful city. But not me.”
当他到达德累斯顿时，冯内古特（Vonnegut）和他的同伴战俘被放在一家麦芽糖厂工厂工作，为德国人做食物，而那些自己不允许他们吃饭。警卫很残酷，工作疲惫。Vonnegut被挑出来，殴打。一天晚上，随着空气射击的警笛声咆哮，Vonnegut和其他战俘被放到屠宰场的地下室中，随着牛肉的侧面挤在牛肉的侧面，因为上面的城市被轰炸了……冯内古特在给他的家人的信中描述了这一点：”联合部队“摧毁了德累斯顿，可能是世界上最美丽的城市。但不是我。”
Read the full article.
阅读全文。
More From The Atlantic
来自大西洋的更多
Culture Break
文化中断
Eric Rojas
埃里克·罗哈斯（Eric Rojas）
Listen. Through the unconventional symbol of a Puerto Rican toad, Bad Bunny’s latest project captures the pain of culture loss, Valerie Trapp writes.
听。瓦莱丽·特拉普（Valerie Trapp）写道，通过波多黎各蟾蜍的非常规象征，Bad Bunny的最新项目捕捉了文化损失的痛苦。
Try this on for size. Claire McCardell changed fashion forever, Julia Turner writes. The designer advocated for pockets, denim, and ballet flats, revolutionizing clothing for women.
尝试一下尺寸。朱莉娅·特纳（Julia Turner）写道，克莱尔·麦卡德尔（Claire McCardell）永远改变了时尚。设计师倡导口袋，牛仔布和芭蕾舞平底鞋，彻底改变了女性的衣服。
Play our daily crossword.
播放我们的每日填字游戏。
