The U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear sites this past weekend don’t seem to have launched a new American forever war, as some critics feared they would. Instead, they may have helped conclude, if inconclusively, a brief hot war between Iran and Israel.
上周末，美国对伊朗核场所的袭击似乎并没有发起新的美国永远的战争，因为一些批评家担心他们会发动。取而代之的是，如果不确定的话，他们可能会得出结论，这是伊朗和以色列之间的短暂热战。
Iran retaliated against the United States on Monday in a manner that has become typical by now: Before targeting a U.S. base in Qatar, Tehran gave enough advance notice to assure that no one was hurt. Shortly afterward, President Donald Trump made a statement thanking Iran for the warning—and then announced a cease-fire between Iran and Israel. “God Bless You Both!” Trump proclaimed on Truth Social to the two antagonists, just a day after having publicly considered pursuing regime change in Tehran.
伊朗周一对美国的报复，现在已经成为典型的方式：在以卡塔尔为基地之前，德黑兰发出了足够的预先通知，以确保没有人受伤。此后不久，唐纳德·特朗普总统发表了一份声明，感谢伊朗的警告，然后宣布伊朗和以色列之间停火。“上帝保佑你们俩！”特朗普在公开考虑在德黑兰进行政权改变的第二天就向两个对手宣布了真理社会。
This was not, of course, the end of the story. Iran and Israel fired ferociously at each other in the final few hours before the cease-fire was to take hold. The timing of that cease-fire was the source of some confusion, because there had been no formal agreement between Iran and Israel, just a general understanding. Trump scolded Israel for its attacks on Iran and then complained that the two countries don’t “know what the fuck they’re doing.”
当然，这不是故事的结尾。伊朗和以色列在停火前的最后几个小时互相猛烈射击。停火的时机是造成混乱的根源，因为伊朗和以色列之间没有正式的同意，这只是一般的理解。特朗普责骂以色列对伊朗的袭击，然后抱怨两国不知道他们在做什么。”
Both Iran and Israel have come away with some small victories, but the big ones have eluded them. Israel once again demonstrated the jaw-dropping extent of its intelligence penetration of Iran, which allowed it to find and kill several high-ranking military leaders and nuclear scientists. But even with the American participation it long coveted, Israel failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear program fully or take away its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Hundreds of Israeli civilians were injured in Iranian attacks, many homes were destroyed, and a few dozen civilians were killed, including five who perished in an Iranian attack on Beersheba minutes before the cease-fire took effect.
伊朗和以色列都取得了一些小的胜利，但大的胜利却避开了他们。以色列再次证明了其伊朗的情报渗透的令人jaw目结舌的程度，这使其能够找到并杀死几位高级军事领导人和核科学家。但是，即使是美国人的参与，以色列也未能充分摧毁伊朗的核计划，也没有消除其高度富集的铀的库存。数百名以色列平民在伊朗袭击中受伤，许多房屋被摧毁，几十名平民被杀，其中包括五名在停火前几分钟伊朗袭击贝尔什巴的袭击中丧生的人。
For its part, Iran’s regime proved resilient, even at the toughest hour of its history. Fantasies about the strikes igniting a popular uprising that would overthrow the regime proved empty. But the Islamic Republic was badly battered and humiliated. It lost control of its airspace, such that even its diplomats could travel only with permission from Israel. And the war’s shock to the Iranian system could still help spell doom for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
就其历史上最艰难的时刻，伊朗的政权也证明了韧性。关于罢工的幻想点燃了一种流行的起义，该起义将推翻该政权被证明是空的。但是伊斯兰共和国受到严重殴打和羞辱。它失去了对空域的控制权，因此，即使是外交官也可以在以色列许可的情况下旅行。战争对伊朗制度的震惊仍然可以帮助最高领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊（Ayatollah Ali Khamenei）拼写厄运。
Read: ‘Everybody knows Khamenei’s days are numbered’
阅读：“每个人都知道Khamenei的日子已经编号”
The 86-year-old leader, still apparently being kept out of public view, came across as inept. That the war happened at all is a testament to the failure of his policies. Khamenei has kept the chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” going for decades. But when Iran finally got into a direct confrontation with Israel, most of the dying was done by Iranian civilians. In the past two weeks, Iranian society showed a remarkable degree of social solidarity. This should not be confused with political support for the regime. On the contrary, many Iranians cursed the regime that had gotten them into this conflict.
这位86岁的领导人显然仍然不受公众的看法，遇到了无能的。战争发生的事情完全证明了他的政策失败。数十年来，哈梅内伊一直保持着“死亡”和“对以色列死亡”的颂歌。但是，当伊朗终于与以色列直接对抗时，大多数垂死是由伊朗平民完成的。在过去的两个星期中，伊朗社会表现出显着的社会团结。这不应与对政权的政治支持相混淆。相反，许多伊朗人诅咒使他们陷入冲突的政权。
A factional battle continues to rage within the Iranian political elite. Ever since 2002, when the Iranian nuclear program was revealed to the world, some elements inside the regime have sought to solve the resulting crisis through normalization with the West and integration with the global economy. These factions understand that getting sanctions lifted means compromising on the country’s nuclear program, and that improving relations with the West requires ending the hostile rhetoric and support for anti-Israeli militias. The pragmatists have reason to hope that the Israeli and American bombardment will ultimately strengthen their position by having shown the futility and destructiveness of Khamenei’s antagonism.
在伊朗政治精英中，一场派系斗争继续激烈。自2002年以来，伊朗核计划向全世界透露出来，该政权内部的某些要素一直试图通过与西方正常化并与全球经济相结合来解决造成的危机。这些派系理解，实现制裁意味着要妥协该国的核计划，并且改善与西方的关系需要结束对反以色列民兵的敌意言论和支持。实用主义者有理由希望以色列和美国轰炸最终通过表现出哈梅内尼对抗的徒劳和破坏性来加强自己的地位。
But other parts of the Islamic Republic remain committed to rejectionism. Upon attacking the U.S. base in Qatar, the Iranian armed forces issued a statement declaring the country’s goals to be the expulsion of American forces from the region and the “eradication of the cancerous tumor of Zion.” Such extreme slogans do not match the caution of Iran’s military actions. But the rhetorical hostility is deeply ingrained in the regime. For years, Iran threatened America and Israel with destruction but avoided getting into a direct war with either of them. Now it has experienced a fight with these enemies and may be forced to rethink its belligerent posture.
但是伊斯兰共和国的其他地区仍然致力于排斥主义。伊朗武装部队在袭击了卡塔尔的美国基地后发表声明，宣布该国的目标是从该地区驱逐了美军和“根除锡安癌肿瘤”。这样的极端口号与伊朗军事行动的警告不符。但是，在该政权中，言辞敌意根深蒂固。多年来，伊朗威胁着美国和以色列的破坏，但避免与他们俩进行直接战争。现在，它已经与这些敌人进行了战斗，并可能被迫重新考虑其好战的姿势。
Read: Five ways Iran may respond
阅读：伊朗可以做出回应的五种方式
That hasn’t happened yet for some Iranian hard-liners, who are attacking the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, for accepting a cease-fire. “Iran doesn’t need a ceasefire but to continue the resistance until it eradicates the Zionist regime,” Soodeh Najafi, a Tehran city councilor, wrote on X. “Israel’s defeat is definite and real peace will only come from its disappearance.”
对于一些正在袭击该国外交大臣阿巴斯·阿拉格奇（Abbas Araghchi）接受停火的伊朗艰难的人来说，这尚未发生。德黑兰市议员索德·纳贾菲（Soodeh Najafi）在X上写道：“伊朗不需要停火，直到消除犹太复国主义政权为止，直到它消除犹太复国主义政权为止。”
Other hard-liners are pushing Iran to stop cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Doing so would suggest that Tehran was pursuing a nuclear-weapons program in earnest. Saeed Jalili, a former national security adviser, has called on Iran to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which would amount to the same thing. Hard-liners dominate the Parliament and could pass a bill with that aim.
其他艰苦的努力正在敦促伊朗停止与国际原子能局合作。这样做会表明，德黑兰正在认真地进行核武器计划。前国家安全顾问Saeed Jalili呼吁伊朗离开《核不扩散条约》，这将构成同一件事。艰难的阵容主导了议会，并可以通过这一目标通过一项法案。
The Iranian Parliament remains a marginal institution, and extremists such as Najafi and Jalili have limited influence on Iranian policy for the moment. But they do carry special weight within the security apparatus, and they could encourage it to lash out at ordinary Iranians. Hard-liners are already threatening “traitors,” meaning anyone critical of the regime, with punishment. Many Iranians now fear that the regime will crack down on them to show its strength and ensure its stability after the Israeli and American attacks.
伊朗议会仍然是一个边际机构，纳贾菲和贾利利等极端主义者目前对伊朗政策的影响有限。但是它们确实在安全机构中具有特殊的重量，他们可以鼓励它对普通的伊朗人猛烈抨击。艰难的阵容已经在威胁“叛徒”，这意味着任何对政权批评的人，并受到惩罚。现在，许多伊朗人担心该政权会破坏他们的力量，并在以色列和美国袭击后确保其稳定。
If the cease-fire holds, however, the U.S. and Israel may seek to bring a weakened Iran back into talks about imposing limits on its nuclear program. Iran will need to decide what sort of diplomacy to pursue, given the damage its nuclear sites have suffered. Israel has shown that it can secure dominion over Iranian skies; Trump has shown that he won’t hesitate to use American force on Iranian soil. As Iran decides on its next move, it will be painfully aware of what the alternatives to negotiations can be.
但是，如果停火成立，美国和以色列可能会试图将弱势的伊朗重新引入有关对其核计划施加限制的谈判。鉴于其核场地遭受的损害，伊朗将需要决定要进行哪种外交。以色列表明，它可以确保对伊朗天空的统治。特朗普表明，他会毫不犹豫地在伊朗土壤上使用美洲部队。正如伊朗决定下一步行动的那样，它将痛苦地意识到谈判的替代方案。
