Weeks before he ended his first term, in December 2020, President Donald Trump was outraged that leaders in Tehran had announced plans to accelerate its nuclear program. He had a simple question: Why don’t we just bomb Iran?
在他结束第一任期的前几周，唐纳德·特朗普总统对德黑兰的领导人宣布了加速其核计划的计划感到愤怒。他有一个简单的问题：我们为什么不只是炸弹伊朗？
His advisers walked him through the options but cautioned that such an operation would likely result in the downing of American planes and the start of a regional war. Trump dropped the idea. “He didn’t want to leave a shit sandwich for his successor,” a former official told us. “He also recognized it wasn’t time yet.”
他的顾问们助长了他的选择，但警告说，这样的行动可能会导致美国飞机的降落和区域战争的开始。特朗普放弃了这个想法。一位前官员告诉我们：“他不想为他的继任者留下狗屎三明治。”“他还认识到还没有时间。”
Last weekend, with Iranian defenses worn to a nub by days of Israeli attacks, the time finally came. The surprise assault by B-2 bombers, which dropped 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bombs onto underground enrichment facilities, marked the most dramatic military action that Trump has ordered in either of his terms as president. The attack showed how Trump’s attitudes toward the use of force have evolved as he has grown more confident in his instincts as commander in chief and surrounded himself with advisers disinclined to challenge him. But it also reflected what hasn’t changed: Trump is willing to embrace serious risk in approving military operations, so long as it’s in a discrete burst rather than a sustained campaign. The president described the weekend bombing as a one-off that “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, not the start of a larger war.
上周末，在以色列袭击的日子里，伊朗的防御措施磨损到了一个核心，终于到了。B-2轰炸机的惊喜攻击将30,000磅重的“ Bunker-Buster”炸弹投向了地下富集设施，标志着特朗普以其任一条总统命令的最引人注目的军事行动。这次袭击表明，特朗普对武力使用的态度如何发展，因为他对他担任总司令的直觉变得更加自信，并与顾问们包围着自己不愿挑战他。但这也反映了没有改变的事情：特朗普愿意在批准军事行动时承担严重的风险，只要这是离散的爆发而不是持续的竞选活动。总统将周末轰炸描述为“消除”伊朗核计划的一次性，而不是更大的战争的开始。
If any Trump doctrine for military action does exist, it is perhaps best understood as the One-and-Done Doctrine.
如果确实存在任何特朗普的军事行动学说，那也许最好将其理解为一对教义。
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“Trump likes to think he can fire a bullet and leave the O.K. Corral, that the first move is decisive and the end of activity,” Kori Schake, the director of defense and foreign-policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute and a contributing writer at The Atlantic, told us.
“特朗普喜欢认为他可以发射一颗子弹，并离开O.K. Corral，第一步是决定性的，并且是活动的终结，”美国企业学院的国防和外国政策研究主任，大西洋的一位撰稿人科里·沙克（Kori Schake）告诉我们。
It’s not clear, however, that one attack will be enough. Assessments of the operation’s impact on Iran’s nuclear capability are divided, and Tehran is already vowing to push ahead, suggesting that additional U.S. action may be required if a diplomatic solution isn’t reached.
但是，尚不清楚一次攻击就足够了。评估该行动对伊朗核能的影响的评估被划分了，德黑兰已经发誓要继续前进，这表明如果未达成外交解决方案，可能需要采取其他美国行动。
During his first term, Trump railed against the “endless” and “forever wars” he had inherited, clashing repeatedly with his top security advisers as he sought to end counterinsurgent missions and pull troops from allied nations as part of his “America First” agenda. He also demonstrated willingness to deploy military force at significant moments, lobbing cruise missiles at Syria after chemical-weapons attacks, intensifying the air campaign against the Islamic State, and authorizing high-stakes operations such as the commando raid targeting ISIS boss Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and the drone strike killing Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani.
在他的第一个任期中，特朗普反对他继承的“无尽”和“永远的战争”，在他试图结束反叛任务并从盟国中撤出部队的一部分作为他的“美国首先”议程的一部分，反复与他的顶级安全顾问发生冲突。他还表现出了在化学武器袭击后在叙利亚部署军事力量的意愿，在叙利亚弹药，加剧了针对伊斯兰国的空中运动，并授权了诸如突击突击队的攻击行动，例如针对ISIS ISIS Boss Boss Abu Bakr al bakr al bakr al bakr al-baghdadi和无人驾驶袭击伊朗人军事领导人Qassemani Qassemani。
Trump took office in 2017 boasting that he knew better than “the generals.” But just days into the job, the first military operation he authorized—a hostage-recovery raid in Yemen—went badly awry: A Navy SEAL and numerous civilians were killed, and a $70 million aircraft was destroyed.
特朗普在2017年就职，吹嘘自己比“将军”更了解。但是，就在工作的几天之后，他授权的第一次军事行动（在也门袭击了人质搜查），这是一个严重的尴尬：海军海豹突击队和许多平民被杀，一架7000万美元的飞机被摧毁。
Other ventures were more successful: Trump oversaw a surge in progress in the campaign against ISIS, which began under President Barack Obama, as U.S. war planes beat back the militants in Syria. But when the advances slowed, Trump began to push for an end to the American presence—much to the chagrin of his military advisers. The turn revealed Trump’s discomfort with sustained campaigns that didn’t show measurable results, or that carried any whiff of a quagmire. In Afghanistan, the president pressed for a negotiated exit after the initial surge in military action he authorized—including the bombing of drug labs and the use of an explosive dubbed the “Mother of All Bombs”—failed to yield decisive results.
其他企业更为成功：特朗普监督了针对ISIS的运动进展的激增，ISIS始于巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）总统，因为美国战机击败了叙利亚的武装分子。但是，当进步放缓时，特朗普开始努力结束美国的存在 - 对他的军事顾问的恼火。转弯表明，特朗普对持续的运动感到不适，这些运动没有显示出可衡量的结果，或者带来了泥潭的任何味道。在阿富汗，总统在他授权的最初的军事行动激增后，敦促谈判退出，包括对毒品实验室的轰炸以及使用被称为“所有炸弹的母亲”的爆炸物，以产生决定性的结果。
All the while, Trump was feuding with some of his closest military aides. Jim Mattis, the Marine general who served as Trump’s first defense secretary, resigned in protest in 2018 after having attempted to block what he viewed as dangerous actions by the president. Mattis even defied demands from then–National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster for the Pentagon to send options for striking Iran. Trump also railed against historic arrangements he believed exploited American generosity, including U.S. support for NATO and the presence of American troops in places such as Germany and South Korea.
一直以来，特朗普一直在与他最亲密的军事助手争执。海军陆战队将军吉姆·马蒂斯（Jim Mattis）曾担任特朗普的第一任国防部长，他试图阻止他认为他认为危险行动的危险行动，于2018年辞职。马蒂斯（Mattis）甚至从当时的国家安全顾问H. R. McMaster（H. R. McMaster）违反了要求，五角大楼（Pentagon）向罢工伊朗发送选项。特朗普还反对他认为利用美国慷慨的历史安排，包括美国对北约的支持以及在德国和韩国等地方的美军存在。
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One outside adviser said that characterizing Trump as an isolationist misses the mark. “He has a pretty well-established history of dramatic short bursts of kinetic action, but not sustained military involvement in things,” the adviser told us. He suggested a precedent in President Andrew Jackson, who embraced nationalism and economically motivated expansionism for 19th-century America. Trump “doesn’t have an ideology, but if you had to try to sum it up, it’s more Jacksonian than isolationist or anti-interventionist,” the adviser told us.
一位外部顾问说，特朗普将其描述为孤立主义者，错过了这一点。这位顾问告诉我们：“他拥有巨大的动作行动短暂的历史，但没有持续的军事参与。”他建议安德鲁·杰克逊（Andrew Jackson）总统的先例，他接受了19世纪美国的民族主义和经济动机的扩张主义。顾问告诉我们，特朗普“没有意识形态，但是如果您不得不尝试总结一下，那比杰克逊主义者比孤立主义者或反干预主义者更重要。”
Many of the president’s advisers told us they believe that his blunt, tough-guy talk and his unpredictable tendencies—akin to Richard Nixon’s “madman theory”—have been effective in establishing deterrence with foreign adversaries. But Trump’s volatility has also at times frustrated his own advisers. In 2019, he made an eleventh-hour decision to call off a planned retaliatory strike on Iranian missile batteries in response to the country’s downing of a large U.S. drone over the Strait of Hormuz. The decision was based on an estimate of potential casualties on the ground in Iran that one military official said was wildly inaccurate. Then–National Security Adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were aghast at the choice to call off the strike, which they believed was proportionate and would deter future attacks.
许多总统的顾问告诉我们，他们相信他的直率，艰难的谈话和他不可预测的倾向 - 对理查德·尼克松（Richard Nixon）的“疯子理论”（Madman Theory）的阿凯（Akin）在与外国对手建立威慑方面有效。但是特朗普的波动有时也使自己的顾问感到沮丧。2019年，他做出了第11小时的决定，取消了对伊朗导弹炮电的计划报复性罢工，以回应该国在霍尔鲁兹海峡上击落一架美国大型无人机。该决定基于对伊朗当地潜在伤亡的估计，即一名军事官员说这是不准确的。然后 - 国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿（John Bolton）和国务卿迈克·庞培（Mike Pompeo）对取消罢工的选择感到震惊，他们认为这是相称的，会阻止未来的袭击。
“He’s capable of changing his mind right up until the very end, and when he’s finally decided that the decision has been carried out and he can’t reverse it, it’s very stressful for him,” Bolton told us. He said the recent Iran strikes tracked with the president’s preference for stand-alone, epic actions: “It fits with his short attention span, and it fits with the fact he doesn’t have a philosophy; he doesn’t have a grand strategy.”
博尔顿告诉我们：“他有能力改变思想直到最后，当他终于决定做出决定并且无法扭转这一决定时，这对他来说是非常压力的。”他说，最近的伊朗罢工与总统对独立的，史诗般的行动的偏爱相称：“这符合他短暂的注意力，这与他没有哲学的事实相吻合；他没有宏伟的策略。”
When Bolton worked in the first Trump administration, he was frequently at odds with the president. This time around, Trump has few people questioning his calls. Even those who are leery of foreign entanglement have fallen in line to support the strikes. Vice President J. D. Vance, for instance, has led the charge in recent days in messaging that the Iran operation was not about regime change, but rather the more narrow goal of debilitating the country’s nuclear program.
当博尔顿在第一个特朗普政府工作时，他经常与总统矛盾。这次，特朗普很少有人质疑他的电话。即使是那些外国纠缠的人，也已经陷入支持以支持罢工。例如，副总统J. D. Vance在最近几天就领导了有关伊朗行动的行动的指控，这不是政权的变化，而是使该国核计划衰弱的更狭窄的目标。
Vance is “going to be supportive of whatever the president wants to do, and there’s never going to be any daylight between the two of them, even privately,” the outside adviser told us.
万斯“将支持总统想做的一切，而且两个人之间的日光永远不会有任何日光，”外部顾问告诉我们。
Marco Rubio, now serving as secretary of state and national security adviser, has been “very deferential” to Trump, the adviser added. CIA Director John Ratcliffe, meanwhile, has kept to his position’s traditional lane, laying out the intelligence but not pushing any particular policy actions. “If he is putting his thumb on the scale one way or the other, then people aren’t going to trust his intelligence,” the adviser told us.
顾问补充说，现在担任国务卿和国家安全顾问的马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）对特朗普“非常有尊严”。同时，中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫（John Ratcliffe）一直遵守其职位的传统车道，阐述了情报，但没有采取任何特定的政策行动。顾问告诉我们：“如果他以一种或另一种方式将拇指放在尺度上，那么人们就不会相信他的情报。”
The White House is adamant both that Trump gets the advice he needs and that he never gets his decisions wrong. “President Trump has assembled a talented, world-class team who evaluate all angles of any given issue to provide the President a fulsome view,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly wrote to us in an emailed statement. “Ultimately, the President evaluates all options and makes the decision he feels is best for the country—and he has been proven right about everything time and again.”
白宫坚决既说特朗普得到了他需要的建议，而且他永远不会弄错他的决定。白宫副秘书安娜·凯利（Anna Kelly）在一封电子邮件声明中写道：“特朗普总统召集了一支才华横溢的世界一流团队，他们评估任何给定问题的所有角度，以提供总统的观点。”“最终，总统评估了所有选择，并做出他认为最适合该国的决定，并且他一次又一次地证明他是正确的。”
Retired General Frank McKenzie, who commanded U.S. forces in the Middle East when Trump targeted Soleimani, noted that the most dire possible scenarios following the Soleimani strike and after those on the nuclear sites haven’t borne out—at least so far. That may be because, in his view, Trump has accrued more credibility than other American presidents when it comes to threatening Iran.
退休的弗兰克·麦肯齐（Frank McKenzie）将军在特朗普（Trump）瞄准Soleimani时指挥美国部队，他指出，Soleimani罢工之后的最可怕的情况，以及在核地点上尚未出现的情况下，至少到目前为止。这可能是因为在威胁伊朗时，特朗普比其他美国总统更具信誉。
“He’s got a verifiable, auditable trail. He struck Iran twice; no other American president has done that,” McKenzie told us.
麦肯齐告诉我们：“他有一条可验证，可审核的步道。他两次袭击了伊朗；没有其他美国总统这样做。”
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Trump’s Iran operation marked an unexpected deviation from what has been his administration’s second-term focus on negotiations. Trump has said he wants diplomatic deals that not only halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions but also end the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and beyond. Now Trump may have more leverage in those talks.
特朗普的伊朗行动标志着他政府对谈判的第二任专注的意外偏离。特朗普说，他希望外交协议不仅阻止伊朗的核心野心，而且还结束了乌克兰，加沙及其他地区的战争。现在，特朗普在这些谈判中可能有更多的杠杆作用。
“This guy really wanted a negotiation, and now he’s done his one-and-done, and he wants to go back to negotiations,” Ian Bremmer, who leads the consultancy and research firm Eurasia Group, told us.
“这个家伙真的想要谈判，现在他已经完成了一劳永逸，他想回去谈判，”领导咨询公司和研究公司Eurasia Group的伊恩·布雷默（Ian Bremmer）告诉我们。
One of Trump’s more curious moves since returning to office was his decision to authorize a weeks-long air campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Biden administration had occasionally struck military targets in Yemen but had judged that the Houthis were unlikely to drop their tactic of attacking commercial and naval vessels, no matter what kind of military beating they received.
自从返回办公室以来，特朗普最奇怪的举动之一是他决定授权对也门的霍蒂叛军进行长达数周的空中运动。拜登政府偶尔会在也门袭击军事目标，但判断胡希斯不太可能放弃攻击商业和海军船只的策略，无论他们收到了什么样的军事殴打。
Trump abruptly halted the campaign and declared victory in May, even though the Houthis retain significant military capability and vowed to continue their assaults on Israel. But Trump had moved on. That may not be so easy if Iran resumes its nuclear activity or continues to support proxy militant groups throughout the Middle East.
特朗普突然停止了竞选活动，并在5月宣布胜利，即使胡希（Houthis）保留了重要的军事能力，并誓言继续对以色列的袭击。但是特朗普继续前进。如果伊朗恢复其核活动或继续支持整个中东的代理激进组织，那可能并不容易。
“You’re going to have a hard time ignoring Iran,” the former official told us, “and it’s going to be much harder to change the subject.”
这位前官员告诉我们：“您将很难忽略伊朗，而且改变主题将很难。”
