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美国国债突破37万亿美元大关！特朗普总统本周刚通过号称"又大又美"的预算案，就给这个天文数字再添3万亿"装饰"。马斯克气得直骂"恶心"，全球投资者也开始用脚投票——美元汇率跌成"跳水冠军"，长期贷款利率飙升得像坐火箭。对冲基金教父达利奥警告：美国财政已到"悬崖边"，要么大幅加税，要么疯狂印钞，否则就要上演"全球金融系统大崩盘"！不过别担心，美国财长说我们仍是"最干净的脏衬衫"（至少比其他国家干净那么一丢丢）～
US debt is now $37tn – should we be worried?
美国国债突破37万亿美元——我们该担忧吗？
4 July 2025 Share Save Simon Jack BBC business editor Share Save
2025年7月4日 BBC商业主编西蒙·杰克
Getty Images
盖蒂图片社
As Donald Trump cheered the passage of his self-styled, and officially named, Big Beautiful Budget Bill through Congress this week, long-sown seeds of doubt about the scale and sustainability of US borrowing from the rest of the world sprouted anew.
当特朗普本周庆祝其自称"又大又美"的预算案在国会通过时，关于美国对外借款规模与可持续性的长期疑虑再度萌发。
Trump's tax-cutting budget bill is expected to add at least $3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) to the US's already eye-watering $37tn (£27tn) debt pile.
这项减税预算案预计将为美国本已惊人的37万亿美元债务再添至少3万亿美元。
There is no shortage of critics of the plan, not least Trump's former ally Elon Musk, who has called it a"disgusting abomination".
该计划不乏批评者，尤其是特朗普前盟友埃隆·马斯克，他称之为"恶心的怪物"。
The growing debt pile leaves some to wonder whether there is a limit to how much the rest of the world will lend Uncle Sam.
不断膨胀的债务让人怀疑世界其他国家还会借给美国多少钱。
Those doubts have been showing up recently in the weaker value of the dollar and the higher interest rate investors are demanding to lend money to America.
这些疑虑最近表现为美元贬值，以及投资者要求更高的利率才愿借钱给美国。
It needs to borrow this money to make up the difference between what it earns and what it spends every year.
美国需要借款来弥补其每年收支差额。
Since the beginning of this year, the dollar has fallen 10% against the pound and 15% against the euro.
今年以来，美元对英镑贬值10%，对欧元贬值15%。
Although US borrowing costs have been steady overall, the difference between the interest rates paid on longer-term loans versus shorter-term loans - what's known as the yield curve - has increased, or steepened, signalling increased doubts about the long-term sustainability of US borrowing.
尽管美国借贷成本总体稳定，但长期与短期贷款利率之差（即收益率曲线）已变陡，表明对美国长期借贷可持续性的疑虑加深。
And that is despite the fact that the US has lowered interest rates more slowly than the EU and the UK, which would normally make the dollar stronger because investors can get higher interest rates on bank deposits.
尽管美国降息速度慢于欧盟和英国（这通常会使美元走强，因投资者可获得更高存款利率），但情况依然如此。
The founder of the world's biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, believes that US borrowing is at a crossroads.
全球最大对冲基金创始人雷·达利奥认为，美国借贷正处于十字路口。
On its current trajectory he estimates the US will soon be spending $10tn a year in loan and interest repayments.
他估计按当前趋势，美国很快将每年支付10万亿美元本息。
"I am confident that the [US] government's financial condition is at an inflection point because, if this is not dealt with now, the debts will build up to levels where they can't be managed without great trauma," he says.
"我相信美国政府的财政状况正处于转折点，因为如果现在不处理，债务将累积到不经历巨大创伤就无法管理的水平，"他说。
So what might that trauma look like?
那么这种创伤可能是什么样？
The first option is a drastic reduction in government spending, a big increase in taxes or both.
第一种选择是大幅削减政府开支，大幅增税，或双管齐下。
Ray Dalio suggests that cutting the budget deficit from its current 6% to 3% soon could head off trouble in the future.
达利奥建议，将预算赤字从目前的6%尽快降至3%可避免未来麻烦。
Trump's new budget bill did cut some spending, but it also cut taxes more, and so the current political trajectory is going the other way.
特朗普的新预算案确实削减了一些开支，但减税幅度更大，因此当前政治轨迹正背道而驰。
Secondly, as in previous crises, the US central bank could print more money and use it to buy up government debt - as we saw after the great financial crisis of 2008.
其次，如同以往危机，美联储可能印更多钱来购买政府债务——就像2008年金融危机后那样。
But that can end up fuelling inflation and inequality as the owners of assets like houses and shares do much better than those who rely on the value of labour.
但这可能加剧通胀和不平等，因为房产和股票所有者将比依赖劳动价值者获益更多。
The third is a straightforward US default. Can't pay won't pay.
第三种是美国直接违约——"付不起也不付"。
Given that the"full faith and credit of the US Treasury" underpins the entire global financial system, that would make the great financial crisis look like a picnic.
鉴于"美国财政部的十足信用"支撑着整个全球金融体系，这将使大金融危机相形见绌。
'Cleanest dirty shirt'
"最干净的脏衬衫"
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has dismissed comparisons with Greece's debt crisis in 2009, insisting that US debt is the"cleanest dirty shirt" in the global financial laundry basket.
美国财长耶伦拒绝与2009年希腊债务危机相提并论，坚称美国债务是全球金融"脏衣篮中最干净的衬衫"。
She points out that while US debt-to-GDP ratio is high at 150%, Japan's is 260% and Italy's is 180%.
她指出，尽管美国债务与GDP之比高达150%，但日本为260%，意大利为180%。
"The dollar is still the world's reserve currency and US Treasuries remain the safest assets in times of crisis," she told the BBC.
"美元仍是世界储备货币，美国国债仍是危机时期最安全的资产，"她告诉BBC。
But even she admits that the current trajectory is unsustainable in the long run.
但就连她也承认，当前趋势长期不可持续。
"At some point, we will need to make tough choices about spending and taxes," she said.
"在某个时点，我们将需要在开支和税收上做出艰难选择，"她说。
For now though, the music is still playing and Uncle Sam is still dancing.
但目前，音乐仍在播放，山姆大叔仍在跳舞。
