Updated at 12:35 p.m. ET on June 26, 2025
下午12:35更新美国东部时间于2025年6月26日
For more than 40 years, the United States—a nation that putatively cherishes freedom—has had one of the largest prison systems in the world. Mass incarceration has been so persistent and pervasive that reform groups dedicated to reducing the prison population by half have often been derided as made up of fantasists. But the next decade could see this goal met and exceeded: After peaking at just more than 1.6 million Americans in 2009, the prison population was just more than 1.2 million at the end of 2023 (the most recent year for which data are available), and is on track to fall to about 600,000—a total decline of roughly 60 percent.
40多年来，美国（一个推定的珍惜自由的国家）是世界上最大的监狱制度之一。大规模监禁是如此持久和普遍存在，以至于致力于减少监狱人口的改革团体通常被嘲笑为幻想家的组成。但是接下来的十年可能会达到和超过这一目标：在2009年达到高峰超过160万美国人之后，到2023年底，监狱人口仅超过120万（最近的数据可用数据），并且有望降至60万，总计约60％。
Discerning the coming prison-population cliff requires understanding the relationship between crime and incarceration over generations. A city jail presents a snapshot of what happened last night (for example, the crowd’s football-victory celebration turned ugly). But a prison is a portrait of what happened five, 10, and 20 years ago. Middle-aged people who have been law-abiding their whole life until “something snapped” and they committed a terrible crime are a staple of crime novels and movies, but in real life, virtually everyone who ends up in prison starts their criminal career in their teens or young adulthood. As of 2016—the most recent year for which data are available—the average man in state prison had been arrested nine times, was currently incarcerated for his sixth time, and was serving a 16-year sentence.
辨别即将到来的监狱居民悬崖需要了解世代相传的犯罪与监禁之间的关系。一个城市的监狱展示了昨晚发生的事情的快照（例如，人群的足球庆祝活动变得丑陋）。但是，监狱是五，10和20年前发生的事情的肖像。一直在法律审判的中年人，直到“被抢购一点”并犯下可怕的犯罪是犯罪小说和电影的主食，但是在现实生活中，几乎每个最终入狱的人都在十几岁时或年轻的成年后开始犯罪事业。截至2016年，该数据可获得的最新一年 - 州监狱中的普通男子已被捕了9次，目前被监禁第六次，并被判处16年徒刑。
Because of that fundamental dynamic, the explanation for why roughly 1.6 million people—more than 500 for every 100,000 Americans—were in a state or federal prison in 2009 has very little to do with what was happening on the streets or with law-enforcement policies that year. Rather, the causes lay in the final decades of the 20th century.
由于这种基本动力，为什么在2009年在州或联邦监狱中大约有160万人（每10万美国人）大约有160万人（超过500人）与当年的街头或执法政策无关。相反，在20世纪的最后几十年中，原因是。
From the end of World War II until the mid-1970s, the proportion of Americans in prison each year never exceeded 120 per 100,000. But starting in the late 1960s, a multidecade crime wave swelled in America, and an unprecedented number of adolescents and young adults were criminally active. In response, the anti-crime policies of most local, state, and federal governments became more and more draconian. The combined result was that the prison population exploded. By 1985, the imprisonment rate had doubled from its historical norm, such that more than 200 in 100,000 Americans were in a state or federal prison. The number of people in prison increased an average of 8 percent a year for the next decade, breaching the 1 million mark in 1994 and continuing to grow until 2009. This had ramifications that were felt for years: Because most people who are released from prison return, the system has been stocked and restocked with the legacy of that American crime-and-punishment wave for a quarter century. That’s why the 2009 peak of U.S. imprisonment came 18 years after the 1991 peak in the violent-crime rate. The prison system is like a badly overloaded tractor trailer—it takes a long time to stop even after the brakes are hit.
从第二次世界大战结束到1970年代中期，每年监狱中的美国人比例从未超过每100,000人120。但是从1960年代后期开始，美国的一波犯罪浪潮在美国膨胀，史无前例的青少年和年轻人犯了刑事犯罪活动。作为回应，大多数本地，州和联邦政府的反犯罪政策变得越来越严厉。综合结果是监狱人口爆炸。到1985年，监禁率与其历史规范相比增加了一倍，因此，有100,000名美国人中有200多个处于州或联邦监狱。在未来十年中，入狱人数平均每年增加8％，违反了1994年的100万大关，并一直在2009年增长。这种后果有多年的后果：因为大多数被释放从监狱返回的人，该系统已经库存，并与四分之一世纪的美国犯罪和政策浪潮相关联。这就是为什么2009年美国监禁的原因是1991年峰值的暴力犯罪率18年。监狱系统就像是一个重载的拖拉机拖车，即使刹车被击中，也需要很长时间才能停止。
David A. Graham: The good news about crime
David A. Graham：关于犯罪的好消息
That tractor trailer is finally slowing down, decades after the “great crime decline” began in the 1990s. Until 2009, the lengthier sentences handed down during the preceding crime wave and the tendency of released prisoners to be re-incarcerated kept imprisonment rising even as crime declined. But the falling crime that the U.S. experienced in the 1990s and 2000s is now finally translating into a shrinking prison population.
在1990年代开始“大犯罪下降”之后的几十年，拖拉机拖车终于放慢了速度。直到2009年，在犯罪浪潮期间，较长的判决和被释放的囚犯被重新囚禁的趋势趋于不断上升。但是，美国在1990年代和2000年代遭受的犯罪下降现在终于转化为越来越多的监狱人口。
This chart, using data from the U.S. Department of Justice, shows the collapse of criminal arrests of minors in the 21st century. Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. The U.S. had an extremely high-crime generation followed by a lower-crime generation, meaning that the older population is not being replaced at an equal rate. The impact of this shift on the prison population began more than a decade ago but has been little noticed because it takes so long for the huge prison population of longer provenance to clear.
该图表使用美国司法部的数据，显示了21世纪未成年人的刑事逮捕。年轻人数量迅速下降，正在犯罪，被捕并被监禁。这很重要，因为年轻的罪犯是为监狱制度提供的原材料：随着一代的变化，另一代人在同一可怕的旅程中取代了它。美国的产生极高，随后是低犯罪的一代，这意味着没有以相等的速度替代老年人。这种转变对监狱人口的影响始于十多年前，但几乎没有注意到，因为较长的出处的庞大监狱人口需要很长时间才能清除。
But such a transformation is now well under way. One statistic vividly illustrates the change: In 2007, the imprisonment rate for 18- and 19-year-old men was more than five times that of men over the age of 64. But today, men in those normally crime-prone late-adolescent years are imprisoned at half the rate that senior citizens are today.
但是，这种转变现在正在进行中。一个统计数据生动地说明了这一变化：2007年，18岁和19岁男性的监禁率是64岁以上的男性的五倍以上。但是，如今，那些通常容易发生犯罪的年后期的男性被囚禁的一半是老年人今天的一半。
As the snake digests the pig year after year, the American prison system is simply not going to have enough inmates to justify its continued size or staggering costs. Some states that are contemplating expanding their prison capacity will be wasting their money—their facilities will be overbuilt and underused. By 2035, the overall imprisonment rate could be as low as 200 per 100,000 people. States should instead be tearing down their most deteriorated and inhumane correctional facilities, confident that they will not need the space.
随着蛇年复一年地消化猪的消化，美国监狱系统根本没有足够的囚犯来证明其持续的规模或打击的成本是合理的。一些正在考虑扩大其监狱能力的州将浪费他们的钱 - 他们的设施将被过度建立和没有用。到2035年，总体监禁率可能低至每10万人200人。相反，各州应该拆除他们最恶化和最不人道的惩教设施，并确信他们不需要空间。
This optimistic analysis could have been written in 2019, when the imprisonment rate had been falling for more than a decade and hit a level not seen since 1995. I thought about writing this article then, but a world turned upside down shook my confidence.
这种乐观的分析本来可以在2019年写的，当时监禁率已经下降了十多年，并达到了自1995年以来从未见过的水平。我当时考虑写这篇文章，但是一个世界颠倒了，使我的信心震惊。
COVID initially looked like a boon for decarceration because states reduced prison admissions and accelerated releases in 2020 to reduce transmission, cutting the prison population by 16 percent. But whether it was due to this mass release, COVID, de-policing, other factors, or some combination thereof, crime exploded in 2020 after a long quiescent period, most shockingly with an unprecedented 30 percent increase in homicides. Crime spikes increase incarceration directly because more people are committing crimes and also because they lead the public to demand more aggressive policies, which often translate into longer and more frequent prison sentences. If the turmoil of the early 2020s had led to an extended period of high crime and high punishment similar to what the U.S. experienced in the late 20th century, the COVID-era contraction of the prison population could have been immediately nullified and then some when, in the ensuing years, the prison pipeline was eventually replenished.
Covid最初看上去像是脱牙的福音，因为说明了2020年监狱入院和加速释放以减少传播，从而减少了监狱人口的16％。但是，无论是由于这个大规模释放，共同释放，撤销，其他因素还是某种组合，犯罪在漫长的静止期间在2020年爆发，最令人震惊的是，凶杀案的前所未有30％。犯罪峰值直接增加了监禁，因为越来越多的人犯下了犯罪，并且因为他们导致公众要求更具侵略性的政策，这通常会转化为更长，更频繁的监狱刑罚。如果2020年代初期的动荡导致长期犯罪和高惩罚与美国在20世纪末经历的惩罚相似，那么监狱人口的共同收缩可能立即被无效，然后在随后的几年中，有些人最终补充了监狱管道。
But thankfully, the spike was just a spike, not a new equilibrium. Crime stopped rising sometime in 2022, and fell in 2023 and 2024. The prison population inched up 2 percent in 2022 and again in 2023, and it is possible that a similar rise took place in 2024, but even collectively, this is a fraction of the sudden population decline during the early pandemic. The COVID era ended with prison populations lower rather than higher: A recent Vera Institute report found that, on balance, from 2019 to the spring of 2024, the number of federal prisoners declined by 11 percent, and the number of state prisoners declined by 13 percent.
但值得庆幸的是，尖峰只是一个尖峰，而不是一个新的平衡。犯罪在2022年的某个时候停止上升，并在2023年和2024年下降。监狱人口在2022年和2023年再次上升了2％，可能在2024年发生了类似的上升，但即使是集体上升，这也是大流行期间突然人口的一小部分。共同时代以较低的监狱人口而不是更高的速度结束：最近的一份维拉研究所的报告发现，从2019年到2024年春季，联邦囚犯人数下降了11％，州囚犯的数量下降了13％。
Accelerating the de-prisoning of America is worthwhile and possible. The benefits of a smaller prison population are not limited to those who would otherwise be locked up and the people who love them. Prisons crowd out other policy priorities that many voters would like the government to spend more money on. In all 50 states, the cost to imprison someone for a year significantly exceeds the cost of a year of K–12 education. But even greater than the financial savings would be the prosperity in human terms: Less crime and less incarceration are profound blessings for a society.
加速美国的狱卒是值得的，而且可能是可能的。较小的监狱人口的好处不仅限于那些否则会被锁定的人和爱他们的人。监狱挤出了许多选民希望政府花更多钱的其他政策优先事项。在所有50个州，将某人监禁一年的费用大大超过了K – 12年教育的一年费用。但是，从人类的角度来看，甚至超过财务节省的要素是繁荣：更少的犯罪和监禁是社会的深刻祝福。
Lenore Anderson: The people most ignored by the criminal-justice system
莱诺·安德森（Lenore Anderson）：被刑事司法系统最忽略的人
The simplest available policy to accelerate the decarceration trend is to stop building prisons except in cases where a smaller, modern facility is replacing a larger, decaying institution. Though it will be nonintuitive to many reformers, particularly on the left, opposition to any such new facilities being private should be dropped. The principal political barrier to closing half-full prisons is the power of public-sector unions. In contrast, a private prison can be sent to its reward if its contract is canceled. Individual communities in areas of low employment will also fight to keep their prisons. Prison-closing commissions, analogous to military-base-closing commissions, may be necessary and should coordinate with legislators to provide worker retraining and financial assistance to compensate for the loss of high-wage jobs in communities whose economy revolves around corrections.
加速脱爪趋势的最简单的政策是停止建造监狱，除非一个较小的现代设施取代更大，腐烂的机构。尽管这对许多改革者，尤其是左派对任何新设施的反对都应该被放弃。关闭半完整监狱的主要政治障碍是公共部门工会的力量。相比之下，如果取消合同，则可以将私人监狱寄给其奖励。较低的就业地区的个别社区也将努力保持监狱。可能有必要采用监狱关闭委员会，类似于与军事基本的委员会相似的佣金，并应与立法者协调以提供工人培训和经济援助，以弥补经济围绕更正的社区中高薪工作的损失。
Doug Dubois and Jim Goldberg / Magnum
Doug Dubois和Jim Goldberg / Magnum
Finally, America should not let its prison system become the most expensive and inhumane of nursing homes. The rate of recidivism among senior citizens is near zero, and compassionate release of sick and aging inmates should be the default rather than the exception, a reversal of current practice.
最后，美国不应让其监狱系统成为疗养院中最昂贵，最不人道的。老年人之间的累犯率接近零，富有同情的释放病态和老龄化的囚犯应该是违约而不是例外，这是当前实践的逆转。
In any given future year, small rises in imprisonment are possible, but the macro trend is ineluctable: Society is going to experience the benefits of past decades of lower crime throughout its prison system. The imprisonment rate will be lower in five years and lower still in 10. Prisons will still exist then and still be needed, but the rate at which Americans are confined in them could be lower than anything in the preceding half century. This is the fruit of a lower-crime society—good in and of itself, surely, particularly for the low-income and majority-minority communities where most crime occurs. It will also, of course, be a blessing for those who avoid prison, and for the taxpayers who no longer have to pay for it. The decline in the prison population will be something everyone in our polarized society will have reason to celebrate.
在任何给定的未来一年中，监禁都是可能的，但是宏观趋势是不可避免的：社会将在整个监狱系统中经历过去几十年犯罪的好处。监禁率将在五年内降低，并且在10年中仍将降低。那时仍将存在并且仍然需要监狱，但是美国人被限制在他们中的速度可能低于前半个世纪的任何事物。这是一个低犯罪社会的果实 - 肯定是很好，特别是对于大多数犯罪发生的低收入和大多数少数社区。当然，对于那些避免入狱的人和不再需要付费的纳税人来说，这也将是一种祝福。监狱人口的下降将是我们两极分化社会中每个人都有理由庆祝的东西。
