Yesterday marked one year since Joe Biden’s debate meltdown against Donald Trump. Happy anniversary to those who observe such things, or are triggered by such things. Please celebrate responsibly.
自乔·拜登（Joe Biden）对唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的辩论崩溃以来，昨天是一年。祝您观察这些事情或被这些事情触发的人周年快乐。请负责任地庆祝。
For Democrats, the debacle was a harsh awakening and the start of an ongoing spiral. Prior to that night, they could hold on to the delusion that the party might somehow eke out one last victory from Biden’s degraded capacity and ward off another four-year assault from Donald Trump. But that all exploded into the gruesome reality of June 27, 2024. Every interested viewer that night remembers where they were, their various feelings (depending on their perspectives) of revulsion, grief, glee, or disbelief.
对于民主党人来说，崩溃是一种苛刻的觉醒和持续螺旋的开始。在那天晚上，他们可能会坚持这样的幻想，即该党可能以某种方式从拜登（Biden）退化的能力中获得最后的胜利，并阻止唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的另一项为期四年的袭击。但是，这一切都爆发到了2024年6月27日的可怕现实中。当晚的每个感兴趣的观众都记得他们在哪里，各种各样的感受（取决于他们的观点）对令人反感，悲伤，欢乐或怀疑的感觉。
I was watching at home, thinking for some reason that Biden might exceed his humble expectations. He had managed to do this periodically on big stages during his presidency—including the feisty State of the Union address he’d turned in a few months earlier. But by the time Biden walked to his podium in Atlanta, it was clear that was not happening. Something was off. The elderly president looked visibly stiffer than usual, like he was wrapped in cardboard. As co-moderator Jake Tapper of CNN unfurled his opening question—about rising grocery and home prices—Biden’s eyes bugged out, as if he was stunned. His face was a drab gray color. I remember thinking there was something wrong with my TV, until the texts started rolling in. A friend observed that Biden looked “mummified” on the stage. “Is he sick?” my wife asked as she entered the room.
我在家看，出于某种原因认为拜登可能会超出他谦虚的期望。在担任总统期间，他设法定期在大阶段进行此操作，包括几个月前他在国际电联讲话中发表的顽强状态。但是，当拜登走到亚特兰大的领奖台时，很明显，这还没有发生。有些事情发生了。这位年老的总统看上去比平时明显更严厉，就像他被包裹在纸板上一样。当CNN的联合调制员杰克·塔珀（Jake Tapper）解开了他的开幕式问题（大约是杂货店和房价上涨），比登的眼睛被烦恼，好像他被惊呆了。他的脸是单调的灰色。我记得我的电视有些问题，直到文字开始滚动为止。一个朋友观察到拜登在舞台上看起来“木乃伊”。“他生病了吗？”我妻子进入房间时问。
Not a great start.
不是一个好的开始。
And this was before Biden had even said a word. Then he spoke—or tried to. Biden’s voice didn’t really work at first. It was raspy; he kept stopping, starting, dry-coughing. After a few sentences, everything was worse. “Oh my god,” came another text, which was representative of the early returns. “My mother told me she’s crying,” read another. (This person’s mother is evidently not a Trump supporter.) My wife left the room.
这是在拜登说一句话之前。然后他说话或试图。拜登的声音起初并没有真正起作用。那是raspy;他不断停下来，开始止咳。经过几句话，一切都更糟。“哦，我的上帝，”另一条文字是代表早期回报的代表。“我妈妈告诉我她在哭。”另一个人读。（这个人的母亲显然不是特朗普的支持者。）我妻子离开了房间。
Mark Leibovich: Where is Barack Obama?
马克·莱博维奇：巴拉克·奥巴马在哪里？
Now here we are a year later. Democrats have been battered by events since. First among them was Trump’s victory in November, in which traditional Democratic constituencies such as Black, Hispanic, and young voters defected to the GOP in large numbers. This was followed by the onslaught of Trump’s second administration. Democrats keep getting described (or describing themselves) as being “in the wilderness,” though at this point “the wilderness” might be a generous description; it at least offers peace and quiet—as opposed to, say, your average Democratic National Committee meeting in 2025.
现在，我们是一年后。此后，民主党人被事件遭到殴打。其中首先是特朗普在11月的胜利，其中传统的民主选民，例如黑人，西班牙裔和年轻选民，大量叛逃了共和党。随后是特朗普第二届政府的袭击。民主党人不断被描述（或描述自己）是“在旷野”，尽管此时“荒野”可能是一个慷慨的描述。它至少提供了和平与宁静，就像您在2025年的普通民主党全国委员会会议一样。
Or, for that matter, the aftermath of this week’s Democratic primary in the New York City mayor’s race. Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist state assemblyman from Queens, became an instant It Boy with his upset of scandal-soiled former Governor Andrew Cuomo. As happens with many progressive sensations these days, Mamdani’s victory was immediately polarizing. New York Democrats seem split over the result: On one side are lukewarm establishment titans such as Senate and House Minority Leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries; on the other are progressive demigods such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders.
或者，就此而言，本周在纽约市市长种族中的民主党初选的后果。来自皇后区的民主社会主义州议员佐兰·曼达尼（Zohran Mamdani）因丑闻而沮丧的前州长安德鲁·库莫（Andrew Cuomo）而感到不安。如今，许多渐进式的感觉都发生了，Mamdani的胜利立即两极分化。纽约民主党人似乎对结果分歧：一方面是参议院和众议院少数民族领导人查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）和哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）等冷淡的泰坦。另一个是进步的半神，例如代表亚历山大·奥卡西奥·科尔特斯（Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez）和参议员伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）。
The usual Democratic divides revealed themselves: insurgent versus establishment, socialist-adjacent versus moderate, young versus old (except for Bernie, the ageless octogenarian forever big with the kids). The deeply unpopular incumbent, Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat in 2021, is running for reelection as an independent; despite getting trounced in the primary, Cuomo plans to stay in the race—running on something called the “Fight and Deliver” ballot line. Mamdani is the clear favorite to prevail in November. But no one knows anything for sure, except that everything feels like a muddled mess, which has pretty much been the Democrats’ default posture since the Abomination in Atlanta a year ago.
通常的民主鸿沟揭示了自己：叛乱与机构，社会主义与温和，年轻人与古老（除了伯尼（Bernie），伯尼（Bernie），《永恒的八分代人》永远与孩子们在一起）。不受欢迎的现任人埃里克·亚当斯（Eric Adams）于2021年当选为民主党人，他正竞选连任。尽管库莫（Cuomo）在初选中被击败，但仍计划留在比赛中，这是在“战斗和交付”投票线上进行的。Mamdani是11月盛行的最爱。但是，没有人可以肯定地知道任何事情，除了一切感觉都像混乱的混乱，这几乎是民主党以来一年前憎恶以来的默认姿势。
The party’s grass roots are showing genuine energy these days. Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez drew five-figure crowds at their “Fighting Oligarchy” rallies this spring. The nationwide “No Kings” protests two weekends ago were indicative of a galvanized protest movement eager to be led. Yet these signs of Trump resistance are mostly happening separate from the Democratic apparatus. As my colleague David Graham recently wrote, the “No Kings” spectacles were themselves, paradoxically, a sign of how rudderless the party now finds itself. With a few exceptions, the Democratic leadership ranks have been largely AWOL. They toggle and flail between quiet paralysis and loud frustration, especially with one another.
这些天，该党的基层正在表现出真正的能量。桑德斯（Sanders）和奥卡西奥·科尔特斯（Ocasio-Cortez）在今年春天的“战斗寡头”集会上吸引了五位数的人群。两个周末前，全国“无国王”抗议活动表明渴望带领的镀锌抗议运动。然而，这些王牌抵抗的迹象主要与民主仪器分开。正如我的同事戴维·格雷厄姆（David Graham）最近写道的那样，“无国王”眼镜本身就是自相矛盾的，这表明该党现在如何无舵。除少数例外，民主领导级的排名在很大程度上是AWOL。他们在安静的瘫痪和大声的挫败感之间切换和flail，尤其是彼此之间。
Mark Leibovich: The week that changed everything for Gavin Newsom
马克·莱博维奇（Mark Leibovich）：改变了Gavin Newsom的一切
Democrats have spent an inordinate amount of time and energy relitigating Biden’s tenure in the White House—whether he was fit to be there and how frail he had become. The phrase cognitive decline still comes up a lot, for obvious reasons, none of them fun or especially constructive. The 2024 campaign has also come in for a spirited rehash—especially among factions of Biden world, the Kamala Harris–Tim Walz campaign, and the various PACs and outside groups ostensibly designed to support them. Republicans have of course relished every chance to revisit Biden’s deterioration. The media have hammered this theme as well, most notably Tapper and his co-author, Alex Thompson of Axios, whose blockbuster autopsy, Original Sin, has been at or near the top of The New York Times’ nonfiction best-seller list for several weeks.
民主党人花费了大量的时间和精力来巩固拜登在白宫的任期，无论他是否适合在那里以及他变得多么脆弱。出于明显的原因，这句话的认知下降仍然很大，没有一个有趣或特别建设性的。2024年的竞选活动也进行了一次充满活力的重新进行，尤其是在Biden World的派系中，Kamala Harris -Tim Walz竞选活动以及表面上旨在支持他们的各种PAC和外部团体。当然，共和党人很乐意重新审视拜登的恶化。媒体也抨击了这个主题，最著名的是塔珀和他的合着者Axios的Alex Thompson，他的刻板尸体尸检（原始罪恶）已经在《纽约时报》的非小说类畅销书名单的顶部或附近。
The surest way for Democrats to move on would be to jump straight to the future: Look to 2028, as quickly as possible. Presidential campaigns at their best can be forward-looking, wide-open, and aspirational. Yes, local elections—and certainly the 2026 midterms—are important, and maybe even promising for the party. But not as important as picking a new national leader, something the Democrats have not really done since Barack Obama was first elected in 2008. Among the many tragedies of Biden’s last act was that he delayed his party, indefinitely, from anointing its next generation.
民主党人继续前进的最可靠方法是直接跳到未来：尽快到2028年。最好的总统竞选活动可能是前瞻性，开放和理想的。是的，当地选举 - 当然是2026年的中期 - 对党派很重要，甚至可能有望。但是，自从巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）于2008年首次当选以来，民主党人并没有真正做到这一点。
Trump himself might not be on the ballot in 2028, but he’s still giving his opposition plenty to run against. So Democrats might as well take the show national and start now, if for no other reason than to escape from fractures of the present and circular nightmares of the recent past. Which began, more or less, on June 27 of last year. When Democrats stop dwelling on that disaster and what followed, that might signal that they’re finally getting somewhere.
特朗普本人可能在2028年不参加投票，但他仍在给反对派大量对抗。因此，民主党人不妨将表演全国开始，现在就开始，如果出于其他理由逃脱了最近的过去和循环噩梦。去年6月27日开始或多或少。当民主党停止居住在这场灾难和随后的事情上时，这可能表明他们终于到达了某个地方。
