32 nations but only one man matters - Nato's summit is all about Trump
32个国家，但只有一个人很重要 - 北约的峰会与特朗普有关
20 June 2025 Share Save Jonathan Beale Defence correspondent Share Save
2025年6月20日，股份节省乔纳森·比尔国防通讯员股份保存
Getty Images Nato's chief Mark Rutte (left) wants to give Donald Trump what he wants - higher defence spending by America's allies
盖蒂图像北约的首席马克·鲁特（Mark Rutte）（左）想给唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）他想要的东西 - 美国盟友的更高国防支出
Nato summits tend to be"pre-cooked", not least to present a united front. Secretary General Mark Rutte has already settled on the menu for their meeting at The Hague: one that will avoid a row with Nato's most powerful member, the US. A commitment to increase defence spending by European allies is the dish that President Donald Trump wants served – and that's exactly what he'll be getting. Though there will inevitably be the added ingredients of compromise and fudge. Nor will the summit be able to paper over the cracks between Trump and many of his European allies on trade, Russia and the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The US president, whose mantra is America First, is not a huge fan of multinational organisations. He has been highly critical of Nato too – even questioning its very foundation of collective defence. In Trump's first term, at his first Nato summit, he berated European allies for not spending enough and owing the US"massive amounts of money". On that message he has at least been consistent.
北约峰会往往是“预先煮熟的”，尤其是呈现统一的战线。秘书长马克·鲁特（Mark Rutte）已经在菜单上定居在海牙开会：避免与北约最强大的成员美国的一行。唐纳德·特朗普总统希望为增加国防支出的承诺是唐纳德·特朗普总统想要服务的菜 - 这正是他将要获得的。尽管不可避免地会增加妥协和软糖的成分。峰会也无法就特朗普与他许多欧洲盟友之间的贸易，俄罗斯和中东不断升级的冲突进行纸质撰写。美国总统的口头禅是美国的首先是跨国组织的忠实拥护者。他也对北约也很批评 - 甚至质疑其集体防御的基础。在特朗普的第一任期中，在北约的第一次峰会上，他指责欧洲盟国的花费不够，并欠美国“大量的钱”。在这个消息上，他至少是一致的。
Getty Images European countries are upping defence spending - in part because of Trump, in part because of Putin
盖蒂图像欧洲国家正在提高国防支出 - 部分原因是特朗普，部分原因是普京
Mark Rutte, who has a good relationship with the US president, has worked hard to give him a win. The summit takes place at the World Forum in The Hague over two days, on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Now the main discussions will last just three hours and the summit statement is being reduced to five paragraphs, reportedly because of the US president's demands. Trump is one of 32 leaders from the Western defensive alliance who are coming, along with the heads of more than a dozen partner countries. Dutch police have mounted their biggest ever security operation for the most expensive Nato summit so far, at a cost of €183.4m (£155m; $210m). Some have suggested the brevity of the summit is in part to cater to the US president's attention span and dislike of long meetings. But a shorter summit with fewer subjects discussed will, more importantly, help hide divisions. Ed Arnold, of the defence think tank Rusi, says Trump likes to be the star of the show and predicts he'll be able to claim that he's forced European nations to act. In truth he's not the first US president to criticise allies' defence spending. But he's had more success than most. Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to Nato, admits that some European governments do not like the way Trump's gone about it – demanding that allies spend 5% of their GDP on defence.
与美国总统有良好关系的马克·鲁特（Mark Rutte）努力赢得他的胜利。峰会于下周星期二和星期三在海牙的世界论坛举行。现在，主要讨论将持续三个小时，据报道，由于美国总统的要求，峰会声明被简化为五个段落。特朗普是来自西方防守联盟的32名领导人之一，他们以及十几个伙伴国家的负责人。到目前为止，荷兰警方已经为北约最昂贵的北约峰会举办了有史以来最大的安全行动，耗资1.834亿欧元（1.55亿英镑； 2.1亿美元）。一些人建议峰会的简洁性部分是为了迎合美国总统的关注范围和对长会议的不喜欢。但是，讨论的主题更少的峰会将有助于隐藏分裂。国防智囊团鲁西（Rusi）的埃德·阿诺德（Ed Arnold）说，特朗普喜欢成为该节目的明星，并预测他将能够声称自己迫使欧洲国家采取行动。实际上，他不是第一位批评盟友国防支出的美国总统。但是他比大多数人都取得了更多的成功。前美国驻北约大使库尔特·沃尔克（Kurt Volker）承认，一些欧洲政府不喜欢特朗普的发展方式 - 要求盟友将其GDP的5％花在国防上。
Getty Images Since his first term in office, Donald Trump has consistently demanded that Nato allies pay more towards their defence
唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）自任期任期以来，盖蒂（Getty）的图像一直要求北约盟友为他们的辩护支付更多费用
Europe still only accounts for 30% of Nato's total military spending. Volker says many Europeans now admit they that"we needed to do this, even if it's unfortunate that it took such a kick in the pants". Some European nations are already boosting their defence spending to 5% of their GDP. Most are the countries living in close proximity to Russia – such as Poland, Estonia and Lithuania. It's not just Trump who's been piling on the pressure. Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine is forcing a response. But in reality many Nato members will struggle to meet the new target. A few haven't met the goal of 2%, set more than a decade ago. Rutte's compromise formula is for allies to increase their core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% towards defence-related expenditure. But the definition of defence-related expenditure appears to be so vague that it might be rendered meaningless. Rutte says it could include the cost of industry of infrastructure – building bridges, roads and railways. Ed Arnold, of Rusi, says it'll inevitably lead to more"creative accounting". Even if, as expected, the new spending target is approved, some nations may have little intent of reaching it – by 2032 or 2035. The timescale's still unclear. Spain's prime minister has already called it unreasonable and counterproductive. Sir Keir Starmer hasn't even been able to say when the UK will spend 3% of its GDP of defence. The UK prime minister only said that it was an ambition some time in the next parliament. However, given the UK government's stated policy of putting Nato at the heart of the UK's defence policy, Sir Keir will have to back the new plan. The real danger is to interpret the demand for an increase in defence spending as arbitrary, a symbolic gesture – or just bowing to US pressure. It's also driven by Nato's own defence plans on how it would respond to an attack by Russia. Rutte himself has said that Russia could attack a Nato country within five years.
欧洲仍然仅占北约军事支出的30％。沃尔克说，许多欧洲人现在承认他们“我们需要做到这一点，即使不幸的是，它在裤子上踢了这样的脚步”。一些欧洲国家已经将其国防支出提高到其GDP的5％。大多数是靠近俄罗斯的国家，例如波兰，爱沙尼亚和立陶宛。不仅是特朗普在压力上堆积。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）入侵乌克兰正在迫使回应。但实际上，许多北约成员将难以实现新目标。十多年前，一些人还没有达到2％的目标。鲁特（Rutte）的妥协公式是盟友将其核心国防支出提高到GDP的3.5％，而与防御相关的支出又增加了1.5％。但是，与防御相关的支出的定义似乎是如此模糊，以至于可能毫无意义。鲁特说，这可能包括基础设施行业的成本 - 建筑桥梁，道路和铁路。Rusi的Ed Arnold说，它不可避免地会导致更多的“创意会计”。即使正如预期的那样，新的支出目标已被批准，到2032年或2035年，一些国家可能几乎没有意图达到目标。时间表仍然不清楚。西班牙总理已经称其不合理和适得其反。Keir Starmer爵士甚至无法说英国何时将其支出其GDP的3％。英国总理只说这是下一个议会的野心。但是，鉴于英国政府的规定政策是将北约置于英国国防政策的核心，基尔爵士将不得不支持新计划。真正的危险是将对国防支出增加的需求解释为任意，象征性的手势，或者只是屈服于我们的压力。它也是由北约自己的国防计划驱动的，该计划将如何应对俄罗斯的袭击。鲁特本人表示，俄罗斯可以在五年内攻击北约一个国家。
Getty Images Russian forces are still driving into Ukraine - and there are fears it could invade other European states
盖蒂图像俄罗斯部队仍在驱车进入乌克兰 - 有些担心会侵入其他欧洲国家
