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On May 26, 1967, the Egyptian president, Gamal Abdel Nasser, issued the following statement about a war he planned to start: “The battle will be a general one and our basic objective will be to destroy Israel.” Nasser and other Arab leaders believed that the annihilation of the Jewish state was both certain and imminent. Several days later, the leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization, Ahmed al-Shuqayri, said, “We shall destroy Israel and its inhabitants and as for the survivors—if there are any—the boats are ready to deport them.” When he was asked about the fate of native-born Jews, he said, “Whoever survives will stay in Palestine, but in my opinion no one will remain alive.”
1967年5月26日，埃及总统Gamal Abdel Nasser发表了以下关于他计划开始的战争的声明：“这场战斗将是一项一项一项一项一项一项一项一项一项斗争，我们的基本目标是摧毁以色列。”纳赛尔和其他阿拉伯领导人认为，犹太国家的歼灭既确定又迫在眉睫。几天后，巴勒斯坦解放组织的领导人艾哈迈德·舒格里（Ahmed al-Shuqayri）说：“我们将摧毁以色列及其居民，以及至于幸存者（如果有的话），那么船就准备将其驱逐出境。”当他被问及当地出生的犹太人的命运时，他说：“任何人幸存下来的人都会留在巴勒斯坦，但在我看来，没有人会活着。”
A short while later, on June 5, the Israeli government, believing the sincerity of these threats, launched a preemptive attack on Egypt and Syria, destroying their air forces on the ground. Six days later, Israel had gained possession of the West Bank, East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip, and the Sinai Peninsula.
不久之后，6月5日，以色列政府认为这些威胁的诚意，对埃及和叙利亚发起了先发制人的袭击，摧毁了他们在地面上的空军。六天后，以色列拥有西岸，东耶路撒冷，戈兰高地，加沙地带和西奈半岛。
One would think that Yahya Sinwar, until recently the leader of Hamas in Gaza, had absorbed the lessons of 1967. But he overestimated his own capabilities, and those of the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance.” Like the leaders of Iran, he spoke violently and with great confidence. He allowed his reasoning capabilities to be overwhelmed by conspiracism and supremacist Muslim Brotherhood theology. He also made the same analytical mistake Nasser had made: He underestimated the desire of Israelis to live in their ancestral homeland, basing his conclusion on an incorrect understanding of how Israel sees itself.
人们会认为，直到最近，Yahya Sinwar还是加沙的哈马斯领导人，还吸收了1967年的课程。但是他高估了自己的能力，以及伊朗领导的“抵抗轴心”的能力。像伊朗的领导人一样，他充满信心地说话。他允许他的推理能力被阴谋和至上主义的穆斯林兄弟会神学所淹没。他还犯了同样的分析错误，纳赛尔犯了：他低估了以色列人生活在祖国家园的愿望，以对以色列如何看待自己的看法的不正确理解为基础。
In the end, the October 7 massacre Sinwar ordered did not cause the destruction of Israel but instead led to the dismantling of its enemies. Hamas is largely destroyed, and most of its leaders, including Sinwar, are dead, assassinated by Israel. Hezbollah, in Lebanon, is comprehensively weakened. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s main Arab ally, is in exile in Moscow, his country now led by Sunni Muslims hostile to Iran’s leaders. Iran’s skies are under the control of the Israeli Air Force, and its $500 billion nuclear program appears to be, at least partially, rubble and dust.
最后，10月7日被命令的大屠杀并没有造成以色列的毁灭，而是导致敌人拆除。哈马斯在很大程度上被摧毁了，其大多数领导人，包括辛瓦（Sinwar），死亡，被以色列暗杀。黎巴嫩的真主党被全面削弱。叙利亚的巴沙尔·阿萨德（Bashar al-Assad）是伊朗的主要阿拉伯盟友，他在莫斯科流放，他的国家现在由逊尼派穆斯林领导，敌对伊朗领导人。伊朗的天空在以色列空军的控制之下，其5000亿美元的核计划似乎至少部分是瓦砾和尘土。
Not since Nasser has anyone in the Middle East been proved so wrong so quickly.
自从纳赛尔（Nasser）在中东有任何人被证明是如此之快，没有自从中。
It is not at all clear how the latest Middle East war ends. It is not clear whether Iran and its proxies still possess the ability to hurt the United States and Israel in meaningful ways. And it is not clear if Israel will take advantage of its dramatic new security reality. But for now, there is a reasonable chance that the existential threat posed to Israel by the Iranian regime—ideologically committed to its destruction and to developing a weapon to carry out its vision—has been neutralized, perhaps for several years.
最新的中东战争如何结束并不清楚。目前尚不清楚伊朗及其代理人是否仍然具有有意义的方式伤害美国和以色列的能力。尚不清楚以色列是否会利用其巨大的新安全现实。但是就目前而言，伊朗政权对以色列构成的生存威胁很有可能被认为是对其毁灭和开发武器来执行其愿景的 - 可能已经被中和了几年了。
In 2001, the former president of Iran, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, said, “The use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything. However,” he added, “it will only harm the Islamic world.” For three decades, Israel and its longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, made the Iranian threat a singular preoccupation. But until the arrival of Donald Trump, no American president believed that the Iranian threat should be ended—to borrow from the language of the campus anti-Israel movement—by any means necessary.
2001年，伊朗前总统阿里·阿克巴（Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani）说：“甚至在以色列内部使用一枚核弹的使用将摧毁一切。但是，他补充说，“这只会损害伊斯兰世界。”在三十年的时间里，以色列及其任职时间最长的总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡（Benjamin Netanyahu）使伊朗威胁成为一个单一的关注。但是，在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）到来之前，没有美国总统认为伊朗威胁应以任何必要的方式结束 - 从校园反以色列运动的语言中借用。
Trump may yet be remembered as a hypocrite who promised a clean American exit from the Middle East but found his presidency—like those of Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan before him—hopelessly trapped in Iranian quicksand. His radical intervention in the Middle East may turn out to be catastrophic, particularly if Iran manages to find a quick way to save its nuclear program. But he could also be remembered as the president who averted a second Holocaust.
特朗普可能还会被铭记为伪君子，他承诺从中东退出清洁的美国人，但他的总统职位（例如吉米·卡特（Jimmy Carter）和罗纳德·里根（Ronald Reagan）的总统）在伊朗的速度方面无处不在。他对中东的激进干预可能是灾难性的，特别是如果伊朗设法找到一种挽救其核计划的方法。但是他也可以被铭记为避免第二次大屠杀的总统。
What is certain is that the conventional components of the Axis of Resistance are in dismal shape. The demolition of this axis happened because Israel, after the humiliation on October 7, reconstituted its fighting and intelligence capabilities in remarkably effective (and severely uncompromising) ways, and because Sinwar and his allies fundamentally misunderstood their enemy.
可以肯定的是，电阻轴的常规组成部分处于惨淡的状态。拆除该轴的发生之所以发生，是因为以色列在10月7日的屈辱之后，以非常有效（并且非常毫不妥协的）方式重新建立了其战斗和情报能力，以及辛瓦尔和他的盟友从根本上误解了他们的敌人。
The American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities happened because the country’s leaders misunderstood Trump. But to be fair to Iran’s leaders, Trump’s national-security and foreign-policy impulses have been confusing even to his own supporters. The closest I ever came to a clear understanding of his contradictory and sometimes incoherent policies was in 2018, at a lunch in the White House with one of his closest aides. We were discussing an article I had published a few years earlier in this magazine, about Barack Obama’s foreign policy, and I said that I thought it might be premature to discern a Trump equivalent. The official responded, “There’s definitely a Trump Doctrine.”
美国对伊朗核设施的袭击发生了，因为该国的领导人误解了特朗普。但是，对于伊朗的领导人来说，特朗普的民族安全和外国政策冲动也使自己的支持者感到困惑。我有史以来对他的矛盾的最接近，有时是不一致的政策是在2018年，在白宫的午餐中，他的最亲密的助手之一。我们正在讨论我几年前在本杂志上发表的一篇文章，内容涉及巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）的外交政策，我说我认为辨别同等的特朗普可能还为时过早。官员回答说：“肯定有一个特朗普学说。”
I asked him to describe it. He said, “The Trump Doctrine is ‘We’re America, Bitch.’ That’s the Trump Doctrine.”
我要求他形容它。他说：“特朗普学说是‘我们是美国，bit子。’这就是特朗普学说。”
The official continued, “Obama apologized to everyone for everything. He felt bad about everything.” Trump, he said, “doesn’t feel like he has to apologize for anything America does.” Another White House official explained it this way: “The president believes that we’re America, and people can take it or leave it.”
官员继续说：“奥巴马为所有人道歉。他对一切都感到难过。”他说，特朗普说：“他不必为美国所做的任何事情道歉。”另一位白宫官员这样解释了：“总统认为我们是美国，人们可以接受或离开它。”
The Trump Doctrine, as articulated this way, doesn’t leave much room for the contemplation of potential consequences. On the matter of Iran, in particular, Democratic presidents—Obama, most notably—spent a great deal of time studying second- and third-order consequences of theoretical American actions. It is not clear that Trump even understands the meaning of second-order consequences. This is one reason he struck Iran—because he was frustrated, and because he could—and one important reason the long-term outcome is uncertain.
以这种方式表达的特朗普学说并没有为沉思潜在后果留出太大的空间。关于伊朗的问题，尤其是民主总统（最著名的是奥巴马）大量时间研究理论美国行动的二阶和三阶后果。尚不清楚特朗普甚至了解二阶后果的含义。这就是他击中伊朗的原因之一 - 因为他感到沮丧，并且因为他可以 - 这是长期结果不确定的一个重要原因。
Sinwar’s misunderstanding of Israel was, if anything, deeper than Iran’s misunderstanding of Trump. Hamas and other Palestinian groups believe that Israelis see themselves as foreign implants, and therefore can easily be brought to defeat. Sinwar’s misplaced confidence in theories of settler colonialism and Jewish perfidy undermined his strategic effectiveness. Sinwar was so convinced of his beliefs that he even sponsored a conference in 2021 called “The Promise of the Hereafter—Post-Liberation Palestine,” in which specific plans were discussed for the building of Palestine on the ruins of Israel. “Educated Jews and experts in the areas of medicine, engineering, technology, and civilian and military industry should be retained in Palestine for some time and should not be allowed to leave and take with them the knowledge and experience that they acquired while living in our land and enjoying its bounty,” one presentation read.
辛瓦尔对以色列的误解（如果有的话）比伊朗对特朗普的误解更深刻。哈马斯和其他巴勒斯坦团体认为，以色列人将自己视为外国植入物，因此很容易被击败。辛瓦（Sinwar）对定居者殖民主义和犹太人的理论的信心放错了位置，削弱了他的战略效率。辛瓦（Sinwar）相信自己的信念，即他甚至赞助了2021年的一次会议，称为“以后的巴勒斯坦（Post-Priberation Passine）的承诺”，其中讨论了在以色列废墟上建立巴勒斯坦的具体计划。一项演讲阅读一份介绍。”一位演讲阅读。
The theme of this conference, which was held in Gaza, was an echo of a statement made by Hassan Nasrallah, then the leader of Hezbollah, who said in 2000, “This Israel, with its nuclear weapons and most advanced warplanes in the region, I swear by Allah, is actually weaker than a spider’s web … Israel may appear strong from the outside, but it’s easily destroyed and defeated.” Nasrallah was assassinated by Israel nine months ago.
这次会议的主题是在加沙举行的，是哈桑·纳斯拉拉（Hassan Nasrallah）的声明的回声，当时的真主党领袖，他在2000年说：“这是以色列的核武器和该地区最先进的战机，我在阿拉（Allah）发誓，实际上，我的网络更弱，比以色列更弱了，但很容易被摧毁，但它却很容易被摧毁，但它又毁灭了。纳斯拉拉九个月前被以色列暗杀。
I asked Yossi Klein Halevi, a senior fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute, in Jerusalem, to explain the root of this misapprehension. “The only way you can believe that Israel is Nasrallah’s spiderweb is if you believe that we don’t have substance here, that we’re not a rooted people,” he said. “The problem with Sinwar is that he believed his own propaganda. He believed that we ourselves believe that we don’t belong here. Our enemies in the Arab and Muslim worlds don’t understand that their perception of Israel and of Jews is based on a lie.”
我请耶路撒冷Shalom Hartman Institute的高级研究员Yossi Klein Halevi解释了这种误解的根源。他说：“唯一可以相信以色列是纳斯拉拉的蜘蛛网的方法是，如果您相信我们在这里没有实质，那我们不是扎根的人。”“辛瓦尔的问题是他相信自己的宣传。他相信我们自己相信我们不属于这里。我们在阿拉伯和穆斯林世界中的敌人不明白他们对以色列和犹太人的看法是基于谎言。”
If nothing else, the wars of the past 20 months have proved that Israel’s adversaries are not adept at analyzing political and social phenomena as they manifest in reality. Walter Russell Mead, the historian, once explained that a weakness of anti-Semites is that they have difficulty understanding the world as it actually works, and don’t comprehend cause and effect in either politics or economics. Sinwar, Nasrallah, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself saw Israel as they wished it was, not as it actually is. And in part because of this, they placed their movements in mortal danger.
如果没有别的，过去20个月的战争证明了以色列的对手并不擅长分析现实中所表现出的政治和社会现象。历史学家沃尔特·罗素·米德（Walter Russell Mead）曾经解释说，反犹太人的弱点是，他们很难理解世界的实际运作，并且在政治或经济学中都不理解因果关系。辛瓦尔（Sinwar），纳斯拉拉（Nasrallah）和阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊（Ayatollah Ali Khamenei）本人认为以色列的意愿，而不是实际的。在某种程度上，他们将运动置于致命危险中。
